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• Prior was 0.617m
• Median sales price: vs $417,300 prior
• Seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July vs 476,000 prior

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Ahead of the speech, the market was pricing in a 28% chance of 50 bps, 97 bps through December and 193 bps at this time next year.

Here is a live feed but there is no Q&A and the text was pre-released.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US equity futures are strong after a poor day yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 1.1% yesterday and the Nasdaq fell 1.8%. Futures show a 0.6% gain for the S&P 500 and 1.0% in the Nasdaq.

The S&P 500 is on pace to enter Jackson Hole with the second strongest year-to-date performance since the year 2000.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian rail workers are coming back on the job after a short-lived lockout of both national railways.

CN workers have taken down picket lines while CP workers are still awaiting the official order but that should be coming imminently.

Minister of Labour Steven MacKinnon ordered the move:

“These collective bargaining negotiations belong to
CN Rail, CPKC and TCRC alone — but their effects, and the impacts of the
current impasse, are being borne by all Canadians,” MacKinnon said.

“As
Minister of Labour, it is my assessment that the parties are at a
fundamental impasse. Therefore, it is my duty and responsibility to
invoke my authorities under the Canada Labour Code to secure industrial
peace and deliver the short and long-term solutions that are in the
national interest.”

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• May was -0.8%
• Preliminary June was -0.3%
• Sales down 0.5% in Q2
• Preliminary July +0.6%
• Ex autos +0.3% vs -0.2% expected
• Prior ex-autos -1.3% (revised to -1.2%)
• Ex autos and gasoline +0.4% vs -1.4% prior

These are some good numbers from the Canadian consumer. The ex autos number for June is a surprise while the July preliminary reading is a big surprise, given some soft indications.

The drag in the June report was autos, which fell 2.1%, led by new cars at -2.9%. It’s part of the ongoing weight from high interest rates that’s also dragging down everything housing related.

Within core retail sales, the +0.4% rise was led by higher sales at food and beverage retailers (+1.2%), which were driven by supermarkets and other grocery retailers (except convenience
retailers) (+1.8%). Gains at beer, wine and liquor retailers (+0.4%)
and specialty food retailers (+0.5%) were offset by lower sales at
convenience retailers and vending machine operators (-1.9%).

The
largest decrease in core retail sales in June came from sporting goods,
hobby, musical instrument, book, and miscellaneous retailers (-0.8%).

Overall, I can’t see this as anything but good news and it should put to bed the idea of a 50 bps cut in September.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The main highlight of the day for North American traders comes at 10 am ET with Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (US new home sales are due at the same time). Before that, Canada gets a moment in the spotlight with June retail sales at 8:30 am ET.

The consensus is -0.3%, which was the preliminary reading. A big revision to that would be notable but if not, the focus will be on the advance July reading. RBC’s consumer tracker — which relies on credit card data — showed a decline of 0.6% so that’s a decent baseline for what’s expected, as there is no consensus.

A soft reading would add to the BOC to cut, perhaps more than 25 bps on Sept 4. Right now, pricing is 94% for 25 bps and 6% for 50 bps.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• Preview: What to expect from Powell at Jackson Hole
• From angst to relief for US equities?
• GBP/USD lingers near the 2023 high as buyers hope for a breakout to end the week
• France August business confidence 97 vs 94 prior
• BOJ governor Ueda reaffirms closely watching market moves with high sense of urgency
• BOJ governor Ueda: Markets remain unstable, moves have been volatile
• BOJ governor Ueda plays down any differing policy stance with deputy governor Uchida
• Japan finance minister says FX intervention in July was effective
• ECB’s Kazāks: No reason now not to follow through on projection for rate cuts

Markets:

• AUD leads, USD and CHF lag on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 3.848%
• Gold up 0.6% to $2,498.53
• WTI crude up 1.3% to $73.96
• Bitcoin up 0.2% to $60,781

It was a quieter session with little in terms of market news flowing through. All eyes are on Fed chair Powell’s appearance later in Jackson Hole and that is captivating the attention of market players for now.

The dollar is somewhat sluggish again today, after having recovered a little in trading yesterday. On the week itself, it remains vulnerable to further declines across the board.

USD/JPY was an active pair in Asia amid remarks from BOJ governor Ueda in a parliamentary hearing. But the pair stuck around 145.60-10 in European morning trade, now down just 0.1% at 146.05.

Besides that, the dollar is leaning on the softer side against the higher beta currencies. GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3125 and eyeing its 2023 high while AUD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6730 on the day.

That comes as equities are in a more cheerful mood, after getting checked back a little in trading yesterday. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% as investors are turning angst to relief ahead of Powell’s remarks later.

If you’ll be in Sydney next week, do drop by and give a hello as Eamonn and myself will be at the Finance Magnates Pacific Summit from 27 to 29 August. The attendance is free and I’ll be presenting on how one can approach trading just as you would picking up a sport. Have a great weekend, everyone!

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 26/08/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It’s been fairly one way traffic for equities since Asia trading. S&P 500 futures were lightly changed earlier in the day but are now up by roughly 0.5% ahead of US trading. Wall Street opened higher yesterday but surrendered gains during the session to close modestly lower. It can be argued that there was some pre-Powell angst perhaps but that looks to be clearing up now.

So, what exactly can we expect from the Fed chair later?

I won’t expect him to rock the boat amid fears of stirring up another volatility bout in markets. As such, it is likely that Powell should just reaffirm that they are looking to cut rates next month. But whether it be 25 bps or 50 bps, that is something that he won’t pre-commit to surely.

In other words, Powell will try to play it safe. The question is, will markets sense some relief for that? Or are they going to kick and scream again to force a 50 bps move? The current pricing shows that the odds of a 50 bps rate cut are priced at ~26%. So, there is some backpedaling to do there if the Fed doesn’t deliver.

That being said, there was no issue for risk trades when we went back from six rate cuts at the end of last year to just one by May. So, what’s a quarter pricing extra of 25 bps eh?

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The pound has quietly been an outperformer among the major currencies in trading this year. Amid a more resilient economy and stickier inflation, the BOE has seen their rate cut plans pushed back. And that has helped to underpin the currency as most other major central banks are on track to cut rates further.

The latest to fall in that domino is the dollar, having endured a rather punishing last two weeks. In turn, GBP/USD has made significant progress in a push from 1.2800 to now above 1.3100.

And as we look to close out the week, buyers are taking aim at the 2023 high of 1.3142 currently.

Another notable development in August is that we are seeing price push above its 100-month moving average of 1.2926. GBP/USD has had a long history of struggle against its key monthly moving averages, stretching all the way back to 2008. And so, a firm break here could very well open up scope for a stronger upside push alongside the other technical levels highlighted above.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to the divergence between the BOE and Fed. And of course how quickly things will narrow once inflation pressures in the UK begins to come under control.

But with the dollar stumbling across multiple charts, it’s tough to argue against a softer backdrop for the US currency – at least for now.

All eyes will be on Fed chair Powell next to see if he will deliver another blow to the greenback before the weekend.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As the dollar bounced back a little, gold fell by 1% and more importantly back under the $2,500 mark. Price is still keeping above the previous triple top pattern around $2,480 but buyers will be hoping to clinch a more convincing push above the figure level to solidify the breakout status.

Instead, price action focus now turns towards the near-term chart as seen above.

The drop under $2,500 sees gold move back to test its 200-hour moving average (blue line) and buyers are holding for now. Keep above that and buyers will still be in it with a shout as we look to close out the week. But break below and sellers will start to resume near-term control for the first time since the start of August.

Fed chair Powell’s appearance is the key risk event to watch in the day ahead. That will matter for both dollar and bond market sentiment.

As such, gold will have to work with the reaction to that to wrap things up this week. For now, price action is sitting in a more neutral spot in the near-term. That considering we are seeing price trade back in between its 100 (red line) and 200-hour moving averages. And also with the $2,500 level in focus too.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.2%
• Germany DAX +0.2%
• France CAC 40 +0.3%
• UK FTSE +0.3%
• Spain IBEX +0.6%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.6%

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% as risk sentiment holds steadier to start the session. All eyes are on Fed chair Powell’s appearance later today to set the mood before the weekend. It is anticipated that he will confirm expectations of a rate cut in September. I wouldn’t expect him to be too explicit about it though. But we’ll see.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.