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• Prior was -6.7%
• New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 9.9% to $289.6 billion in July
• Blows past market forecasts, reverses June’s 6.9% decline
• Transportation equipment orders skyrocketed 34.8% to $102.2 billion, driving the increase
• Ex-transport -0.2% vs -0.1% expected
• Prior ex-transport +0.4% (revised to +0.1%)
• Excluding defense, new orders rose 10.4% vs -7.2% prior (revised to -7.5%)
• Nondefense capital goods orders (ex-aircraft) slipped 0.1%vs +0.0% expected
• Prior nondefense capital goods orders +0.9% (revised to +0.5%)
• Unfilled orders up 0.2% to $1,386.5 billion, marking 47 increases in 48 months
• Inventories inched up 0.1% to $529.7 billion

Core orders are soft and were revised lower previously. This report is soft as the lumpy transport number hides a weakening in the underlying data. That said, the decline isn’t dramatic and this report has offered little edge since the pandemic.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production
• WTI extends gains with news that Libya will be stopping all production and exports
• Earnings in focus this week again with Nvidia
• Germany received a tip-off about potential Russian sabotage act at a NATO site
• FX not playing ball with commodities and equity performance today
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow sitting at 2%
• Germany Aug Ifo business climate index 86.6 vs 86.0 expected
• Heads up that this week is month-end
• Weekly update on interest rates expectations
• Riksbank meeting minutes
• Markets hold to a view of >100 bp of cuts for the Fed by year-end
• What are the main events for today?
• Swiss Non-Farm Payrolls 5.499 vs 5.484M prior
• Conditions for sustained USD weakness not fully in place
• Japan leading indicator -2.1 vs -2.6 prior
• Equity and bond expectations divergence likely to be bullish for the USD
• India GDP seen at 6.9% in April to June vs 7.8% in previous quarter
• Most commodities are trading in the red apart from oil

Markets:

• JPY leads, NZD lags on the day
• European equities flat; S&P
  500 futures up 0.15%
• US 10-year yields up 2 bps
  to 3.81%
• Gold
  up 0.36% to $2,521
• WTI
  crude up 2.69% to $76.84
• Bitcoin down 0.48% to $63,953

It was a classic
quiet Monday session with little in terms of market moving data releases. The
only highlight was the German IFO reading which came out basically in line with
estimates.

The only major
news was the Libyan eastern-based government declaring the closing down of all oil
fields and halting production and exports as a force majeure announced in
response to the attempts to take over the central bank by the Tripoli-based
government.

In the
markets, there’s been very little movement with just crude oil getting the
attention following the Libyan news as the price shot 1.5% higher and counting.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Oil continues to extent on gains after Libya announced a force majeure on all facilities, terminals and oil fields.

Next major resistance on the chart is the 200DMA coming up around $77.76. It also has confluence with the 2 standard deviation implied volatility high for the day.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Libya’s Al Waha Company says it will start partial reduction in production, “continued pressure” will lead to complete halt – statement.

Oil continues to grind higher on the news with WTI testing close to $76.50.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Libyan eastern-based government says all oil fields closing down, halting production and exports – statement.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The poster child of the AI theme is reporting earnings this week, with options markets implying a close to 10% move for Ndivia on their earnings release this week.

Given the over 6% weighting in the S&P and close to 12% weighting in the Nasdaq it can really move the needle should earnings offer meaningful positive or negative surprises.

At this stage it feels like a lot of good news have been priced in, and arguably means that the size of beat and guidance needs to be solid to hold up to what is priced.

Another name to keep on the radar is Salesforce with a chunky weighting of close to 5% in the Dow.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Germany received a tipoff from a foreign intelligence service on a possible Russian act of sabotage at a NATO site – NTV has been noted as the source.

Apparently the tip-off alleged the potential act could involve a drone.

Markets have grown very desensitized to geopolitical updates like these, and so far markets have not taken much notice of this as the details are thin, but as always something worth keeping in mind should we get further developments/details.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

Sentiment remains mixed as we head deeper into today’s EU session.

• FX continues to follow its own path on the sentiment side today with safe haven JPY and CHF maintaining their lead, while high beta AUD and NZD are the clear laggards.

• US and EMEA equity futures have found a bit more love this morning, while the ASX200 has taken the lead. However, the two underperformers (CN50 and the Nikkei) from earlier is still down on the session, albeit off their lows.

• Yields are mixed with only very marginal flows so far across 2’s, 5’s and 10’s.

• Commodities are trading comfortably in the green this morning (apart from Natgas which is doing natgas things down close to 2%). Silver is in the lead up over 1% with oil not too far behind it.

There is very little for markets to get excited about today’s calendar and fundamental news flows has been fairly light.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

The most recent update for the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is sitting at 2%.

This number can of course still be revised lower thoughout the quarter should US data push lower.

But as it stands at 2%, it makes the case for 50bp (emergency) cuts from the Fed a bit of a strange one.

All eyes on the incoming labour data.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

German Ifo Business Climate index: 86.6 vs 86.0 expected

German Ifo Current Conditions index 86.5 vs 86.5 expected

German Ifo Expectations index 86. vs 86.5 expected

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.

It’s that time of the month again with Friday the last trading day of the month and corporate month-end coming up on Wednesday.

Month-end flows: Usually a time when big investors, like pension funds and mutual funds, might adjust or rebalance their portfolios at the end of each month.

Corporate month-end flows: financial activities from corporates which can include things like hedging, converting foreign profits back into their home currency, paying dividends, or settling bills in other jurisdictions.

These flows can be varied and can be difficult to plan for and predict, with price action often doing the opposite of what many month-end quant models might suggest.

For the most part, I find it good enough to be aware of these potential flows and try to stay clear of them as much as possible, especially around the 4PM London fix.

That also means if we see massive one-sided buying or selling of a major currency without any fresh fundamental catalyst it could be a sign of month-end flows.

This article was written by Arno V Venter at www.forexlive.com.