Japanese Yen recovers losses ahead of Fed Powell’s second testimony

401479 July 10, 2024 12:14 FXStreet Market News

The
Japanese
Yen
struggles
as
the
US
Dollar
gains
momentum
after
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell’s
testimony
on
Tuesday.
The
Bank
of
Japan
is
poised
to
assess
a
viable
strategy
for
scaling
back
its
government
bond
purchases.
Powell
stated
that
a
rate
cut
is
not
appropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
confidence
that
inflation
is
moving
toward
2%.

The
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
depreciates
for
the
third
successive
session
on
Wednesday.
The
rise
in
the

USD/JPY
pair
is
driven
by
the
strengthening
US
Dollar
(USD),
which
gained
momentum
after

Federal
Reserve
Chairman
Jerome
Powell’s
testimony
before
the
US
Congress
on
Tuesday.
Powell
noted
improved
inflation
figures
but
maintained
the
Fed’s
cautious
approach.

The
Bank
of
Japan
(BoJ)
may
raise
interest
rates
during
its
July
meeting
and
unveil
plans
to
taper
its
bond
purchases.
On
Tuesday,
Japan’s
Finance
Minister
Shunichi
Suzuki
underscored
the
significance
of
maintaining
fiscal
discipline
to
bolster
confidence
in
long-term
fiscal
health.
Suzuki
also
mentioned
monitoring
closely
the
discussions
at
the

BoJ
meeting
concerning
the
bond
market,
as
reported
by
Reuters.

Traders
anticipate
several
key
events
in
the
financial
markets.
These
include
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell’s
second
semi-annual
testimony,
speeches
by
Fed
officials
Michelle
Bowman
and
Austan
Goolsbee,
and
the
release
of
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
scheduled
for
Thursday.

Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Japanese
Yen
declines
due
to
the
hawkish
stance
of
Fed’s
Powell

Japan’s
Producer
Price
Index
(YoY)
rose
by
2.9%
in
June,
accelerating
from
an
upwardly
revised
2.6%
increase
in
the
previous
month,
in
line
with
market
expectations.
This
marks
the
41st
consecutive
month
of
rise
in
producer
inflation
and
represents
the
highest
level
since
August
2023.
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
stated
in his
Congressional
testimony
on
Tuesday,
“More
good
data
would
strengthen
our
confidence
in
inflation.”
Powell
emphasized
that
a
“Policy
rate
cut
is
not
appropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
greater
confidence
that
inflation
is
headed
sustainably
toward
2%.”
He
also
noted
that
“first-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.”
According
to
a
Bloomberg
report
on
Tuesday,
the
Bank
of
Japan
is
conducting
three
in-person
meetings
with
banks,
securities
firms,
and
financial
institutions
over
the
next
few
days.
The
purpose
of
these
meetings
is
to
assess
a
feasible
pace
for
scaling
back
its
purchases
of
Japanese
Government
Bonds.
The
Japanese
Yen
struggles
due
to
overseas
asset
purchases
by
Japanese
individuals
through
the
newly
revamped
tax-free
investment
scheme,
the
Nippon
Individual
Savings
Account
(NISA)
program.
According
to
Nikkei
Asia,
the
scale
of
these
purchases
is
expected
to
exceed
the
country’s
trade
deficit
during
the
first
half
of
this
year.
Japan’s
Ministry
of
Finance
reported
on
Monday
that
Japanese
investment
trust
management
companies
and
asset
management
firms
bought
¥6.16
trillion
($38
billion)
more
in
offshore
equities
and
investment
fund
shares
than
they
sold
during
the
first
six
months
of
the
year.
On
Monday,
the
Bank
of
Japan
(BOJ)
maintained
its
economic
assessment
for
five
of
Japan’s
nine
regions
in
its
latest
‘Sakura
Report’.
The
assessment
for
two
regions
was
raised,
while
it
was
lowered
for
another
two
regions
in
the
report
released
on
Monday.
Regarding
price
trends,
the
BoJ
noted
that
many
regions
report
wage
hikes
spreading
among
smaller
firms.

Technical
Analysis:
USD/JPY
rises
to
near
161.50

USD/JPY
trades
around
161.50
on
Wednesday.
The
pair
is
maintaining
its
upward
trajectory
within
an
ascending
channel
pattern,
suggesting
a
bullish
bias
according
to
daily
chart
analysis.
Adding
to
this
bullish

outlook,
the
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
remains
above
the
50
level,
reinforcing
the
strength
of
the
upward
trend.

Looking
ahead,
the
USD/JPY
pair
may
target
a
critical
resistance
level
near
162.70,
positioned
at
the
upper
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel.
A
successful
breakout
above
this
level
could
bolster
bullish
sentiment,
potentially
propelling
the
pair
toward
the
psychological
resistance
at
163.00.

On
the
downside,
initial
support
for
the
USD/JPY
pair
is
anticipated
around
the
21-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
at
159.96.
A
breach
below
this
level
might
exert
pressure,
prompting
a
test
of
the
lower
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel
around
159.60.
Further
decline
below
this
channel
support
could
lead
the
pair
toward
the
vicinity
of
June’s
low
at
154.55.

USD/JPY:
Daily
Chart

Japanese
Yen
PRICE
Today

The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
Japanese
Yen
was
the
weakest
against
the
British
Pound.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.06%	-0.08%	0.08%	-0.06%	-0.05%	0.59%	-0.02%
EUR	0.06%		0.00%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.63%	0.03%
GBP	0.08%	-0.01%		0.14%	0.02%	-0.01%	0.62%	0.01%
JPY	-0.08%	-0.14%	-0.14%		-0.12%	-0.14%	0.45%	-0.14%
CAD	0.06%	-0.02%	-0.02%	0.12%		0.00%	0.62%	-0.00%
AUD	0.05%	-0.00%	0.00%	0.14%	0.00%		0.62%	0.00%
NZD	-0.59%	-0.63%	-0.62%	-0.45%	-0.62%	-0.62%		-0.61%
CHF	0.02%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.14%	0.00%	-0.00%	0.61%

The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
Japanese
Yen
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
JPY
(base)/USD
(quote).

Bank
of
Japan
FAQs

Full Article

Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Bitcoin eyes upside move on bullish technicals

401475 July 10, 2024 12:14 FXStreet Market News

Bitcoin
price
action
shows
a
bullish
divergence
on
the
momentum
indicators,
signaling
a
bullish
move.
Ethereum
finds
support
around
the
key
level
at
$2,817,
with
an
impending
rally
eyed.
Ripple
price
finds
support
around
the
weekly
support
level
of
$0.413,
with
potential
recovery
on
the
cards.

Bitcoin
(BTC)
price
action
indicates
a
bullish
signal
from
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Awesome
Oscillator
(AO)
indicators,
foretelling
an
upward
trend.
Ethereum
(ETH)
and
Ripple
(XRP)
are
mirroring
Bitcoin’s
path,
finding
stability
at
critical
levels
and
suggesting
potential
price
increases
shortly.

Bitcoin
price
looks
promising
as
technical
indicators
show
bullish
divergence

Bitcoin
price
encountered
resistance
at
the
weekly
resistance
level
of
$58,375
in
the
past
four
days
and
trades
below
it
around
$57,810,
0.56%
down
on
Wednesday.

Additionally,
the
formation
of
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
chart
on
July
5
contrasts
with
the
Relative
Strength
Index’s
(RSI)
higher
high
during
the
same
period.
This
development
is
termed
a
bullish
divergence
and
often
leads
to
the
reversal
of
the
trend
or
a
short-term
rally.

If
BTC
closes
above
the
$58,375
weekly
resistance
level,
it
could
rise
9%
to
revisit
the
daily
resistance
at
$63,956.

BTC/USDT daily chart

BTC/USDT
daily
chart

However,
if
BTC
closes
below
the
$52,266
daily
support
level
and
forms
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
time
frame,
it
could
indicate
that
bearish
sentiment
persists.
Such
a
development
may
trigger
a
4%
decline
in
Bitcoin’s
price
to
revisit
its
daily
low
of
$50,521
from
February
23.

Ethereum
price
eyes
rally
following
support
retest

Ethereum
price
found
support
on
Monday
at
the
$2,817
low
of
May
1,
bouncing
1.58%
the
next
day.
At
the
time
of
writing,
it
trades
0.49%
down
at
$3,059
on
Wednesday.

If
ETH
closes
above
the
$3,240
level,
it
could
rise
8.8%
to
retest
its
daily
high
from
July
1
at
$3,524.

The
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Awesome
Oscillator
(AO)
on
the
daily
chart
are
below
their
respective
neutral
levels
of
50
and
zero.
For
bulls
to
sustain
momentum,
both
indicators
must
rise
above
these
critical
levels,
potentially
supporting
the
ongoing
recovery
rally.

Additionally,
if
ETH
closes
above
the
$3,240
level,
it
could
extend
an
additional
rise
of
5.5%
to
retest
its
next
daily
high
at
$3,717
from
June
9.

ETH/USDT daily chart

ETH/USDT
daily
chart

On
the
other
hand,
if
Ethereum’s
daily
candlestick
price
closes
below
$2,817,
forming
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
time
frame,
it
could
indicate
that
bearish
sentiment
persists.
Such
a
development
may
trigger
a
7%
decline
in
Ethereum’s
price
to
revisit
its
daily
support
at
$2,621.

Ripple
price
shows
potential
recovery
rally

Ripple
price
found
support
around
the
weekly
level
of
$0.413
on
Monday
and
bounced
1%
the
next
day.
At
the
time
of
writing,
it
trades
0.2%
down
at
$0.434
on
Wednesday.

If
XRP’s
daily
close
above
the
$0.450
level,
it
could
rally
11%
to
revisit
its
daily
resistance
at
$0.499.

Additionally,
if
XRP
closes
below
the
$0.499
level,
it
could
extend
an
additional
rise
of
6.4%
to
retest
its
next
daily
high
at
$0.532
from
June
5.

XRP/USDT daily chart

XRP/USDT
daily
chart

Conversely,
if
the

Ripple
price
daily

candlestick
closes
below
$0.413
and
forms
a
lower
daily
low,
it
could
indicate
that
bearish
sentiment
persists.
Such
a
development
may
trigger
a
16%
crash
in
Ripple’s
price
to
revisit
its
low
of
March
12
at
$0.347.

Full Article

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: RBNZ leans more dovish, NZD drops

401474 July 10, 2024 11:40 Forexlive Latest News Market News

The
two
items
of
most
interest
during
the
session
here
were
the
inflation
data
from
China
and
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
monetary
policy
Review
for
July.

The
RBNZ
dropped
a
dovish
bombshell.
I
explained
it
at
the
time
(see
bullets
above):

***

From
the
RBNZ
statement:

Committee
expecting
headline
inflation
to
return
to
within
the
1
to
3
percent
target
range
in
the
second
half
of
this
year

If
that’s
the
case
why
wouldn’t
we
expect
a
rate
cut
soon?
I
think
the
RBNZ
agree,
judging
by
this:

The
Committee
agreed
that
monetary
policy
will
need
to
remain
restrictive.
The
extent
of
this
restraint
will
be
tempered
over
time
consistent
with
the
expected
decline
in
inflation
pressures.

The
TL;DR
version
of
all
this
is
‘if
inflation
goes
down,
rates
go
down’.

***

The
interest
rate
and
FX
market
agreed.
NZD/USD
dropped
away
after
the
statement
and
rates
markets
moved
to
price
in
nearer-term
rate
cuts.
The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
next
meet
in
August
(14th),
markets
are
close
to
pricing
in
a
40%
chance
of
a
25bp
rate
cut
at
that
meeting.
There
is
CPI
data
due
from
New
Zealand
next
week
–
this
will
be
a
critical
data
point
for
the
RBNZ
in
timing
a
rate
cut.

From
China
we
had
June
inflation
data.
Headline
CPI
came
in
at
0.2%
y/y
vs.
the
0.4%
expected
and
0.3%
in
May.
While
it
appears
China
is
in
danger
of
flirting
with
a
deflationary
CPI
again
the
core
rate
offered
some
sign
that’s
not
the
case.
Core
came
in
at
0.6%
y/y,
unchanged
from
May.
The
PPI,
of
course,
remained
in
deflation.
The
disappointment
on
the
CPI
has
reignited
calls
for
People’s
Bank
of
China
easing.
The
yuan
weakened
on
the
session.
USD/CNY
hit
its
highest
(weakest
for
CNY)
since
November
14
last
year.

Japanese
wholesale
inflation
data
showed
an
acceleration
in
June.
The
PPI
(aka
the
corporate
goods
price
index
(CGPI))
rose
2.9%
y/y.
The
yen-based
import
price
index
increased
9.5%
y/y
in
June,
from
7.1%
in
May,
a
sign
of
how
much
impact
the
weak
JPY
is
inflating
the
price
firms
charge
each
other
for
imported
raw
material.

NZD/USD
fell
on
the
day,
as
did
the
yuan
and
yen.

Full Article

Wednesday 10th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review

401473 July 10, 2024 11:40 ICMarkets Market News

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 105.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 104.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 105.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.0794
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st support: 1.0723
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 1.0862
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 171.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st support: 169.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st resistance: 176.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8457
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 0.8404
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 0.8499
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 1.2754
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 1.2702
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 1.2853
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 206.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 201.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 216.63
Supporting reasons: Identified as a level influenced by the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8996
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 0.8945
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 0.9045
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 161.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 160.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 162.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3645
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.

1st support: 1.3602
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a potential area that could halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 1.3680
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify to halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 0.6712
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to resume the uptrend. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bullish momentum.

1st support: 0.6683
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.

1st resistance: 0.6753
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price has made a bearish break below the pivot and could potentially drop lower towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6107
Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where strong bearish momentum has caused price to break below this level.

1st support: 0.6074
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area that could halt the downward momentum.

1st resistance: 0.6148
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 39,155.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st Support: 38,980.78

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st Resistance: 39,622.34

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Price has made a bullish bounce off the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 18,208.80
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st Support: 18,062.94

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st Resistance: 18,424.70

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish break through this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,586.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the strong bullish momentum could potentially drive price higher.

1st support: 5,528.98

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 5,651.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection level, suggesting a critical area where selling pressures may intensify and potentially halt further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 58,236.52

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.

1st support: 54,368.67

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 60,122.74

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 3,082.70

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.

1st Support: 2,878.94

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st Resistance: 3,258.56

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish break below the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 81.91

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the bearish momentum could drive price lower.

1st Support: 80.20

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st Resistance: 83.21

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 2351.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 2336.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 2392.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

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The post Wednesday 10th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

AUD/NZD jumps above 1.1050 as RBNZ leaves its cash rate on hold at 5.5%

401472 July 10, 2024 11:39 FXStreet Market News

AUD/NZD
gains
momentum
around
1.1075
in
Wednesday’s
Asian
session,
up
0.63%
on
the
day.
The
RBNZ
maintained
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
unchanged
at
5.50%
at
its
July
meeting
on
Wednesday,
as
widely
expected.
The
RBA’s
hawkish
stance
lifts
the
Aussie
against
the
Kiwi.

The
AUD/NZD
cross
attracts
some
buyers
near
1.1075
during
the
Asian
trading
hours
on
Wednesday.
The
cross
gains
momentum
after
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
kept
its
cash
rate
unchanged
in
its
July
monetary
policy
meeting.

The
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
edges
lower
as
the

RBNZ
decided
to
keep
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
steady
at
5.50%,
as
widely
expected
by
the
markets.
This
marked
the
eighth
consecutive
meeting
with
no
change
in
rates.
According
to
the
Minutes
of
the

RBNZ
interest
rate
meeting,
the
board
notes
a
risk
that
domestically
driven
inflation
could
be
more
persistent
in
the
near
term.
The
central
bank
expected
headline
inflation
to
return
to
within
the
1
to
3
%
target
range
in
the
second
half
of
this
year.
Meanwhile,
New
Zealand
swaps
imply
25
basis
points
(bps)
of
RBNZ
rate
cuts
for
October
versus
16
bps
before
the
RBNZ
statement.

Elsewhere,
the
weaker
Chinese

economic
data
exerts
some
selling
pressure
on
the
China-proxy
Kiwi.
China’s
Consumer
Price
Index (CPI)
increased
0.2%
YoY
in
June,
compared
to
a
rise
of
0.3%
in
May,
below
the
consensus
of
0.4%.
On
a
monthly
basis,
the
CPI
inflation
arrived
at
-0.2%
MoM
in
June
versus
the
previous
reading
of
a
0.1%
decline,
worse
than
the
-0.1%
expected.

On
the
Aussie
front,
the
hawkish
stance
of
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
provides
some
support
to
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD).
The
recent
hotter
inflation
data
spurred
the
expectation
that
the
RBA
would
raise
a
25
bps
rate
in
the
September
24
meeting.

RBNZ
FAQs

The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
is
the
country’s
central
bank.
Its
economic
objectives
are
achieving
and
maintaining
price
stability
–
achieved
when
inflation,
measured
by
the
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI),
falls
within
the
band
of
between
1%
and
3%
–
and
supporting
maximum
sustainable
employment.

The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand’s
(RBNZ)
Monetary
Policy
Committee
(MPC)
decides
the
appropriate
level
of
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
according
to
its
objectives.
When
inflation
is
above
target,
the
bank
will
attempt
to
tame
it
by
raising
its
key
OCR,
making
it
more
expensive
for
households
and
businesses
to
borrow
money
and
thus
cooling
the
economy.
Higher
interest
rates
are
generally
positive
for
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
as
they
lead
to
higher
yields,
making
the
country
a
more
attractive
place
for
investors.
On
the
contrary,
lower
interest
rates
tend
to
weaken
NZD.

Employment
is
important
for
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
because
a
tight
labor
market
can
fuel
inflation.
The
RBNZ’s
goal
of
“maximum
sustainable
employment”
is
defined
as
the
highest
use
of
labor
resources
that
can
be
sustained
over
time
without
creating
an
acceleration
in
inflation.
“When
employment
is
at
its
maximum
sustainable
level,
there
will
be
low
and
stable
inflation.
However,
if
employment
is
above
the
maximum
sustainable
level
for
too
long,
it
will
eventually
cause
prices
to
rise
more
and
more
quickly,
requiring
the
MPC
to
raise
interest
rates
to
keep
inflation
under
control,”
the
bank
says.

In
extreme
situations,
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
can
enact
a
monetary
policy
tool
called
Quantitative
Easing.
QE
is
the
process
by
which
the
RBNZ
prints
local
currency
and
uses
it
to
buy
assets
–
usually
government
or
corporate
bonds
–
from
banks
and
other
financial
institutions
with
the
aim
to
increase
the
domestic
money
supply
and
spur
economic
activity.
QE
usually
results
in
a
weaker
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD).
QE
is
a
last
resort
when
simply
lowering
interest
rates
is
unlikely
to
achieve
the
objectives
of
the
central
bank.
The
RBNZ
used
it
during
the
Covid-19
pandemic.

Full Article

China’s CPI inflation softens to 0.2% YoY in June vs. 0.4% expected

401471 July 10, 2024 11:39 FXStreet Market News

China’s Consumer
Price
Index (CPI)
rose
at
an
annual
pace
of 0.2%
in
June,
compared
to
a
0.3%
increase
in
May.
The
market
forecast
was
for
a
0.4%
growth
in
the
reported
period.

Chinese
CPI
inflation
came
in
at
-0.2%
MoM
in
June
versus
May’s
0.1%
decline,
worse
than
the
-0.1%
expected.

China’s
Producer Price
Index (PPI)
fell
0.8%
YoY
in
June,
as
against
the
previous
drop
of
1.4%.
The
data
matched
the
market
expectations
of
-0.8%.

Market
reaction
to
China’s
inflation
data

AUD/USD is
little
affected
by
the
mixed
Chinese
inflation
data,
losing
0.04%
on
the
day
to
trade
near
0.6635,
as
of
writing.

Australian
Dollar
FAQs

One
of
the
most
significant
factors
for
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
is
the
level
of
interest
rates
set
by
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA).
Because
Australia
is
a
resource-rich
country
another
key
driver
is
the
price
of
its
biggest
export,
Iron
Ore.
The
health
of
the
Chinese
economy,
its
largest
trading
partner,
is
a
factor,
as
well
as
inflation
in
Australia,
its
growth
rate
and
Trade
Balance.
Market
sentiment
–
whether
investors
are
taking
on
more
risky
assets
(risk-on)
or
seeking
safe-havens
(risk-off)
–
is
also
a
factor,
with
risk-on
positive
for
AUD.

The
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
influences
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
by
setting
the
level
of
interest
rates
that
Australian
banks
can
lend
to
each
other.
This
influences
the
level
of
interest
rates
in
the
economy
as
a
whole.
The
main
goal
of
the
RBA
is
to
maintain
a
stable
inflation
rate
of
2-3%
by
adjusting
interest
rates
up
or
down.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
compared
to
other
major
central
banks
support
the
AUD,
and
the
opposite
for
relatively
low.
The
RBA
can
also
use
quantitative
easing
and
tightening
to
influence
credit
conditions,
with
the
former
AUD-negative
and
the
latter
AUD-positive.

China
is
Australia’s
largest
trading
partner
so
the
health
of
the
Chinese
economy
is
a
major
influence
on
the
value
of
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD).
When
the
Chinese
economy
is
doing
well
it
purchases
more
raw
materials,
goods
and
services
from
Australia,
lifting
demand
for
the
AUD,
and
pushing
up
its
value.
The
opposite
is
the
case
when
the
Chinese
economy
is
not
growing
as
fast
as
expected.
Positive
or
negative
surprises
in
Chinese
growth
data,
therefore,
often
have
a
direct
impact
on
the
Australian
Dollar
and
its
pairs.

Iron
Ore
is
Australia’s
largest
export,
accounting
for
$118
billion
a
year
according
to
data
from
2021,
with
China
as
its
primary
destination.
The
price
of
Iron
Ore,
therefore,
can
be
a
driver
of
the
Australian
Dollar.
Generally,
if
the
price
of
Iron
Ore
rises,
AUD
also
goes
up,
as
aggregate
demand
for
the
currency
increases.
The
opposite
is
the
case
if
the
price
of
Iron
Ore
falls.
Higher
Iron
Ore
prices
also
tend
to
result
in
a
greater
likelihood
of
a
positive
Trade
Balance
for
Australia,
which
is
also
positive
of
the
AUD.

The
Trade
Balance,
which
is
the
difference
between
what
a
country
earns
from
its
exports
versus
what
it
pays
for
its
imports,
is
another
factor
that
can
influence
the
value
of
the
Australian
Dollar.
If
Australia
produces
highly
sought
after
exports,
then
its
currency
will
gain
in
value
purely
from
the
surplus
demand
created
from
foreign
buyers
seeking
to
purchase
its
exports
versus
what
it
spends
to
purchase
imports.
Therefore,
a
positive
net
Trade
Balance
strengthens
the
AUD,
with
the
opposite
effect
if
the
Trade
Balance
is
negative.

Full Article

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024

401470 July 10, 2024 11:14 ICMarkets Market News

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee where he appeared to be laying the foundations for a potential interest rate cut in the coming months as the recent labour market data suggests a slowdown in jobs growth. “Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” Powell said on Tuesday, noting that the “labour market has cooled really significantly across so many measures“.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee focused on the relationship that the U.S. shares with international financial institutions such as multilateral development banks and organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

The dollar index (DXY) edged higher overnight as it climbed above the 105-level while gold prices reversed from $2,350/oz to climb towards $2,370/oz.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

The RBNZ is anticipated to maintain its official cash rate at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive board meeting. Despite subdued GDP output over the last six quarters, inflation remains elevated with headline and core CPI coming in at 4.0% and 3.7% YoY respectively in Q1-24 – well above the RBNZ’s target of 1 to 3%. However, any dovish rhetoric by Governor Adrian Orr could spark a sell-off in the Kiwi.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s statements and remarks are bound to have a major impact on the direction of the dollar later today and traders should be prepared for higher volatility during this period.

Central Bank Notes:

The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Fed Chair Powell Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s statements and remarks are bound to have a major impact on gold prices later today and traders should be prepared for higher volatility during this period.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie ranged within a narrow band between 0.6730 and 0.6745 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 0.6735 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6715

Resistance: 0.6780

Central Bank Notes:

The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

RBNZ Rate Statement (2:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from NZD today?

Central Bank Notes:

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row and agreed that interest rates need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period to ensure annual headline CPI inflation returns to the 1 to 3% target range.
Restrictive monetary policy is contributing to an easing in capacity pressures while headline inflation, core inflation, and most measures of inflation expectations are continuing to decline. However, domestic inflation has fallen more slowly than expected and headline CPI inflation remains above the Committee’s target band.
Higher dwelling rents, insurance costs, council rates, and other domestic services price inflation have resulted in a slow decline in domestic inflation, posing a risk to inflation expectations.
GDP declined by 0.1% in the December 2023 quarter with economic growth having now been negative for four of the past five quarters. High interest rates have reduced household spending, as well as residential and business investment, despite very strong population growth. Recent indicators of economic activity have been weak, as expected.
Next meeting is on 10 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen remains significantly weak as USD/JPY hit an overnight high of 161.51. The bullish momentum remains in place as this currency pair was rising towards 161.70 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 160.50

Resistance: 162.00

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
2. The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from EUR today?

The Euro hovered above 1.0800 through the U.S. session with no clear direction. This currency pair was trading around 1.0810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.0795

Resistance: 1.0850

Central Bank Notes:

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Despite demand for the dollar waning, the franc is experiencing an even stronger lack of bids causing USD/CHF to hover above 0.8970. This currency pair was trading around 0.8980 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8950

Resistance: 0.9015

Central Bank Notes:

The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Demand for the Pound fizzled slightly as Cable pulled back towards 1.2780 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.2790 as Asian markets came online and could remain elevated today – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2740

Resistance: 1.2860

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

With no clear direction, USD/CAD ranged within a narrow band between 1.3630 and 1.3650 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.3630 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3590

Resistance: 1.3670

Central Bank Notes:

The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Despite API stockpiles experiencing a higher-than-expected drawdown, crude prices fell overnight with WTI oil tumbling nearly 0.8%. The API registered a decline of 1.9M barrels of crude versus the estimate of a 0.3M-drop but that did not prevent WTI oil from tumbling under $82 per barrel. The EIA inventories are forecasting for a minor draw of 0.3M barrels and should markets see a much higher decline, it could potentially function as a bullish catalyst for oil prices to eventually find a floor later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Full Article

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looks to $2,400 again as $2,350 support holds

401468 July 10, 2024 11:14 FXStreet Market News

Gold
price
extends
the
previous
rebound
early
Wednesday,
awaits
Powell’s
second
testimony.
The
US
Dollar
holds
recovery
gains
with
Treasury
bond
yields
even
as
Fed
rate
cut
bets
remain
intact.
Gold
price
looks
north
toward
$2,400
amid
bullish
daily
RSI,
as
$2,350
holds
the
fort.

Gold
price
is
looking
to
build
on
the
previous
rebound
above
$2,350
in
Wednesday’s
Asian
session,
as
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
consolidates
its
recovery
gains
alongside
the
US
Treasury
bond
yields.

Gold
awaits
more
Powell
and
Fedspeak

Gold
traders
weigh
US

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chairman
Jerome
Powell’s
testimony
delivered
before
the
Senate
Banking
Committee
on
Tuesday,
awaiting
his
second
round
in
front
of
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee
later
on
Wednesday.

Besides,
Powell’s
testimony,
the
focus
will
also
remain
on
a
bunch
of
speeches
from
several
Fed
policymakers,
which
could
help
markets
seal
in
a
September
interest
rate
cut.

Even
though
Powell
sounded
prudent
on
the
policy
outlook,
during
his
testimony
on
Tuesday,
saying
that
inflation
had
been
improving
in
recent
months
and
that
“more
good
data
would
strengthen”
the
case
for
the
rate
cut.
However,
he
told
lawmakers
that
he
did
not
want
“to
be
sending
any
signals
about
the
timing
of
any
future
actions”
on
rates.

Markets
continued
pricing
in
over
a
70%
probability
that
the
Fed
will
lower
rates
in
September,
according
to
the
CME
Group’s
FedWatch
Tool.
Another
rate
cut
in
December
is
also
on
the
table.

Gold
price
stalled
its
rebound
near
$2,370
on
Tuesday,
following
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell’s
testimony,
as
the
US
Treasury
bond
yields
jumped
and
propelled
US
Dollar
back
on
the
bids.

Market
participants
also
took
Powell’s
speech
as
an
excuse
to
book
profits
on
their
US
Dollar
shorts
heading
into
Thursday’s
critical
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
release.

Gold
price
technical
analysis:
Daily
chart

The
short-term
technical

outlook
for
Gold
price
remains
constructive,
as
the
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
holds
firm
above
the
50
level.

Gold
buyers
need
to
find
acceptance
above
the
six-week
high
of
$2,393
to
resume
the
uptrend
toward
the
all-time
high
of
$2,450.
Ahead
of
that,
the
$2,400
level
could
act
as
a
tough
nut
to
crack
for
them.

Alternatively,
Gold
price
could
face
immediate
support
at
the
$2,350
psychological
barrier,
below
which
the
$2,340
demand
area
will
be
challenged.

Around
that
level,
the
50-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
and
the
21-day
SMA
close
in.
A
sustained
move
below
the
latter
could
trigger
a
fresh
downtrend
toward
the
$2,300
round
level.

Economic
Indicator

Fed’s
Chair
Powell
testifies

Federal
Reserve
Chair
Jerome
Powell
testifies
before
Congress,
providing
a
broad
overview
of
the
economy
and
monetary
policy.
Powell’s
prepared
remarks
are
published
ahead
of
the
appearance
on
Capitol
Hill.

Economic
Indicator

RBNZ
Interest
Rate
Decision

The

Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
announces
its
interest
rate
decision
after
its
seven
scheduled
annual
policy
meetings.
If
the
RBNZ
is
hawkish
and
sees
inflationary
pressures
rising,
it
raises
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
to
bring
inflation
down.
This
is
positive
for
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
since
higher
interest
rates
attract
more
capital
inflows.
Likewise,
if
it
reaches
the
view
that
inflation
is
too
low
it
lowers
the
OCR,
which
tends
to
weaken
NZD.

Articles

Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen declines due to the hawkish stance of Fed’s Powell

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY rises to near 161.50

USD/JPY: Daily Chart

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

Bank of Japan FAQs

Bitcoin price looks promising as technical indicators show bullish divergence

Ethereum price eyes rally following support retest

Ripple price shows potential recovery rally

DXY (US Dollar Index):

EUR/USD:

EUR/JPY:

EUR/GBP:

GBP/USD:

GBP/JPY:

USD/CHF:

USD/JPY:

USD/CAD:

AUD/USD:

NZD/USD

US30 (DJIA):

DE40 (DAX):

US500 (S&P 500):

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

WTI/USD (Oil):

XAU/USD (GOLD):

RBNZ FAQs

Market reaction to China’s inflation data

Australian Dollar FAQs

Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Economic Indicator

Fed’s Chair Powell testifies

Economic Indicator

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

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Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Japanese
Yen
declines
due
to
the
hawkish
stance
of
Fed’s
Powell

Technical
Analysis:
USD/JPY
rises
to
near
161.50

USD/JPY:
Daily
Chart

Japanese
Yen
PRICE
Today

Bank
of
Japan
FAQs

Bitcoin
price
looks
promising
as
technical
indicators
show
bullish
divergence

Ethereum
price
eyes
rally
following
support
retest

Ripple
price
shows
potential
recovery
rally

RBNZ
FAQs

Market
reaction
to
China’s
inflation
data

Australian
Dollar
FAQs

Gold
awaits
more
Powell
and
Fedspeak

Gold
price
technical
analysis:
Daily
chart

Economic
Indicator

Fed’s
Chair
Powell
testifies

Economic
Indicator

RBNZ
Interest
Rate
Decision