Articles
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024
401502 July 10, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
As widely expected, the RBNZ kept its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive board meeting. Policymakers observed that the restrictive monetary policy has eased capacity pressures and reduced consumer price inflation but the headline CPI reading of 4.0% in the first quarter of 2024 still exceeds the RBNZ’s target of 1 to 3%. However, inflation is predicted to return to the target range in the second half of this year. The Kiwi dived sharply from 0.6130 to as low as 0.6075 following this announcement.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s statements and remarks are bound to have a major impact on the direction of the dollar later today and traders should be prepared for higher volatility during this period.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Fed Chair Powell Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s statements and remarks are bound to have a major impact on the direction of the dollar later today and traders should be prepared for higher volatility during this period.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Fed Chair Powell Testifies (2:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will conclude the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s statements and remarks are bound to have a major impact on gold prices later today and traders should be prepared for higher volatility during this period.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie ranged within a narrow band between 0.6730 and 0.6745 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 0.6735 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6715
Resistance: 0.6780
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
- Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
- The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
- Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
RBNZ Rate Statement (2:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from NZD today?
As widely expected, the RBNZ kept its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive board meeting. Policymakers observed that the restrictive monetary policy has eased capacity pressures and reduced consumer price inflation but the headline CPI reading of 4.0% in the first quarter of 2024 still exceeds the RBNZ’s target of 1 to 3%. However, inflation is predicted to return to the target range in the second half of this year. The Kiwi dived sharply from 0.6130 to as low as 0.6075 following this announcement.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
- The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
- The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline .
- Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
- Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen remains significantly weak as USD/JPY hit an overnight high of 161.51. The bullish momentum remains in place as this currency pair was rising towards 161.70 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 160.50
Resistance: 162.00
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
- The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
- Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro hovered above 1.0800 through the U.S. session with no clear direction. This currency pair was trading around 1.0810 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0795
Resistance: 1.0850
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
- Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
- At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
- Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
- The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Despite demand for the dollar waning, the franc is experiencing an even stronger lack of bids causing USD/CHF to hover above 0.8970. This currency pair was trading around 0.8980 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8950
Resistance: 0.9015
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Demand for the Pound fizzled slightly as Cable pulled back towards 1.2780 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.2790 as Asian markets came online and could remain elevated today – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2740
Resistance: 1.2860
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
- Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
- Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
- UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
- UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
- The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
- Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
With no clear direction, USD/CAD ranged within a narrow band between 1.3630 and 1.3650 overnight. This currency pair was trading around 1.3630 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3590
Resistance: 1.3670
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
- CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
- In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
- The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Despite API stockpiles experiencing a higher-than-expected drawdown, crude prices fell overnight with WTI oil tumbling nearly 0.8%. The API registered a decline of 1.9M barrels of crude versus the estimate of a 0.3M-drop but that did not prevent WTI oil from tumbling under $82 per barrel. The EIA inventories are forecasting for a minor draw of 0.3M barrels and should markets see a much higher decline, it could potentially function as a bullish catalyst for oil prices to eventually find a floor later today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 10 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
Gold price holds positive ground ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s second testimony
401501 July 10, 2024 14:39 FXStreet Market News
-
The
Gold
price
gains
traction
in
Wednesday’s
early
European
session. -
Rising
Fed
rate
cut
bets
continue
to
lift
the
yellow
metal. -
The
PBoC
refrained
from
buying
gold
for
a
consecutive
month,
limits
XAU/USD
upside.
The
Gold
price
(XAU/USD)
trades
with
mild
gains
on
Wednesday
during
the
early
European
session.
The
growing
speculation
that
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
is
likely
to
start
cutting
rates
as
early
as
September
continues
to
support
the
non-yielding
metal.
Furthermore,
political
uncertainties
within
Europe
and
globally
might
boost
Gold
price,
a
traditional
safe-haven
asset.
On
the
other
hand,
the
pause
of
China’s
central
bank
Gold
purchases
for
a
second
consecutive
month
might
prompt
traders
to
reduce
bullish
bets
in
the
yellow
metal
as
China
is
the
world’s
largest
gold
consumer.
Investors
will
keep
an
eye
on
the
second
semi-annual
testimony
by
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell
on
Wednesday,
along
with
speeches
by
the
Fed’s
Michelle
Bowman
and
Austan
Goolsbee.
On
Thursday,
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
data
will
be
closely
monitored.
This
data
might
offer
more
clarity
on
the
US
interest
rate
path.
Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Gold
price
gains
traction
amid
rising
Fed
rate
cut
bets
-
China
held
its
gold
reserves
steady
for
the
second
month
in
a
row
in
June,
after
an
18-month
period
of
purchases.
Official
data
from
China’s
central
bank
shows
its
gold
reserves
holdings
at
2,264
tonnes. -
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell
said
in
testimony
Tuesday
to
Congress
that
the
most
recent
inflation
data
showed
some
modest
further
progress
and
“more
good
data”
could
open
the
door
to
interest
rate
cuts. -
Powell
emphasized
that
the
central
bank
will
continue
to
make
decisions
on
monetary
policy
meeting
by
meeting,
adding
that
holding
interest
rates
too
high
for
too
long
could
jeopardize
economic
growth. -
Powell
further
stated
that
inflation
readings
over
the
first
three
months
of
this
year
did
not
boost
Fed
officials’
confidence
that
inflation
was
coming
under
control. -
Financial
markets
are
now
pricing
in
74%
odds
of
a
Fed
rate
cut
in
September,
up
from
71%
last
Friday,
according
to
data
from
the
CME
FedWatch
tool.
Technical
Analysis:
Gold
price
holds
bullish
in
the
longer
term
The
gold
price
trades
on
a
stronger
note
on
the
day
following
the
break
above
the
descending
channel.
The
precious
metal
maintains
its
uptrend
above
the
key
100-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
on
the
daily
timeframe.
The
upward
momentum
is
also
supported
by
the
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI),
which
stands
in
the
bullish
zone
around
55.0.
The
crucial
resistance
level
for
yellow
metal
will
emerge
at
the
$2,400
psychological
level.
The
next
hurdle
is
seen
at
$2,432,
a
high
of
April
12.
Sustained
trading
above
this
level
could
set
XAU/USD
for
a
potential
retest
of
the
all-time
high
of
$2,450.
On
the
other
hand,
sustained
trading
below
$2,340,
the
former
resistance
level,
could
draw
in
enough
bearish
demand
to
head
$2,318,
a
low
of
July
1.
The
next
contention
level
to
watch
is
$2,274,
the
100-day
EMA.
US
Dollar
price
in
the
last
7
days
The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
US
Dollar
(USD)
against
listed
major
currencies
in
the
last
7
days.
US
Dollar
was
the
strongest
against
the
Japanese
Yen.
|
USD |
EUR |
GBP |
CAD |
AUD |
JPY |
NZD |
CHF |
|
|
USD |
-0.66% | -0.81% | -0.34% | -1.17% | -0.01% | -0.20% | -0.72% | |
|
EUR |
0.66% | -0.16% | 0.32% | -0.50% | 0.65% | 0.45% | -0.06% | |
|
GBP |
0.80% | 0.15% | 0.48% | -0.34% | 0.80% | 0.61% | 0.09% | |
|
CAD |
0.33% | -0.33% | -0.48% | -0.83% | 0.33% | 0.13% | -0.38% | |
|
AUD |
1.15% | 0.50% | 0.36% | 0.82% | 1.14% | 0.94% | 0.42% | |
|
JPY |
0.01% | -0.64% | -0.81% | -0.32% | -1.16% | -0.19% | -0.71% | |
|
NZD |
0.20% | -0.45% | -0.61% | -0.12% | -0.95% | 0.20% | -0.52% | |
|
CHF |
0.71% | 0.03% | -0.09% | 0.39% | -0.45% | 0.68% | 0.51% |
The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
Euro
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
Japanese
Yen,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
EUR
(base)/JPY
(quote).
Inflation
FAQs
Inflation
measures
the
rise
in
the
price
of
a
representative
basket
of
goods
and
services.
Headline
inflation
is
usually
expressed
as
a
percentage
change
on
a
month-on-month
(MoM)
and
year-on-year
(YoY)
basis.
Core
inflation
excludes
more
volatile
elements
such
as
food
and
fuel
which
can
fluctuate
because
of
geopolitical
and
seasonal
factors.
Core
inflation
is
the
figure
economists
focus
on
and
is
the
level
targeted
by
central
banks,
which
are
mandated
to
keep
inflation
at
a
manageable
level,
usually
around
2%.
The
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
measures
the
change
in
prices
of
a
basket
of
goods
and
services
over
a
period
of
time.
It
is
usually
expressed
as
a
percentage
change
on
a
month-on-month
(MoM)
and
year-on-year
(YoY)
basis.
Core
CPI
is
the
figure
targeted
by
central
banks
as
it
excludes
volatile
food
and
fuel
inputs.
When
Core
CPI
rises
above
2%
it
usually
results
in
higher
interest
rates
and
vice
versa
when
it
falls
below
2%.
Since
higher
interest
rates
are
positive
for
a
currency,
higher
inflation
usually
results
in
a
stronger
currency.
The
opposite
is
true
when
inflation
falls.
Although
it
may
seem
counter-intuitive,
high
inflation
in
a
country
pushes
up
the
value
of
its
currency
and
vice
versa
for
lower
inflation.
This
is
because
the
central
bank
will
normally
raise
interest
rates
to
combat
the
higher
inflation,
which
attract
more
global
capital
inflows
from
investors
looking
for
a
lucrative
place
to
park
their
money.
Formerly,
Gold
was
the
asset
investors
turned
to
in
times
of
high
inflation
because
it
preserved
its
value,
and
whilst
investors
will
often
still
buy
Gold
for
its
safe-haven
properties
in
times
of
extreme
market
turmoil,
this
is
not
the
case
most
of
the
time.
This
is
because
when
inflation
is
high,
central
banks
will
put
up
interest
rates
to
combat
it.
Higher
interest
rates
are
negative
for
Gold
because
they
increase
the
opportunity-cost
of
holding
Gold
vis-a-vis
an
interest-bearing
asset
or
placing
the
money
in
a
cash
deposit
account.
On
the
flipside,
lower
inflation
tends
to
be
positive
for
Gold
as
it
brings
interest
rates
down,
making
the
bright
metal
a
more
viable
investment
alternative.
Pound Sterling clings to gains as Fed Chair Powell cautions on labor market
401497 July 10, 2024 14:14 FXStreet Market News
-
The
Pound
Sterling
exhibits
strength
against
the
US
Dollar
as
Fed’s
Powell
sees
softness
in
the
US
labor
market
strength. -
The
Fed
chief
did
not
guide
any
specific
rate-cut
path. -
UK
GDP
for
May
and
US
Inflation
for
June
have
come
under
the
spotlight.
The
Pound
Sterling
(GBP)
edges
higher
against
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
in
Wednesday’s
early
London
session
after
a
mild
correction
from
almost
a
four-week
high
of
1.2850
this
week.
The
broader
appeal
of
the
GBP/USD
pair
remains
firm
amid
strong
speculation
that
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
start
reducing
interest
rates
during
the
September
meeting.
The
odds
for
the
Fed
pivoting
to
policy
normalization
remain
firm
even
though
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
reiterated
in
his
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony
on
Tuesday,
refrained
from
providing
any
specific
rate-cut
path
for
this
year.
Powell
argued
in
favor
of
maintaining
interest
rates
at
their
current
levels
for
long
until
they
get
evidence
that
inflation
will
return
to
the
desired
rate
of
2%.
What
was
unexpected
from
Fed
Powell’s
commentary
before
Congress
is
his
acknowledgement
that
the
United
States
(US)
economy
is
no
longer
overheated,
with
cooling
job
market
conditions.
Powell
said
that
the
labor
market
has
moderated
to
where
it
was
before
pandemic-era.
Now
that
risks
have
become
two-sided,
a
rate-cut
move
by
the
Fed
in
September
appears
to
be
a
done
deal.
For
more
clarity,
investors
will
focus
on
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
report
for
June,
which
will
be
published
on
Thursday.
The
report
is
expected
to
show
that
the
core
inflation,
which
strips
off
volatile
food
and
energy
items,
grew
steadily
by
0.2%
and
3.4%
on
a
monthly
and
annual
basis,
respectively.
Annual
headline
inflation
is
estimated
to
have
decelerated
to
3.1%
from
May’s
reading
of
3.3%,
while
the
monthly
figure
is
expected
to
have
barely
grown
after
remaining
unchanged.
A
scenario
in
which
price
pressures
remain
sticky
or
hot
would
ease
expectations
for
rate
cuts
in
September.
On
the
contrary,
soft
numbers
will
boost
them.
Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Pound
Sterling
remains
firm
with
UK
GDP
in
focus
-
The
Pound
Sterling
performs
strongly
against
its
major
peers
due
to
multiple
tailwinds.
The
British
currency
strengthens
as
the
outright
victory
of
the
United
Kingdom
(UK)
Keir
Starmer-led
Labour
Party
in
parliamentary
elections
against
Rishi
Sunak-led
Conservative
Party
has
brought
political
stability
to
the
economy.
The
uncertainty
over
the
Bank
of
England
(BoE)
rate-cut
path
has
deepened
after
hawkish
guidance
from
BoE
policymaker
Jonathan
Haskel. -
On
Monday,
Jonathan
Haskel,
who
has
been
amongst
major
hawks,
said
no
to
a
rate
cut
in
August
as
inflation
in
the
labor
market
is
still
higher
due
to
strong
wage
growth.
Haskel
said,
“I
would
rather
hold
rates
until
there
is
more
certainty
that
underlying
inflationary
pressures
have
subsided
sustainably,”
Reuters
reported. -
On
the
contrary,
financial
markets
currently
expect
that
the
BoE
will
begin
cutting
its
key
rates
from
the
August
meeting.
The
expectations
for
BoE
rate
cuts
in
August
have
been
prompted
by
the
return
of
the
annual
headline
inflation
to
bank’s
target
of
2%. -
Meanwhile,
investors
shift
focus
to
the
monthly
Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
and
factory
data
for
May,
which
will
be
published
on
Thursday.
Economists
expect
that
the
economy
expanded
by
0.2%
after
remaining
unchanged
in
April.
Industrial
and
Manufacturing
Production
are
expected
to
have
grown
on
a
monthly
and
annual
basis
after
declining
in
April.
Technical
Analysis:
Pound
Sterling
aims
to
hold
1.2800
The
Pound
Sterling
aims
to
hold
the
key
figure
of
1.2800
against
the
US
Dollar.
The
GBP/USD
pair
gathers
strength
for
a
decisive
breakout
of
the
Inverted
Head
and
Shoulder
(H&S)
chart
formation
on
a
daily
timeframe
whose
neckline
is
plotted
near
1.2850.
A
breakout
of
the
H&S
formation
results
in
a
bullish
reversal.
Advancing
20-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
near
1.2730,
suggests
that
the
near-term
trend
is
bullish.
The
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
climbs
into
the
bullish
range
of
60.00-80.00.
A
sustained
move
above
the
same
will
keep
the
momentum
towards
the
upside.
Pound
Sterling
FAQs
The
Pound
Sterling
(GBP)
is
the
oldest
currency
in
the
world
(886
AD)
and
the
official
currency
of
the
United
Kingdom.
It
is
the
fourth
most
traded
unit
for
foreign
exchange
(FX)
in
the
world,
accounting
for
12%
of
all
transactions,
averaging
$630
billion
a
day,
according
to
2022
data.
Its
key
trading
pairs
are
GBP/USD,
aka
‘Cable’,
which
accounts
for
11%
of
FX,
GBP/JPY,
or
the
‘Dragon’
as
it
is
known
by
traders
(3%),
and
EUR/GBP
(2%).
The
Pound
Sterling
is
issued
by
the
Bank
of
England
(BoE).
The
single
most
important
factor
influencing
the
value
of
the
Pound
Sterling
is
monetary
policy
decided
by
the
Bank
of
England.
The
BoE
bases
its
decisions
on
whether
it
has
achieved
its
primary
goal
of
“price
stability”
–
a
steady
inflation
rate
of
around
2%.
Its
primary
tool
for
achieving
this
is
the
adjustment
of
interest
rates.
When
inflation
is
too
high,
the
BoE
will
try
to
rein
it
in
by
raising
interest
rates,
making
it
more
expensive
for
people
and
businesses
to
access
credit.
This
is
generally
positive
for
GBP,
as
higher
interest
rates
make
the
UK
a
more
attractive
place
for
global
investors
to
park
their
money.
When
inflation
falls
too
low
it
is
a
sign
economic
growth
is
slowing.
In
this
scenario,
the
BoE
will
consider
lowering
interest
rates
to
cheapen
credit
so
businesses
will
borrow
more
to
invest
in
growth-generating
projects.
Data
releases
gauge
the
health
of
the
economy
and
can
impact
the
value
of
the
Pound
Sterling.
Indicators
such
as
GDP,
Manufacturing
and
Services
PMIs,
and
employment
can
all
influence
the
direction
of
the
GBP.
A
strong
economy
is
good
for
Sterling.
Not
only
does
it
attract
more
foreign
investment
but
it
may
encourage
the
BoE
to
put
up
interest
rates,
which
will
directly
strengthen
GBP.
Otherwise,
if
economic
data
is
weak,
the
Pound
Sterling
is
likely
to
fall.
Another
significant
data
release
for
the
Pound
Sterling
is
the
Trade
Balance.
This
indicator
measures
the
difference
between
what
a
country
earns
from
its
exports
and
what
it
spends
on
imports
over
a
given
period.
If
a
country
produces
highly
sought-after
exports,
its
currency
will
benefit
purely
from
the
extra
demand
created
from
foreign
buyers
seeking
to
purchase
these
goods.
Therefore,
a
positive
net
Trade
Balance
strengthens
a
currency
and
vice
versa
for
a
negative
balance.
BOME Price Forecast: Poised for a rally as technicals show bullish divergences
401495 July 10, 2024 14:14 FXStreet Market News
-
Book
of
Meme
price
finds
around
the
key
level
at
$0.0071,
with
an
impending
rally
eyed. -
The
RSI
and
AO
indicators
formed
bullish
divergences,
signaling
a
reversal. -
A
daily
candlestick
close
below
$0.0071
would
invalidate
the
bullish
thesis.
Book
of
Meme
(BOME)
price
has
stabilized
near
the
critical
level
of
$0.0071.
The
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Awesome
Oscillator
(AO)
indicators
have
shown
a
bullish
divergence,
indicating
a
likely
reversal
and
upward
movement
in
the
days
ahead.
Book
of
Meme
price
action
shows
a
bullish
indication
Book
of
Meme
price
found
support
around
$0.0071,
the
low
of
April
13
on
Monday.
It
bounced
3%
and
trades
at
$0.0078
on
Wednesday.
Additionally,
on
the
daily
chart,
the
formation
of
a
lower
low
on
July
5
contrasts
with
the
Relative
Strength
Index’s
(RSI)
higher
highs
during
the
same
period.
This
development
is
termed
a
bullish
divergence
and
often
leads
to
the
reversal
of
the
trend
or
a
short-term
rally.
If
this
support
level
at
$0.0071
holds,
BOME
could
rise
7%
to
retest
its
daily
resistance
level
at
$0.0083.
Moreover,
if
BOME
closes
above
$0.0083,
it
could
extend
an
additional
23%
rally
to
retest
its
daily
high
of
$0.0103
from
July
1.
BOME/USDT
daily
chart
However,
if
the
Book
of
Meme
price
produces
a
daily
candlestick
close
below
$0.0071,
it
would
produce
a
lower
daily
low,
potentially
signaling
a
shift
to
bearish
market
conditions.
This
change
in
market
structure
would
nullify
the
bullish
outlook,
triggering
an
11%
decline
in
BOME
price
as
it
revisits
its
recent
daily
low
of
$0.0063
observed
on
July
5.
Full Article
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1342 vs. 7.1310 previous
401492 July 10, 2024 13:39 FXStreet Market News
Information
on
these
pages
contains
forward-looking
statements
that
involve
risks
and
uncertainties.
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and
instruments
profiled
on
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page
are
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only
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in
any
way
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or
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assets.
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your
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research
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emotional
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the
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the
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be
investment
advice.
Crude Oil eases on Tuesday despite extended decline in API barrel counts
401489 July 10, 2024 13:39 FXStreet Market News
-
WTI
backslid
to
$81.00
as
energy
market
concerns
weigh
heavy. -
API
reported
a
second,
albeit
smaller
drawdown
in
US
Crude
Oil
supplies. -
Chinese
demand
remains
lower
than
expected
in
2024,
risk
bid
from
Beryl
evaporates.
West
Texas
Intermediate
(WTI)
US
Crude
Oil
extended
a
near
term
decline
on
Tuesday,
falling
to
$81.00
per
barrel
as
American
Crude
Oil
markets
continue
to
struggle
to
find
consistent
bullish
momentum.
The
American
Petroleum
Institute
(API)
reported
another
week-on-week
decline
in
US
Weekly
Crude
Oil
Stock
for
the
week
ended
July
5.
According
to
the
API,
US
weekly
barrel
counts
fell
by
another
1.9
million,
adding
to
the
previous
week’s
sharp
decline
of
9.163
million
and
undershooting
the
forecast
-250K
barrel
drawdown.
Crude
Oil
prices
remain
tepid
to
soft
on
Tuesday
as
US
Distillate
Stocks,
Crude
Oil
derivatives
primarily
used
for
diesel
and
home
heating
and
cooling
production
bounced
2.3
million
and
entirely
missing
the
forecast
decline
of
-740K
drawdown.
Chinese
demand
continues
to
undershoot
broad
market
expectations
for
overall
upticks
in
Asian
fossil
fuel
usage.
Crude
Oil
bullish
momentum
that
hinged
on
an
uptick
of
demand
earlier
in
the
year
has
thus
far
not
born
fruit.
Tropical
Storm
Beryl,
which
was
downgraded
from
a
category
1
hurricane,
also
failed
to
disrupt
US
Crude
Oil
markets
as
much
as
barrel
traders
had
initially
feared,
kicking
the
legs
out
from
underneath
a
near-term
bullish
push
and
keeping
WTI
bids
pinned
on
the
low
side.
Economic
Indicator
API
Weekly
Crude
Oil
Stock
API’s
Weekly
Statistical
Bulletin
(WSB)
has
reported
total
U.S.
and
regional
data
relating
to
refinery
operations
and
the
production
of
the
four
major
petroleum
products:
motor
gasoline,
kerosene
jet
fuel,
distillate
(by
sulfur
content),
and
residual
fuel
oil.
These
products
represent
more
than
85%
of
total
petroleum
industry.
Last
release:
Tue
Jul
09,
2024
20:30
Frequency:
Weekly
Actual:
-1.9M
Consensus:
-0.25M
Previous:
-9.163M
Source:
American
Petroleum
Institute
WTI
technical
outlook
WTI
remains
mired
in
near-term
technical
consolidation,
backsliding
below
previous
technical
support
from
$81.50
and
slipping
beneath
the
200-hour
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
at
$81.96.
Daily
candles
broke
north
of
a
consolidation
pattern
cooked
into
the
charts
from
mid-June,
but
price
action
has
fallen
back
into
technical
congestion
as
bears
look
set
to
drag
bids
down
to
the
200-day
EMA
at
$79.19.
WTI
hourly
chart
WTI
daily
chart
WTI
Oil
FAQs
WTI
Oil
is
a
type
of
Crude
Oil
sold
on
international
markets.
The
WTI
stands
for
West
Texas
Intermediate,
one
of
three
major
types
including
Brent
and
Dubai
Crude.
WTI
is
also
referred
to
as
“light”
and
“sweet”
because
of
its
relatively
low
gravity
and
sulfur
content
respectively.
It
is
considered
a
high
quality
Oil
that
is
easily
refined.
It
is
sourced
in
the
United
States
and
distributed
via
the
Cushing
hub,
which
is
considered
“The
Pipeline
Crossroads
of
the
World”.
It
is
a
benchmark
for
the
Oil
market
and
WTI
price
is
frequently
quoted
in
the
media.
Like
all
assets,
supply
and
demand
are
the
key
drivers
of
WTI
Oil
price.
As
such,
global
growth
can
be
a
driver
of
increased
demand
and
vice
versa
for
weak
global
growth.
Political
instability,
wars,
and
sanctions
can
disrupt
supply
and
impact
prices.
The
decisions
of
OPEC,
a
group
of
major
Oil-producing
countries,
is
another
key
driver
of
price.
The
value
of
the
US
Dollar
influences
the
price
of
WTI
Crude
Oil,
since
Oil
is
predominantly
traded
in
US
Dollars,
thus
a
weaker
US
Dollar
can
make
Oil
more
affordable
and
vice
versa.
The
weekly
Oil
inventory
reports
published
by
the
American
Petroleum
Institute
(API)
and
the
Energy
Information
Agency
(EIA)
impact
the
price
of
WTI
Oil.
Changes
in
inventories
reflect
fluctuating
supply
and
demand.
If
the
data
shows
a
drop
in
inventories
it
can
indicate
increased
demand,
pushing
up
Oil
price.
Higher
inventories
can
reflect
increased
supply,
pushing
down
prices.
API’s
report
is
published
every
Tuesday
and
EIA’s
the
day
after.
Their
results
are
usually
similar,
falling
within
1%
of
each
other
75%
of
the
time.
The
EIA
data
is
considered
more
reliable,
since
it
is
a
government
agency.
OPEC
(Organization
of
the
Petroleum
Exporting
Countries)
is
a
group
of
13
Oil-producing
nations
who
collectively
decide
production
quotas
for
member
countries
at
twice-yearly
meetings.
Their
decisions
often
impact
WTI
Oil
prices.
When
OPEC
decides
to
lower
quotas,
it
can
tighten
supply,
pushing
up
Oil
prices.
When
OPEC
increases
production,
it
has
the
opposite
effect.
OPEC+
refers
to
an
expanded
group
that
includes
ten
extra
non-OPEC
members,
the
most
notable
of
which
is
Russia.
Another bare calendar session beckons in Europe today
401488 July 10, 2024 13:16 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The
kiwi
is
the
main
mover
among
major
currencies
so
far
today,
following
a
more
dovish
RBNZ
earlier
here.
Besides
that,
we’re
seeing
narrow
ranges
all
around
with
light
changes
ahead
of
European
trading.
What
else
is
new,
eh?
Fed
chair
Powell
was
in
the
spotlight
in
trading
yesterday
but
he
didn’t
offer
up
much
of
anything.
His
speech
was
all
about
maintaining
the
status
quo,
with
markets
still
expecting
~49
bps
of
rate
cuts
by
year-end
currently.
As
such,
the
dollar
didn’t
have
much
to
work
with
as
well
from
that.
Wall
Street
ended
with
a
more
mixed
mood
but
stocks
remain
buoyed
in
general,
especially
tech
shares.
The
S&P
500
and
Nasdaq
both
continue
to
hold
at
record
highs,
with
the
former
up
over
2%
on
the
month
and
the
latter
nearly
4%.
Looking
to
the
session
ahead,
there’s
not
going
to
be
much
catalysts
for
market
moves.
As
such,
the
overall
risk
mood
will
remain
a
key
driver
but
there
might
be
some
tentative
tones
as
we
move
closer
to
the
main
event
tomorrow.
The
US
CPI
report
for
June
is
the
big
attraction
this
week.
And
that
will
provide
markets
with
something
to
work
with
towards
the
latter
half
of
the
week.
1100
GMT
–
US
MBA
mortgage
applications
w.e.
5
July
I
wish
you
all
the
best
of
days
to
come
and
good
luck
with
your
trading!
Stay
safe
out
there.
16
–
With
his
goal
yesterday,
Lamine
Yamal
is
now
the
youngest
goal
scorer
in
Euros
history
at
16
years
and
362
days.
Wonderkid.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: The first upside barrier emerges near 1.0850
401486 July 10, 2024 13:15 FXStreet Market News
-
EUR/USD
drifts
higher
to
1.0818
on
Wednesday. -
The
constructive
outlook
remains
intact
above
the
100-EMA,
with
a
bullish
RSI, -
The
first
upside
barrier
is
seen
at
1.0843,
initial
support
level
is
located
at
1.0800-1.0810
regions.
The EUR/USD
pair trades
on
a
stronger
note
around
1.0818
on
Wednesday
during
the
early
European
session.
The
modest
uptick of
the
pair
is
bolstered
by
the
weaker
Greenback
The
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
data
on
Thursday
will
be
the
highlights
for
this
week.
Technically,
the
positive
outlook
of
the
major
pair
remains
intact
as
it
holds
above
the
key
100-period
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
on
the
4-hour
chart.
The
path
of
least
resistance
is
to
the
upside,
as
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
stands
in
bullish
territory
near
57.0.
The
immediate
resistance
level
for
EUR/USD
will
emerge
at
1.0843,
the
upper
boundary
of
the
Bollinger
Band.
Any
follow-through
buying
above
this
level
will
see
a
rally
to
1.0885,
a
high
of
May
15. The
next
hurdle
is
seen
at
1.0915,
a
high
of
June
4.
On
the
flip
side,
the
potential
support
level
is
located
at
the
1.0800-1.0810
zone,
representing
the
lower
limit
of
the
Bollinger
Band
and
psychological
figure.
Further
south,
the
next
contention
level
to
watch
is
1.0790,
the
100-period
EMA.
A
breach
of
this
level
will
pave
the
way
to
1.0710,
a
low
of
July
2.
EUR/USD
4-hour
chart
Euro
FAQs
The
Euro
is
the
currency
for
the
20
European
Union
countries
that
belong
to
the
Eurozone.
It
is
the
second
most
heavily
traded
currency
in
the
world
behind
the
US
Dollar.
In
2022,
it
accounted
for
31%
of
all
foreign
exchange
transactions,
with
an
average
daily
turnover
of
over
$2.2
trillion
a
day.
EUR/USD
is
the
most
heavily
traded
currency
pair
in
the
world,
accounting
for
an
estimated
30%
off
all
transactions,
followed
by
EUR/JPY
(4%),
EUR/GBP
(3%)
and
EUR/AUD
(2%).
The
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
in
Frankfurt,
Germany,
is
the
reserve
bank
for
the
Eurozone.
The
ECB
sets
interest
rates
and
manages
monetary
policy.
The
ECB’s
primary
mandate
is
to
maintain
price
stability,
which
means
either
controlling
inflation
or
stimulating
growth.
Its
primary
tool
is
the
raising
or
lowering
of
interest
rates.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
–
or
the
expectation
of
higher
rates
–
will
usually
benefit
the
Euro
and
vice
versa.
The
ECB
Governing
Council
makes
monetary
policy
decisions
at
meetings
held
eight
times
a
year.
Decisions
are
made
by
heads
of
the
Eurozone
national
banks
and
six
permanent
members,
including
the
President
of
the
ECB,
Christine
Lagarde.
Eurozone
inflation
data,
measured
by
the
Harmonized
Index
of
Consumer
Prices
(HICP),
is
an
important
econometric
for
the
Euro.
If
inflation
rises
more
than
expected,
especially
if
above
the
ECB’s
2%
target,
it
obliges
the
ECB
to
raise
interest
rates
to
bring
it
back
under
control.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
compared
to
its
counterparts
will
usually
benefit
the
Euro,
as
it
makes
the
region
more
attractive
as
a
place
for
global
investors
to
park
their
money.
Data
releases
gauge
the
health
of
the
economy
and
can
impact
on
the
Euro.
Indicators
such
as
GDP,
Manufacturing
and
Services
PMIs,
employment,
and
consumer
sentiment
surveys
can
all
influence
the
direction
of
the
single
currency.
A
strong
economy
is
good
for
the
Euro.
Not
only
does
it
attract
more
foreign
investment
but
it
may
encourage
the
ECB
to
put
up
interest
rates,
which
will
directly
strengthen
the
Euro.
Otherwise,
if
economic
data
is
weak,
the
Euro
is
likely
to
fall.
Economic
data
for
the
four
largest
economies
in
the
euro
area
(Germany,
France,
Italy
and
Spain)
are
especially
significant,
as
they
account
for
75%
of
the
Eurozone’s
economy.
Another
significant
data
release
for
the
Euro
is
the
Trade
Balance.
This
indicator
measures
the
difference
between
what
a
country
earns
from
its
exports
and
what
it
spends
on
imports
over
a
given
period.
If
a
country
produces
highly
sought
after
exports
then
its
currency
will
gain
in
value
purely
from
the
extra
demand
created
from
foreign
buyers
seeking
to
purchase
these
goods.
Therefore,
a
positive
net
Trade
Balance
strengthens
a
currency
and
vice
versa
for
a
negative
balance.
RBNZ keeps interest rate steady at 5.50%, as expected
401485 July 10, 2024 13:14 FXStreet Market News
After
the
July
policy
meeting
conducted
on
Wednesday,
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
board
members
decided
to
keep
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
steady
at
5.50%.
The
decision
was
widely
in
line
with
the
market
expectations.
Summary
of
the
RBNZ
Monetary
Policy
Statement
(MPS)
Committee
agreed
that
monetary
policy
will
need
to
remain
restrictive.The
extent
of
this
restraint
will
be
tempered
over
time
consistent
with
the
expected
decline
in
inflation
pressures.Some
domestically
generated
price
pressures
remain
strong.But
there
are
signs
inflation
persistence
will
ease
in
line
with
the
fall
in
capacity
pressures
and
business
pricing
intentions.Current
and
expected
govt
spending
will
restrain
overall
spending
in
economy.The
level
of
economic
activity,
including
business
and
consumer
investment
spending
and
investment
intentions,
is
consistent
with
the
restrictive
monetary
stance.The
positive
impact
of
the
pending
tax
cuts
on
private
spending
is
less
certain.
Minutes
of
the
RBNZ
interest
rate
meeting
Committee
agreed
that
monetary
policy
will
need
to
remain
restrictive.Members
noted
a
risk
that
domestically
driven
inflation
could
be
more
persistent
in
the
near
term.Headline
inflation
is
expected
to
return
to
within
the
1
to
3
percent
target
range
in
the
second
half
of
this
year.Committee
is
confident
that
inflation
will
return
to
within
its
1-3
percent
target
range
over
the
second
half
of
2024.The
appropriate
stance
of
monetary
policy
was
discussed.
NZD/USD
reaction
to
the
RBNZ interest
rate
decision
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
came
under
intense
selling
pressure
in
an
immediate
reaction
to
the
RBNZ
’s
hold
decision.
The
NZD/USD
pair
currently
trades
around
0.6100,
down
0.40%
on
the
day.
New
Zealand
Dollar
PRICE
Today
The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
New
Zealand
Dollar
was
the
weakest
against
the
US
Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.00% | -0.03% | 0.13% | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.46% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.43% | 0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.03% | -0.00% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.43% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.13% | -0.11% | 0.27% | -0.13% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.45% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.03% | -0.02% | -0.02% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.41% | -0.02% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | -0.43% | -0.43% | -0.27% | -0.45% | -0.41% | -0.42% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.02% | 0.13% | -0.02% | 0.02% | 0.42% |
The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
NZD
(base)/USD
(quote).
New
Zealand
Dollar
FAQs
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD),
also
known
as
the
Kiwi,
is
a
well-known
traded
currency
among
investors.
Its
value
is
broadly
determined
by
the
health
of
the
New
Zealand
economy
and
the
country’s
central
bank
policy.
Still,
there
are
some
unique
particularities
that
also
can
make
NZD
move.
The
performance
of
the
Chinese
economy
tends
to
move
the
Kiwi
because
China
is
New
Zealand’s
biggest
trading
partner.
Bad
news
for
the
Chinese
economy
likely
means
less
New
Zealand
exports
to
the
country,
hitting
the
economy
and
thus
its
currency.
Another
factor
moving
NZD
is
dairy
prices
as
the
dairy
industry
is
New
Zealand’s
main
export.
High
dairy
prices
boost
export
income,
contributing
positively
to
the
economy
and
thus
to
the
NZD.
The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
aims
to
achieve
and
maintain
an
inflation
rate
between
1%
and
3%
over
the
medium
term,
with
a
focus
to
keep
it
near
the
2%
mid-point.
To
this
end,
the
bank
sets
an
appropriate
level
of
interest
rates.
When
inflation
is
too
high,
the
RBNZ
will
increase
interest
rates
to
cool
the
economy,
but
the
move
will
also
make
bond
yields
higher,
increasing
investors’
appeal
to
invest
in
the
country
and
thus
boosting
NZD.
On
the
contrary,
lower
interest
rates
tend
to
weaken
NZD.
The
so-called
rate
differential,
or
how
rates
in
New
Zealand
are
or
are
expected
to
be
compared
to
the
ones
set
by
the
US
Federal
Reserve,
can
also
play
a
key
role
in
moving
the
NZD/USD
pair.
Macroeconomic
data
releases
in
New
Zealand
are
key
to
assess
the
state
of
the
economy
and
can
impact
the
New
Zealand
Dollar’s
(NZD)
valuation.
A
strong
economy,
based
on
high
economic
growth,
low
unemployment
and
high
confidence
is
good
for
NZD.
High
economic
growth
attracts
foreign
investment
and
may
encourage
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
to
increase
interest
rates,
if
this
economic
strength
comes
together
with
elevated
inflation.
Conversely,
if
economic
data
is
weak,
NZD
is
likely
to
depreciate.
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
tends
to
strengthen
during
risk-on
periods,
or
when
investors
perceive
that
broader
market
risks
are
low
and
are
optimistic
about
growth.
This
tends
to
lead
to
a
more
favorable
outlook
for
commodities
and
so-called
‘commodity
currencies’
such
as
the
Kiwi.
Conversely,
NZD
tends
to
weaken
at
times
of
market
turbulence
or
economic
uncertainty
as
investors
tend
to
sell
higher-risk
assets
and
flee
to
the
more-stable
safe
havens.
This
section
below
was
published
at
21:15
GMT
on
Tuesday
as
a
preview
of
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
policy
announcements.
-
The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
is
expected
to
keep
rates
on
hold
at
5.50%
on
Wednesday. -
Upside
risks
to
inflation
to
offset
economic
concerns,
prompting
RBNZ
to
delay
any
dovish
shifts. -
The
New
Zealand
Dollar
gears
up
for
intense
volatility
on
the
RBNZ
policy
announcements.
Following
its
July
monetary
policy
meeting
on
Wednesday,
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
is
set
to
hold
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
at
5.50%,
extending
the
pause
into
an
eighth
meeting
in
a
row.
It’s
expected
to
be
a
straightforward
event,
with
no
press
conference
from
RBNZ
Governor
Adrian
Orr
and
the
release
of
updated
economic
projections.
However,
any
changes
to
the
RBNZ’s
communication
could
spark
a
big
reaction
in
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD).
What
to
expect
from
the
RBNZ
interest
rate
decision?
With
discouraging
economic
performance
alongside
the
persistence
of
inflation
risks,
a
rates
on-hold
decision
by
the
RBNZ
is
widely
anticipated
by
market
participants.
Therefore,
they
will
look
for
fresh
hints
on
the
timing
of
the
dovish
policy
pivot
in
the
central
bank’s
Monetary
Policy
Statement
(MPS).
New
Zealand’s
annual
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
increased
by
4%
in
the
first
quarter,
according
to
data
released
by
Stats
NZ,
following
a
4.7%
growth
in
the
12
months
to
the
December
2023
quarter.
Even
though
there
was
progress
in
disinflation,
the
non-tradable
inflation
remained
a
cause
for
concern.
Non-tradeable
inflation
was
5.8%
in
the
year
to
the
March
quarter,
a
tad
lower
than
the
5.9%
figure
seen
in
the
final
quarter
of
2023.
Meanwhile,
Stats
NZ
showed
on
June
19
a
0.2%
increase
in
GDP
in
the
first
quarter,
breaking
a
streak
of
quarterly
GDP
declines
that
had
led
to
the
country’s
recession
in
the
second
half
of
2023.
These
data
sets
are
likely
to
support
potential
delays
in
the
dovish
changes
to
the
policy
statement’s
language,
despite
some
analysts
arguing
against
them
amidst
declining
domestic
consumer
confidence
and
the
deepening
contraction
in
the
manufacturing
and
services
sectors.
ANZ
–
Roy
Morgan
New
Zealand
Consumer
Confidence
fell
to
83.0
in
June
from
the
previous
month’s
84.9,
sticking
close
to
multi-year
lows
in
the
sentiment
index.
The
Business
NZ
Performance
of
Services
Index
(PSI)
dropped
to
43.0
in
May
from
April’s
46.6
while
the
Business
NZ
Performance
of
Manufacturing
Index
(PMI)
contracted
to
47.2
in
May,
following
a
48.8
figure
in
April.
Previewing
the
RBNZ
policy
announcement,
analysts
at
TD
Securities
noted:
“While
there
are
signs
of
cracks
in
the
economy
(e.g.,
labor
market
easing,
contractionary
PMIs),
we
don’t
think
the
RBNZ
is
in
any
urgency
to
ease
given
the
upside
risks
to
inflation,
especially
from
services.”
How
will
the
RBNZ
interest
decision
impact
the
New
Zealand
Dollar?
The
NZD/USD
pair
is
on
the
front
foot
heading
into
the
RBNZ
showdown
on
Wednesday,
in
the
aftermath
of
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
demise
induced
by
Friday’s
US
labor
market
data
for
June.
The
downward
revisions
to
the
April
and
May
employment
data
prompted
investors
to
ramp
up
bets
that
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
lower
interest
rates
in
September.
Furthermore,
expectations
that
the
RBNZ
will
refrain
from
making
any
dovish
tweaks
before
the
July
16
second-quarter
inflation
report,
help
the
pair
maintain
its
recent
upswing.
“Market
has
more
than
fully
priced
in
a
November
rate
cut,
with
60%
odds
of
an
earlier
cut
in
October,”
per
BBH
Analysts.
If
the
MPS
remains
wary
of
the
upside
risks
to
inflation,
in
the
face
of
sticky
non-tradeable
goods
and
services
inflation
alongside
the
May
Budget
release,
the
Kiwi
Dollar
could
see
a
fresh
leg
higher
to
the
June
high
of
0.6222.
On
the
other
hand,
NZD/USD
is
seen
falling
back
toward
0.6000
should
the
RBNZ
do
away
with
its
hawkish
guidance,
hinting
at
a
policy
pivot
later
this
year.
Dhwani
Mehta,
FXStreet’s
Senior
Analyst,
offers
a
brief
technical
outlook
for
trading
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
on
the
RBNZ
policy
announcements:
“The
NZD/USD
pair
is
consolidating
the
previous
week’s
recovery,
deriving
strength
from
a
bullish
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
on
the
daily
time
frame.”
“The
next
bullish
target
for
the
Kiwi
is
seen
at
the
June
high
of
0.6222,
above
which
the
0.6250
psychological
level
will
challenged.
Further
up,
the
0.6300
threshold
will
be
in
sight.
Alternatively,
a
failure
to
defend
the
confluence
of
100-day
and
200-day
SMAs
at
0.6070
could
open
the
downside
toward
the
0.6000
level,”
Dhwani
adds.
Economic
Indicator
RBNZ
Interest
Rate
Decision
The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
announces
its
interest
rate
decision
after
its
seven
scheduled
annual
policy
meetings.
If
the
RBNZ
is
hawkish
and
sees
inflationary
pressures
rising,
it
raises
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
to
bring
inflation
down.
This
is
positive
for
the
New
Zealand
Dollar
(NZD)
since
higher
interest
rates
attract
more
capital
inflows.
Likewise,
if
it
reaches
the
view
that
inflation
is
too
low
it
lowers
the
OCR,
which
tends
to
weaken
NZD.
NZD/USD slumps on dovish RBNZ but key support levels still holding
401484 July 10, 2024 12:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
In
fact,
the
rates
market
is
pricing
in
nearly
two
rate
cuts
for
the
remainder
three
meetings
by
the
RBNZ
for
this
year
now.
The
first
full
rate
cut
is
priced
in
for
October,
with
odds
of
an
August
move
also
bumped
up
to
~60%
currently.
Traders
are
seeing
~46
bps
of
rate
cuts
by
year-end.
So,
how
did
that
weigh
on
the
kiwi?
NZD/USD
daily
chart
NZD/USD
was
brought
lower
from
0.6128
to
a
low
of
0.6075
on
the
decision
earlier.
In
case
you
missed
it:
The
pair
has
bounced
back
a
little
to
around
0.6090
levels
now
but
essentially,
buyers
are
still
holding
on
in
the
bigger
picture.
At
the
end
of
last
month,
we
saw
the
downside
price
action
test
the
100
(red
line)
and
200-day
(blue
line)
moving
averages.
And
that
is
also
where
we
are
seeing
price
action
move
close
to
now.
The
confluence
of
the
key
levels
is
seen
at
0.6071-73
currently.
Hold
above
that
and
buyers
are
still
staying
in
the
game.
But
break
below
and
sellers
will
have
renewed
conviction
in
search
for
a
further
downside.
The
end
June
and
early
July
lows
at
0.6047-57
will
also
be
one
to
watch.
The
divergence
between
the
kiwi
and
the
dollar
is
evident
by
the
stance
between
the
two
central
banks
currently.
While
the
RBNZ
is
teeing
up
rate
cuts
for
later
this
year,
the
Fed
is
holding
steadfast
with
Powell
reaffirming
a
more
on
hold
stance
yesterday.
That
could
exacerbate
more
near-term
downside
for
NZD/USD,
although
we
still
have
the
US
CPI
report
coming
up
later
this
week.
Netherlands, The Manufacturing Output (MoM) dipped from previous 0.4% to -0.4% in May
401483 July 10, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
Information
on
these
pages
contains
forward-looking
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that
involve
risks
and
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and
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profiled
on
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way
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stays in a tight range around $31 with US Inflation in focus
401481 July 10, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Silver
price
trades
sideways
around
$31.00
as
investors
await
the
US
Inflation
report
for
June. -
Fed
Powell
signaled
that
the
labor
market
strength
appears
to
be
easing. -
Silver
price
holds
the
Falling
Channel
breakout.
Silver
price
(XAG/USD)
trades
sideways
near
$31.00
in
Wednesday’s
Asian
session.
The
white
metal
consolidates
even
though
the
commentary
from
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell,
in
his
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony
on
Wednesday,
indicated
that
risks
to
the
Fed’s
dual
mandate
are
finely
balanced.
Fed
Powell
acknowledged
that
labor
market
conditions
are
no
tighter
enough
that
was
experienced
after
mammoth
liquidity
infusion
in
pandemic
era.
On
inflation,
Powell
commented
that
the
Fed
has
made
some
progress
in
inflation
in
recent
months
and
more
good
data
would
bolster
the
case
for
looser
monetary
policy,
Reuters
reported.
However,
Powell
still
not
delivered
any
timeframe
for
rate
cuts
but
his
commentary
has
kept
strength
in
market
expectations
for
the
Fed
to
begin
reducing
interest
rates
from
September
intact.
Meanwhile,
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
has
remained
under
pressure
ahead
of
the
United
States
(US)
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
report
for
June,
which
will
be
published
on
Thursday.
The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
gains
ground
above
the
almost
four-week
low
of
104.85.10-year
US
Treasury
yields
and
consolidates
around
4.30%.
Silver
technical
analysis
Silver
price
extends
its
upside
to
near
$31.00
after
a
breakout
of
the
Falling
Channel
formation
on
a
four-hour
timeframe.
An
upside
break
of
the
above-mentioned
chart
pattern
results
in
a
bullish
reversal.
Upward-sloping
20-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
at
$30.70,
exhibits
a
bullish
trend.
The
14-period
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
shifts
into
the
bullish
range
of
60.00-80.00,
indicating
that
momentum
has
shifted
to
the
upside.
Silver
four-hour
chart
Silver
FAQs
Silver
is
a
precious
metal
highly
traded
among
investors.
It
has
been
historically
used
as
a
store
of
value
and
a
medium
of
exchange.
Although
less
popular
than
Gold,
traders
may
turn
to
Silver
to
diversify
their
investment
portfolio,
for
its
intrinsic
value
or
as
a
potential
hedge
during
high-inflation
periods.
Investors
can
buy
physical
Silver,
in
coins
or
in
bars,
or
trade
it
through
vehicles
such
as
Exchange
Traded
Funds,
which
track
its
price
on
international
markets.
Silver
prices
can
move
due
to
a
wide
range
of
factors.
Geopolitical
instability
or
fears
of
a
deep
recession
can
make
Silver
price
escalate
due
to
its
safe-haven
status,
although
to
a
lesser
extent
than
Gold’s.
As
a
yieldless
asset,
Silver
tends
to
rise
with
lower
interest
rates.
Its
moves
also
depend
on
how
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
behaves
as
the
asset
is
priced
in
dollars
(XAG/USD).
A
strong
Dollar
tends
to
keep
the
price
of
Silver
at
bay,
whereas
a
weaker
Dollar
is
likely
to
propel
prices
up.
Other
factors
such
as
investment
demand,
mining
supply
–
Silver
is
much
more
abundant
than
Gold
–
and
recycling
rates
can
also
affect
prices.
Silver
is
widely
used
in
industry,
particularly
in
sectors
such
as
electronics
or
solar
energy,
as
it
has
one
of
the
highest
electric
conductivity
of
all
metals
–
more
than
Copper
and
Gold.
A
surge
in
demand
can
increase
prices,
while
a
decline
tends
to
lower
them.
Dynamics
in
the
US,
Chinese
and
Indian
economies
can
also
contribute
to
price
swings:
for
the
US
and
particularly
China,
their
big
industrial
sectors
use
Silver
in
various
processes;
in
India,
consumers’
demand
for
the
precious
metal
for
jewellery
also
plays
a
key
role
in
setting
prices.
Silver
prices
tend
to
follow
Gold’s
moves.
When
Gold
prices
rise,
Silver
typically
follows
suit,
as
their
status
as
safe-haven
assets
is
similar.
The
Gold/Silver
ratio,
which
shows
the
number
of
ounces
of
Silver
needed
to
equal
the
value
of
one
ounce
of
Gold,
may
help
to
determine
the
relative
valuation
between
both
metals.
Some
investors
may
consider
a
high
ratio
as
an
indicator
that
Silver
is
undervalued,
or
Gold
is
overvalued.
On
the
contrary,
a
low
ratio
might
suggest
that
Gold
is
undervalued
relative
to
Silver.