Articles

US Dollar battle to regain is crow: Does it all depend on the Fed?

401604   July 11, 2024 02:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  The
  US
  Dollar
  Index
  has
  been
  confined
  to
  a
  well-limited
  range
  since
  the
  year
  started.
• 
  The
  Federal
  Reserve
  has
  the
  power
  to
  direct
  the
  USD’s
  direction
  but
  will
  not
  use
  it
  just
  yet.
• 
  The
  case
  of
  a
  USD
  steeper
  decline
  remains
  out
  of
  the
  picture
  regardless
  of
  Fed’s
  decisions.

The
world’s
leading
currency
has
been
struggling
to
regain
its
crow
throughout
the
first
half
of
the
year,
as
optimism
about
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
delivering
three
rate
cuts
and
leading
the
way
on
monetary
loosening
diluted
as
time
passed.

In
fact,
the
second
half
of
the
year
started
with
Canada
and
several
European
central
banks,
including
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB),
having
already
delivered
interest
rate
cuts,
while
the
Fed
sat
on
its
hands
and
gave
no
signs
of
abandoning
the
tight
monetary
path.

The
US
Dollar
Index,
a
measure
of
the
value
of
the
US
Dollar
relative
to
a
basket
of
foreign
currencies,
has
traded
between
102.00
and
106.00
since
early
January.
It
came
down
from
a
peak
at
112.17
posted
in
September
2022
and
fell
towards
the
99.00
level
in
July
2023,
when
the
market
began
foreseeing
the
end
of
the
tightening
cycle.

But
is
it
all
about
the
Fed?

According
to
the
US
Bureau
of
Labour
Statistics,
the

United
States
(US)
real
Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
increased
at
an
annual
rate
of
1.4%
in
the
first
quarter
of
2024.

The
figure
indicated
a
deceleration
in
economic
growth,
primarily
attributed
to
“decelerations
in
consumer
spending,
exports,
and
state
and
local
government
spending,
and
a
downturn
in
federal
government
spending,”
according
to
the
official
report.
However,
the
economic
expansion
continues
regardless
of
the
pace,
and
the
recession’s
ghost
has
been
long
spooked
away.

Meanwhile,
inflation,
as
measured
by
the
Personal
Consumption
Expenditures
(PCE)
Price
Index,
edged
lower
to
2.6%
YoY
in
May
from
2.7%
in
the
previous
month.
The
core
annual
reading
printed
at
2.6%,
easing
from
the
2.8%
recorded
in
April.
While
it
remains
above
the
Fed’s
2%
goal,
inflation
has
resumed
its
decline
after
some
unfriendly
readings
in
the
first
quarter
of
the
year.

Finally,
a
healthy
labor
market
seems
to
have
found
its
balance.
Job
creation
continues
while
the
unemployment
rate
stands
at
4.1%,
and
wage
inflation
is
also
receding.

It
is
worth
remembering
that
the

Federal
Reserve
has
the
dual
mandate
of
promoting
maximum
employment
and
stable
prices.
It
has
never
been
closer
to
such
goals
since
before
the
coronavirus
pandemic.

Then,
what
is
halting
the
Fed
from
moving
forward
with
rate
cuts?

Fed
policymakers
started
the
year
anticipating
three
potential
rate
cuts
in
2024,
but
the
uptick
in
inflation
in
the
first
quarter
of
the
year
cooled
down
such
expectations.
A
stubbornly
tight
labor
market
added
to
the
negative
outcome
of
the
equation.
By
May,
financial
markets
reduced
hopes
to
just
one
cut
in
2024,
with
the
focus
currently
on
November
as
a
potential
date
for
the
first
25
basis
points
(bps)
reduction.

The
economy
is
moving
in
the
right
direction
but
has
not
yet
reached
the
finish
line.
In
such
a
scenario,
policymakers
refuse
to
move
forward
and
risk
inflation
resuming
its
upward
trend.
Yet,
at
the
same
time,
market
players
refuse
to
drop
hopes
of
easing
interest
rates.
As
a
result,
the
US
Dollar
keeps
trading
in
limbo.

US
Dollar’s
destiny
explained

Generally
speaking,
solid
economic
developments
are
reflected
by
a
stronger
currency.
Rate
cuts,
however,
have
the
opposite
result,
with
the
currency
depreciating
as
rates
drop.
But
would
that
be
the
case?

The
best
example
may
come
from
the
Euro,
which
barely
shed
ground
vs
the
USD
when
the

ECB
announced
the
first
interest
rate
trim.
The
world
is
in
a
different
scenario,
and
whatever
happened
in
the
past
won’t
grant
a
similar
outcome
in
the
future.
The
USD
may
actually
appreciate
after
the
initial
reaction,
as
the
overall
economic
performance
will
prevail.

One
word
of
warning:
not
one
nor
two
rate
cuts
will
be
enough
to
ease
the
burden
on
US
consumers.
Record
mortgage
rates
were
one
of
the
main
factors
before
the
economic
slowdown.
The
Fed
can
easily
deliver
up
to
three
rate
cuts
without
actually
accelerating
the
economy
to
the
point
it
may
start
generating
inflation.

The
US
Dollar
Index
shows
no
signs
of
leaving
the
102.00
–
106.00
range,
which
most
likely
will
depend
on
what
the
market
believes
on
rate
cuts.
A
bullish
breakout
should
expose
the
107.35,
the
September
2023
monthly
high,
which,
at
this
point,
seems
the
most
likely
scenario.
A
side
below
102.00
seems
too
far
away
at
this
point.
Interim
support
is
found
at
104.00
and
103.15,
while
hell
should
break
loose
for
the
US
Dollar
Index
to
pierce
the
102.00
level,
a
scenario
not
supported
by
the
US
economic
situation. 

Senators propose ban on congressional stock trading

401603   July 11, 2024 01:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

High
risk
warning:

Foreign
exchange
trading
carries
a
high
level
of
risk
that
may
not
be
suitable
for
all
investors.
Leverage
creates
additional
risk
and
loss
exposure.
Before
you
decide
to
trade
foreign
exchange,
carefully
consider
your
investment
objectives,
experience
level,
and
risk
tolerance.
You
could
lose
some
or
all
your
initial
investment;
do
not
invest
money
that
you
cannot
afford
to
lose.
Educate
yourself
on
the
risks
associated
with
foreign
exchange
trading
and
seek
advice
from
an
independent
financial
or
tax
advisor
if
you
have
any
questions.

Advisory
warning:

FOREXLIVE™
is
not
an
investment
advisor,
FOREXLIVE™
provides
references
and
links
to
selected
news,
blogs
and
other
sources
of
economic
and
market
information
for
informational
purposes
and
as
an
educational
service
to
its
clients
and
prospects
and
does
not
endorse
the
opinions
or
recommendations
of
the
blogs
or
other
sources
of
information.
Clients
and
prospects
are
advised
to
carefully
consider
the
opinions
and
analysis
offered
in
the
blogs
or
other
information
sources
in
the
context
of
the
client
or
prospect’s
individual
analysis
and
decision
making.
None
of
the
blogs
or
other
sources
of
information
is
to
be
considered
as
constituting
a
track
record.
Past
performance
is
no
guarantee
of
future
results
and
FOREXLIVE™
specifically
hereby
acknowledges
clients
and
prospects
to
carefully
review
all
claims
and
representations
made
by
advisors,
bloggers,
money
managers
and
system
vendors
before
investing
any
funds
or
opening
an
account
with
any
Forex
dealer.
Any
news,
opinions,
research,
data,
or
other
information
contained
within
this
website
is
provided
on
an
“as-is”
basis
as
a
general
market
commentary
and
does
not
constitute
investment
or
trading
advice,
and
we
do
not
purport
to
present
the
entire
relevant
or
available
public
information
with
respect
to
a
specific
market
or
security.
FOREXLIVE™
expressly
disclaims
any
liability
for
any
lost
principal
or
profits
which
may
arise
directly
or
indirectly
from
the
use
of
or
reliance
on
such
information,
or
with
respect
to
any
of
the
content
presented
within
its
website,
nor
its
editorial
choices.

Disclaimer:

FOREXLIVE™
may
be
compensated
by
the
advertisers
that
appear
on
the
website,
based
on
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interaction
with
the
advertisements
or
advertisers.

Finance
Magnates
CY
Limited

BoE’s Mann: We need to see sustained slower service inflation

401602   July 11, 2024 01:39   FXStreet   Market News  

Bank
of
England
(BoE)
Monetary
Policy
Committee
member
Catherine
Mann
noted
on
Wednesday
that
overall
progress
on
inflation
has
been
“touch-and-go”,
and
warned
of
a
potential
rebound
in
headline
inflation
figures.

Key
highlights

The
supply
side
of
the
economy
is
growing
very
slowly,
I
still
see
labour
market
tightness.

Wage
growth
is
still
far
away
from
being
constistent
with
the
inflation
target.

We
need
to
see
sustained
slower
service
inflation.

Until
I
see
some
deceleration
in
services
prices,
I’m
not
in
a
position
to
cut.

The
2%
inflation
we
see
now
is
a
touch
and
go,
it
will
be
above
2%
for
the
rest
of
the
year,
that
matters
for
my
decision
making.

AUD/USD Forecast: Constructive bias persists above the 200-day SMA

401600   July 11, 2024 01:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  AUD/USD
  maintained
  its
  bullish
  stance
  well
  in
  place
  above
  0.6700.
• 
  The
  US
  Dollar
  traded
  on
  the
  defensive
  ahead
  of
  US
  CPI.
• 
  Australian
  Consumer
  Inflation
  Expectations
  come
  on
  Thursday.

Another
firm
session
saw

AUD/USD
extend
its
advance
further
north
of
the
0.6700
barrier
on
Wednesday,
adding
to
Tuesday’s
gains
and
trading
closer
to
recent
monthly
highs
in
the
0.6760-0.6765
band
(July
8).

The
pair’s
second
uptick
in
a
row
was
driven
by
an
incipient
weakness
in
the
US
Dollar
(USD),
as
investors
parsed
Chief
Jerome
Powell’s
second
semi-annual
testimony
before
Congress.
On
this,
Powell
adopted
a
cautious
stance
on
the
potential
timing
of
a
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
interest
rate
cut,
indicating
that
more
evidence
of
inflation
trending
towards
the
target
is
necessary
before
making
any
rate
adjustments.

In
a
more
domestic
scenario,
the
Australian
dollar’s
uptick
was
influenced
by
some
signs
of
life
in
copper
and
iron
ore
prices,
which
managed
to
dissipate
part
of
the
recent
bearishness.

In
terms
of
monetary
policy,
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA),
like
the

Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
is
expected
to
be
among
the
last
G10
central
banks
to
begin
cutting
interest
rates.

In
its
latest
meeting,
the
RBA
maintained
a
hawkish
stance,
keeping
the
official
cash
rate
at
4.35%
and
expressing
flexibility
for
future
decisions.
The
Minutes
from
that
meeting
revealed
that
the
decision
to
hold
the
policy
rate
was
primarily
due
to
“uncertainty
around
consumption
data
and
clear
evidence
of
financial
stress
among
many
households.”

Overall,
the
RBA
is
in
no
rush
to
ease
policy,
expecting
that
it
will
take
some
time
before
inflation
is
sustainably
within
the
2-3%
target
range.
There
is
approximately
a
25%
probability
of
a
rate
reduction
in
August,
rising
to
around
50%
in
the
subsequent
months.

Moreover,
the
potential
easing
by
the
Fed,
contrasted
with
the
RBA’s
likely
prolonged
restrictive
stance,
could
support
AUD/USD
in
the
coming
months.

However,
concerns
about
sluggish
momentum
in
the
Chinese
economy
might
impede
a
sustained
recovery
of
the
Australian
currency
as
China
continues
to
face
post-pandemic
challenges.
Something
to
bear
in
mind
is
the
persistent
lack
of
traction
in
Chinese
inflation,
which
could
eventually
morph
into
some
sort
of
stimulus
from
the
PBoC.
According
to
latest
data,
the
Inflation
Rate
in
China
rose
by
0.2%
in.
the
year
to
June
and
contracted
by
0.2%
vs.
the
previous
month.
Furthermore,
Producer
Prices
contracted
by
0.8%
from
a
year
earlier.

AUD/USD
daily
chart

AUD/USD
short-term
technical
outlook

If
bulls
push
further
and
AUD/USD
clears
the
July
high
of
0.6761
(July
8),
it
might
challenge
the
December
2023
top
of
0.6871,
followed
by
the
July
2023
peak
of
0.6894
(July
14),
all
ahead
of
the
critical
0.7000
barrier.

Bearish
attempts,
on
the
other
hand,
might
push
the
pair
lower,
first
to
the
June
low
of
0.6574
(June
10)
and
then
to
the
important
200-day
SMA
of
0.6567.
A
further
dip
might
result
in
a
return
to
the
May
low
of
0.6465
and
the
2024
bottom
of
0.6362
(April
19).

Overall,
the
uptrend
should
continue
as
long
as
AUD/USD
is
above
the
200-day
SMA.

The
4-hour
chart
reveals
that
the
pair
is
trapped
inside
a
consolidative
range.
However,
0.6761
looks
to
be
the
early
obstacle,
ahead
of
0.6871.
On
the
other
hand,
0.6709
offers
immediate
support,
ahead
of
the
55-SMA
of
0.6703.
The
RSI
eased
to
approximately
58.

US treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a higher yield of 4.276%

401599   July 11, 2024 01:15   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

High
risk
warning:

Foreign
exchange
trading
carries
a
high
level
of
risk
that
may
not
be
suitable
for
all
investors.
Leverage
creates
additional
risk
and
loss
exposure.
Before
you
decide
to
trade
foreign
exchange,
carefully
consider
your
investment
objectives,
experience
level,
and
risk
tolerance.
You
could
lose
some
or
all
your
initial
investment;
do
not
invest
money
that
you
cannot
afford
to
lose.
Educate
yourself
on
the
risks
associated
with
foreign
exchange
trading
and
seek
advice
from
an
independent
financial
or
tax
advisor
if
you
have
any
questions.

Advisory
warning:

FOREXLIVE™
is
not
an
investment
advisor,
FOREXLIVE™
provides
references
and
links
to
selected
news,
blogs
and
other
sources
of
economic
and
market
information
for
informational
purposes
and
as
an
educational
service
to
its
clients
and
prospects
and
does
not
endorse
the
opinions
or
recommendations
of
the
blogs
or
other
sources
of
information.
Clients
and
prospects
are
advised
to
carefully
consider
the
opinions
and
analysis
offered
in
the
blogs
or
other
information
sources
in
the
context
of
the
client
or
prospect’s
individual
analysis
and
decision
making.
None
of
the
blogs
or
other
sources
of
information
is
to
be
considered
as
constituting
a
track
record.
Past
performance
is
no
guarantee
of
future
results
and
FOREXLIVE™
specifically
hereby
acknowledges
clients
and
prospects
to
carefully
review
all
claims
and
representations
made
by
advisors,
bloggers,
money
managers
and
system
vendors
before
investing
any
funds
or
opening
an
account
with
any
Forex
dealer.
Any
news,
opinions,
research,
data,
or
other
information
contained
within
this
website
is
provided
on
an
“as-is”
basis
as
a
general
market
commentary
and
does
not
constitute
investment
or
trading
advice,
and
we
do
not
purport
to
present
the
entire
relevant
or
available
public
information
with
respect
to
a
specific
market
or
security.
FOREXLIVE™
expressly
disclaims
any
liability
for
any
lost
principal
or
profits
which
may
arise
directly
or
indirectly
from
the
use
of
or
reliance
on
such
information,
or
with
respect
to
any
of
the
content
presented
within
its
website,
nor
its
editorial
choices.

Disclaimer:

FOREXLIVE™
may
be
compensated
by
the
advertisers
that
appear
on
the
website,
based
on
your
interaction
with
the
advertisements
or
advertisers.

Finance
Magnates
CY
Limited

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD looking to challenge the $2,400 mark

401597   July 11, 2024 01:14   FXStreet   Market News  

XAU/USD
Current
price:
$2,378.41

• 
  Federal
  Reserve
  Chair
  Jerome
  Powell
  repeated
  his
  hawkish
  message
  before
  Congress.
• 
  An
  update
  on
  the
  US
  Consumer
  Price
  Index
  will
  be
  out
  on
  Thursday.
• 
  XAU/USD
  gains
  upward
  traction
  in
  the
  near
  term
  and
  aims
  to
  extend
  gains
  beyond
  $2,400.

Gold
keeps
trimming
Monday
losses
and
flirts
with
the
$2,380
level
in
the
American
session,
as
a
better
market
mood
undermines
demand
for
the
US
Dollar.
In
the
absence
of
relevant
macroeconomic
data,
investors
maintained
the
focus
on
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)

Chairman
Jerome
Powell,
who
testified
before
Congress
for
a
second
consecutive
day.

Powell
repeated
the
mostly
hawkish
message
delivered
on
Tuesday,
adding
that
policymakers
see
the
current
Fed
policy
as
restrictive,
while
they
believe
the
neutral
interest
rate
must
have
moved
up,
at
least
in
the
short
term.
On
a
positive
note,
Powell
added
that
he
sees
“considerable”
softening
in
the
labor
market.
Finally,
Powell
said
that
he
has
confidence
in
inflation
coming
down,
but
he
is
not
prepared
to
say
he
is
sufficiently
confident
in
it
coming
sustainably
down
to
2%
yet.

Stock
markets
reflect
the
risk-on
mood,
with
Wall
Street
posting
substantial
gains
and
trading
near
record
highs.
Government
bond
yields,
in
the
meantime,
remain
depressed
near
multi-week
lows,
with
the
2-year
Treasury
note
offering
4.62%
and
the
10-year
note
yielding
4.28%.
The
curve
shrinks
but
remains
inverted,
usually
seen
as
a
sign
of
an
upcoming
recession.
At
this
point,
it
may
be
more
like
a
short-lived
setback,
as
the
idea
of
a
US
recession
has
long
ago
left
the
market’s
minds.

Investors
will
now
focus
on
the
upcoming
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
figures
to
be
released
on
Thursday.
Annual
inflation
is
foreseen
up
3.1%
in
June,
while
the
monthly
increase
is
expected
to
be
0.1%.
Finally,
the
core
annual
CPI
is
foreseen
unchanged
at
3.4%.
Easing
inflationary
pressures
may
boost
speculation
the
Fed
will
advance
an
interest
rate
cut
to
September
rather
than
November,
as
is
currently
anticipated.

XAU/USD
short-term
technical
outlook
 

From
a
technical
point
of
view,
the
risk
in

XAU/USD
skews
to
the
upside.
The
daily
chart
shows
that
the
pair
trades
above
all
its
moving
averages,
with
a
bullish
20
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
gaining
upward
traction
at
around
$2,338
while
above
the
longer
ones.
Technical

indicators,
however,
lack
directional
momentum
but
hold
within
positive
levels,
indicating
sellers
remain
side-lined.

In
the
near
term,
and
according
to
the
4-hour
chart,
XAU/USD
seems
poised
to
extend
its
advance.
The
Momentum
indicator
aims
north
and
crosses
its
midline
into
positive
territory,
while
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
indicator
consolidates
at
around
62.
At
the
same
time,
the
bright
metal
recovered
above
the
20
SMA
while
the
100
SMA
crosses
above
the
200
SMA
below
the
shorter
one.

 Support
levels:
2,363.20
2,349.30
2,335.00
 

Resistance
levels:
2,386.60
2,400.00
2,416.90

United States 10-Year Note Auction dipped from previous 4.438% to 4.276%

401596   July 11, 2024 01:14   FXStreet   Market News  

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Advances steadily above 1.2800 on BoE’s Pill remarks

401594   July 11, 2024 00:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  GBP/USD
  rises
  to
  1.2842,
  boosted
  by
  BoE’s
  Huw
  Pill’s
  caution
  against
  basing
  policy
  on
  single
  data
  points.
• 
  Bullish
  momentum
  intact,
  targeting
  June
  12
  high
  of
  1.2861
  and
  YTD
  high
  of
  1.2894.
• 
  Key
  support
  levels:
  1.2800,
  1.2755/70,
  and
  1.2690
  (50-day
  moving
  average)
  for
  potential
  reversals.

The
Pound

Sterling
resumed
its
uptrend
on
Wednesday
and
rallied
sharply
on

Bank
of
England
Chief
Economist
Huw
Pill’s
remarks
that
the
Monetary
Policy
Committee
(MPC)
should
be
cautious
in
seeing
a
single
piece
of
data
as
a
trigger
for
policy
reassessment.
Hence,
the
GBP/USD
trades
at
1.2842,
posting
gains
of
0.44%.

GBP/USD
Price
Analysis:
Technical
outlook

From
a
technical
standpoint,
the
GBP/USD
resumed
its
uptrend
after
bouncing
off
weekly
lows
set
on
Tuesday
of
around
1.2779,
with
buyers
stepping
in
and
lifting
the
exchange
rate.
Momentum
favors
buyers,
as
depicted
by
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI),
and
the
pair
might
test
the
year-to-date
(YTD)
high
in
the
near
term.

The
GBP/USD
first
resistance
would
be
the
June
12
high
at
1.2861.
Once
cleared
the
next
stop
will
be
the
YTD
high
at
1.2894,
followed
by
the
1.2900
figure
and
the
1.3000
mark.

Conversely,
if
GBP/USD
shifts
negatively
and
drops
below
1.2800,
the
first
support
would
be
the
confluence
of
two
support
trendlines
at
around
1.2755/70,
followed
by
the
50-day
moving
average
(DMA)
at
1.2690.
A
change
of
trend
is
seen
once
the
pair
tumbles
below
the
June
27
cycle
low
of
1.2612.

GBP/USD
Price
Action
–
Daily
Chart

Powell speech: We see current Fed policy as restrictive

401593   July 11, 2024 00:39   FXStreet   Market News  

Jerome
Powell,
Chairman
of
the
US

Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
delivers
the
Semi-Annual
Monetary
Policy
Report
and
responds
to
questions
before
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee
on
the
second
day
of
his
Congressional
testimony. 

Key
takeaways

“We
see
current
Fed
policy
as
restrictive.”

“The
neutral
interest
rate
must
have
moved
up
at
least
in
the
short
term.”

“We
know
we
have
to
adapt
bank
stress
tests
over
time.”

“Main
thing
is
to
get
it
right
on
bank
capital
proposal.”

Russia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.7%) in June: Actual (0.6%)

401592   July 11, 2024 00:14   FXStreet   Market News  

Crude oil regains some track – TDS

401591   July 11, 2024 00:14   FXStreet   Market News  

Crude
oil’s
resilience
has
seen
Commodity
Trading
Advisors
(CTAs)
add
back
their
notable
length
in

WTI.
The
impact
to
oil
supply
from
hurricane
Beryl
was
less
than
expected,
TDS
analysts
note.

CTAs
add
back
their
notable
length
in WTI

“Crude
oil’s
resilience
has
seen
CTAs
add
back
their
notable
length
in WTI,
and
for
now,
it
is
likely
these
funds
will
hold
onto
their
position
unless
prices
sink
below
the
key
$80/bbl
region
which
has
held
strong
since
the
revival
of
the
supply
risk
premia
tied
to
Middle
East
tensions
and
an
early
start
to
what
experts
are
suggesting
will
be
a
busy
hurricane
season.”

“However,
with
that
said,
we
highlight
that
the
risk
premia
associated
with
Middle
East
tensions
tends
to
quickly
erode
without
an
escalation
to
a
broader
conflict,
and
with
systematic
flows
hitting
elevated
long
levels,
the
lack
of
persistent
buying
is
likely
to
soon
weigh
on
the
market
should
the
risk
premia
ease.”

“Meanwhile,
the
impact
to
oil
supply
from
hurricane
Beryl
was
less
than
expected,
adding
further
downward
pressure
to
the
market.”

Industrial metal complex ex. Copper contracts – TDS

401590   July 10, 2024 23:39   FXStreet   Market News  

In
the
industrial
metals
complex
Commodity
Trading
Advisors
(CTAs)
have
turned
sellers
of
Zinc,
Lead
and
Nickel,
while
Copper
sees
a
continuation
of
the
early
week
rally,
TDS
commodity
analysts
note.

Copper
grows,
other
metals
sell
off

“In
the
industrial
metals
complex
CTAs
have
turned
sellers
of
Zinc,
Lead
and
Nickel.
Meanwhile,
the
failure
of
Copper
to
see
a
continuation
of
the
early
week
rally
is
seeing
the
selling
trigger
creep
closer
to
market
yet
again,
with
the
first
key
downside
momentum
trigger
sitting
at
$9,598/t.

“After
briefly
covering
shorts
and
building
a
small
net
long
position,
top
traders
on
the
Shanghai
Futures
Exchange
(SHFE)
have
once
again
liquidated
positions,
bringing
the
red
metal
into
a
net
short
territory
again.”

“With
our
gauge
of
global
commodity
demand
continuing
to
weaken,
while
depressed
premiums
and
surging
inventories
in
the
Middle
Kingdom
argue
against
fundamental
tightness,
there
are
plenty
of
potential
catalysts
that
could
still
see
prices
ease
once
again.”