Articles
AUD/NZD rallies as RBNZ signals dovish shift
401624 July 11, 2024 04:14 FXStreet Market News
-
AUD/NZD
witnessed
a
significant
rise
to
1.1090,
to
multi-year
highs. -
The
RBNZ
kept
rates
steady
at
5.5%,
signaling
a
willingness
to
ease
sooner
rather
than
later. -
RBA
and
RBNZ
policy
discrepancies
might
favor
the
AUD.
On
Wednesday,
the
AUD/NZD
rose
to
a
fresh
high
since
2022,
in
reaction
to
the
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
decision.
The
RBNZ,
as
expected,
kept
the
Official
Cash
Rate
(OCR)
anchored
at
5.50%,
but
hinted
at
potential
rate
cuts
in
the
near
future.
The
RBNZ
highlighted
the
signs
of
easing
inflation
persistence
and
the
expectation
of
headline
CPI
returning
to
target
in
the
second
half
of
the
year.
Moreover,
it
addressed
the
impact
of
tight
policy
measures
on
the
economy
and
deviated
from
the
May
22
meeting
where
Governor
Orr
confessed
that
a
hike
was
a
“real
consideration”.
Following
the
decision,
a
rate
cut
is
now
priced
in
October,
with
the
market
pricing
in
nearly
60%
odds
of
an
earlier
cut
in
August.
On
the
other
hand,
while
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
seriously
considers
a
hike,
the
pair
may
see
more
upside.
AUD/NZD
technical
analysis
In
the
short-term,
the
AUD/NZD
maintains
a
bullish
momentum
due
to
the
recent
rally
but
overbought
conditions
seen
in
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
indicate
that
a
correction
may
be
imminent.
Support
levels
have
moved
and
now
stand
at
1.1050,
1.1000,
and
1.0950.
The
next
challenge
for
buyers
is
to
reach
and
retain
the
1.1100
target
point.
AUD/NZD
daily
chart
BofA: What we expect from the US June CPI print on Thursday
401623 July 11, 2024 03:40 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Bank
of
America
believes
the
Fed
will
first
cut
rates
in
December
but
conceded
that
much
of
what
happens
next
could
hinge
on
Thursday’s
inflation
report.
The
market
is
pricing
in
19
bps
of
easing
through
the
Sept
FOMC
and
50.6
bps
by
year
end.
For
this
report,
BofA
forecasts
a
modest
increase
in
both
headline
and
core
CPI,
which
should
be
favorable
for
the
Fed.
Key
Points:
-
Headline
CPI:
Expected
to
rise
by
0.1%
month-on-month
(0.11%
unrounded)
due
to
another
drop
in
energy
prices,
leading
to
a
year-on-year
rate
of
3.2%
and
an
NSA
index
of
314.770. -
Core
CPI:
Predicted
to
increase
by
0.2%
month-on-month
(0.24%
unrounded).
Although
slightly
higher
than
May,
it
would
still
be
a
positive
outcome
for
the
Fed. -
Fed
Rate
Cuts:
Should
the
CPI
report
align
with
these
expectations,
BofA
maintains
their
forecast
for
the
Fed
to
begin
its
rate-cutting
cycle
in
December.
However,
a
consistent
0.2%
month-on-month
increase
in
Core
CPI
could
tilt
the
risk
towards
an
earlier
cut,
especially
with
signs
of
softening
economic
activity.
Conclusion:
BofA
expects
the
June
CPI
report
to
show
modest
increases
in
both
headline
and
core
CPI,
reinforcing
the
positive
trends
from
May.
This
should
support
the
Fed’s
current
policy
trajectory,
with
potential
for
rate
cuts
starting
in
December,
unless
continued
low
Core
CPI
prints
suggest
an
earlier
intervention.
For
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trade
ideas,
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per
month.
Get
it
here.
Australian Dollar mildly up on quiet Wednesday, markets gear up for US CPI
401622 July 11, 2024 03:39 FXStreet Market News
-
AUD
made
mild
gains
on
Wednesday
against
the
USD. -
Markets
are
still
deciphering
Jerome
Powell’s
cautious
stance,
which
limits
traction
for
USD. -
RBA’s
hawkish
stance
provides
stable
support
for
Aussie.
The
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
continued
its
positive
trend
against
the
USD
on
Wednesday,
mildly
rising
near
0.6750.
Despite
no
significant
pertinent
events
down
the
line
for
the
Australian
financial
scene
this
week,
the
pair
still
maintains
its
stronghold,
with
the
AUD
continuing
its
recent
gains.
On
the
US
side,
markets
await
clues
on
the
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
plans.
The
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
is
set
to
be
among
the
last
G10
nations’
central
banks
to
initiate
rate
cuts,
a
factor
that
boosts
the
AUD.
Updated
daily
market
movers:
AUD
holds
ground
after
Powell’s
words
-
Jerome
Powell
on
Wednesday
emphasized
the
need
to
pay
elevated
attention
to
the
labor
market,
citing
that
it
has
significantly
deteriorated. -
In
addition,
he
expressed
a
degree
of
confidence
regarding
the
downward
movement
of
inflation. -
He
stated
that
achieving
price
stability
without
hurting
employment
is
achievable
but
didn’t
provide
a
specific
inflation
or
unemployment
figure
as
a
benchmark
for
deciding
on
rate
cuts. -
US
CPI
figures,
coming
on
Thursday,
will
be
crucial.
The
headline
is
projected
to
decrease
slightly
to
3.1%
YoY,
while
the
core
is
anticipated
to
remain
steady
at
3.4%
YoY. -
On
the
RBA’s
side,
markets
bet
on
nearly
a
50%
chance
of
a
hike
in
September
or
November.
On
the
Fed’s
side,
investors
are
confident
in
an
80%
likelihood
of
a
cut
in
September.
Technical
analysis:
AUD/USD’s
gains
continue,
consolidation
expected
The
AUD/USD
continues
on
a
rising
trajectory,
resulting
in
the
pair
making
gains
on
Wednesday.
The
outlook
remains
positive
with
indicators
including
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
holding
strong
in
deep
positive
territory.
Following
the
pair’s
performance
hitting
its
highest
since
January,
the
trend
hints
at
an
optimistic
outlook.
However,
traders
appear
to
be
keeping
an
eye
on
consolidating
these
gains,
which
is
limiting
the
upside.
Support
levels
to
monitor
are
at
0.6670,
0.6650
and
0.6630
in
case
of
a
correction.
RBA
FAQs
The
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
sets
interest
rates
and
manages
monetary
policy
for
Australia.
Decisions
are
made
by
a
board
of
governors
at
11
meetings
a
year
and
ad
hoc
emergency
meetings
as
required.
The
RBA’s
primary
mandate
is
to
maintain
price
stability,
which
means
an
inflation
rate
of
2-3%,
but
also
“..to
contribute
to
the
stability
of
the
currency,
full
employment,
and
the
economic
prosperity
and
welfare
of
the
Australian
people.”
Its
main
tool
for
achieving
this
is
by
raising
or
lowering
interest
rates.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
will
strengthen
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
and
vice
versa.
Other
RBA
tools
include
quantitative
easing
and
tightening.
While
inflation
had
always
traditionally
been
thought
of
as
a
negative
factor
for
currencies
since
it
lowers
the
value
of
money
in
general,
the
opposite
has
actually
been
the
case
in
modern
times
with
the
relaxation
of
cross-border
capital
controls.
Moderately
higher
inflation
now
tends
to
lead
central
banks
to
put
up
their
interest
rates,
which
in
turn
has
the
effect
of
attracting
more
capital
inflows
from
global
investors
seeking
a
lucrative
place
to
keep
their
money.
This
increases
demand
for
the
local
currency,
which
in
the
case
of
Australia
is
the
Aussie
Dollar.
Macroeconomic
data
gauges
the
health
of
an
economy
and
can
have
an
impact
on
the
value
of
its
currency.
Investors
prefer
to
invest
their
capital
in
economies
that
are
safe
and
growing
rather
than
precarious
and
shrinking.
Greater
capital
inflows
increase
the
aggregate
demand
and
value
of
the
domestic
currency.
Classic
indicators,
such
as
GDP,
Manufacturing
and
Services
PMIs,
employment,
and
consumer
sentiment
surveys
can
influence
AUD.
A
strong
economy
may
encourage
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
to
put
up
interest
rates,
also
supporting
AUD.
Quantitative
Easing
(QE)
is
a
tool
used
in
extreme
situations
when
lowering
interest
rates
is
not
enough
to
restore
the
flow
of
credit
in
the
economy.
QE
is
the
process
by
which
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
prints
Australian
Dollars
(AUD)
for
the
purpose
of
buying
assets
–
usually
government
or
corporate
bonds
–
from
financial
institutions,
thereby
providing
them
with
much-needed
liquidity.
QE
usually
results
in
a
weaker
AUD.
Quantitative
tightening
(QT)
is
the
reverse
of
QE.
It
is
undertaken
after
QE
when
an
economic
recovery
is
underway
and
inflation
starts
rising.
Whilst
in
QE
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
purchases
government
and
corporate
bonds
from
financial
institutions
to
provide
them
with
liquidity,
in
QT
the
RBA
stops
buying
more
assets,
and
stops
reinvesting
the
principal
maturing
on
the
bonds
it
already
holds.
It
would
be
positive
(or
bullish)
for
the
Australian
Dollar.
This is how investors are preparing ahead of Ethereum ETF launch
401619 July 11, 2024 03:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Ethereum
ETFs
close
to
finish
line,
says
Bitwise
executive. -
Ethereum
investors
are
buying
the
dip
despite
FUD
from
potential
Golem
selling
spree. -
Ethereum
bearish
pressure
has
slowed,
but
key
resistance
could
prove
critical
ahead
of
ETH
ETF
launch.
Ethereum
is
up
2.3%
on
Wednesday
as
investors
continue
buying
the
dip
in
hopes
of
a
rally
following
the
launch
of
spot
ETH
ETFs.
However,
other
key
metrics
like
break-even
prices
and
Golem
sales
provide
a
deeper
understanding
of
what
to
expect
as
the
launch
draws
nearer.
Daily
digest
market
movers:
Ethereum
accumulation,
Golem
sales
With
the
potential
launch
of
spot
ETH
ETFs
drawing
closer
amid
the
wider
market
stagnancy,
investors
are
readjusting
their
portfolios.
Bitwise
chief
compliance
officer
Katherine
Dowling
confirmed
that
the
launch
is
“close
to
the
finish
line.”
“We’re
seeing
in
the
S-1
amendments
that
there
are
fewer
and
fewer
issues
that
are
being
vetted
back
and
forth
between
issuers
and
the
SEC,”
said
Dowling
in
a
Bloomberg
interview.
“So
that
points
all
signs
in
the
direction
that
we
are
close.
We’re
close
to
the
finish
line
on
the
launch,”
she
added.
The
Securities
&
Exchange
Commission
(SEC)
approved
spot
ETH
ETF
issuers’
19b-4
filings
in
May,
but
the
agency
needs
to
greenlight
their
S-1s
before
the
products
can
begin
trading.
Ethereum’s
recent
descent
saw
more
investors
accumulating
the
altcoin,
as
revealed
in
CryptoQuant’s
data.
These
investors
are
considering
the
dip
as
an
opportunity
to
purchase
ETH
at
a
discount
before
ETH
ETFs
launch
in
tandem.
The
lower
ETH
goes,
the
more
investors
buy.
ETH
New
Accumulating
Adresses
Balance
Santiment
data
shows
that
some
of
these
purchases
have
been
flowing
into
staking
platforms.
The
Ethereum
2.0
staking
contract
now
holds
47.36
million
ETH
or
about
34%
of
ETH’s
entire
supply.
Notably,
the
contract’s
holdings
have
more
than
tripled
from
just
under
11%
of
ETH’s
supply
it
held
in
2022.
ETH2
Beacon
Deposit
Contract
Meanwhile,
Golem,
which
raised
820,000
ETH
through
an
ICO
in
2016,
has
been
on
a
potential
selling
spree.
After
transferring
40,000
ETH
to
address
“0x159a”,
the
address
deposited
3,000
ETH
worth
$9.3
million
to
Binance,
Bitfinex
and
Coinbase
in
the
past
few
hours,
according
to
Lookonchain.
Golem
has
deposited
about
32,000
ETH
to
exchanges
in
the
past
six
days.
ETH
technical
analysis:
Ethereum
faces
a
key
resistance
at
$3,200
Ethereum
is
trading
around
$3,130
on
Wednesday,
up
2.3%
on
the
day.
ETH’s
total
liquidations
in
the
past
24
hours
are
at
$33.58
million,
with
long
and
short
liquidations
accounting
for
$23.18
million
and
$10.40
million,
respectively,
according
to
data
from
Coinglass.
ETH’s
long
and
short
ratio
shows
traders
are
slowly
reducing
their
bearish
sentiment
as
the
ratio
has
increased
to
0.989.
However,
Ethereum’s
Fear
and
Greed
Index
is
at
number
30,
indicating
fear
persists
in
the
market
despite
increasing
accumulation
from
whale
addresses.
Into
The
Block’s
data
shows
that
more
than
5.6
million
addresses
broke
even
after
ETH
reached
$3,000,
a
potential
sell
sign
for
these
addresses.
It
could
be
that
whales
bullish
on
the
ETH
ETF
approval
accumulated
selling
pressure
from
retail
traders
who
potentially
sold
off
their
tokens
after
ETH
reclaimed
the
$3,000
psychological
level.
As
ETH’s
price
slowly
tilts
toward
the
upside,
it
may
face
a
resistance
at
the
$3,200
level.
According
to
IntoTheBlock,
approximately
2
million
addresses
that
purchased
ETH
around
this
level
could
sell
if
they
break
even.
However,
a
price
catalyst
like
the
ETH
ETF
going
live
can
prevent
such
a
move.
ETH/USDT
4-hour
chart
On
the
downside,
the
$2,800
to
$2,852
level
remains
a
key
support
if
the
bearish
pressure
increases.In
the
short
term,
ETH
could
bounce
off
the
$3,064
level,
where
$3.32
million
ETH
longs
risk
liquidation.
Ethereum
FAQs
Ethereum
is
a
decentralized
open-source
blockchain
with
smart
contracts
functionality.
Serving
as
the
basal
network
for
the
Ether
(ETH)
cryptocurrency,
it
is
the
second
largest
crypto
and
largest
altcoin
by
market
capitalization.
The
Ethereum
network
is
tailored
for
scalability,
programmability,
security,
and
decentralization,
attributes
that
make
it
popular
among
developers.
Ethereum
uses
decentralized
blockchain
technology,
where
developers
can
build
and
deploy
applications
that
are
independent
of
the
central
authority.
To
make
this
easier,
the
network
has
a
programming
language
in
place,
which
helps
users
create
self-executing
smart
contracts.
A
smart
contract
is
basically
a
code
that
can
be
verified
and
allows
inter-user
transactions.
Staking
is
a
process
where
investors
grow
their
portfolios
by
locking
their
assets
for
a
specified
duration
instead
of
selling
them.
It
is
used
by
most
blockchains,
especially
the
ones
that
employ
Proof-of-Stake
(PoS)
mechanism,
with
users
earning
rewards
as
an
incentive
for
committing
their
tokens.
For
most
long-term
cryptocurrency
holders,
staking
is
a
strategy
to
make
passive
income
from
your
assets,
putting
them
to
work
in
exchange
for
reward
generation.
Ethereum
transitioned
from
a
Proof-of-Work
(PoW)
to
a
Proof-of-Stake
(PoS)
mechanism
in
an
event
christened
“The
Merge.”
The
transformation
came
as
the
network
wanted
to
achieve
more
security,
cut
down
on
energy
consumption
by
99.95%,
and
execute
new
scaling
solutions
with
a
possible
threshold
of
100,000
transactions
per
second.
With
PoS,
there
are
less
entry
barriers
for
miners
considering
the
reduced
energy
demands.
Full Article
NBC’s Lester Holt will interview Biden on Monday
401618 July 11, 2024 03:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Here
is
what
needs
to
happen:
Lester
Holt
or
someone
else
needs
to
come
at
Biden
hard
and
fast
and
let
the
chips
fall
where
they
may.
I
don’t
think
anyone
is
doing
any
favours
with
softballs
here.
This
shouldn’t
be
a
policy
interview
because
the
only
topic
that
anyone
cares
about
his
his
mental
acuity.
I
think
the
damage
has
already
been
done
and
the
race
is
over
if
he
continues,
though
House
Democrats
could
conceivably
still
win
(betting
odds
there
are
50/50).
But
I
don’t
see
how
almost-anyone
wouldn’t
improve
their
odds.
Mexican Peso rises on hot inflation data, Banxico turns vigilant
401616 July 11, 2024 03:14 FXStreet Market News
-
Mexican
Peso
strengthens
for
seventh
session
with
USD/MXN
down
0.44%,
sparked
by
high
inflation. -
Banxico
Deputy
Governor
Borja
adopts
neutral
stance,
despite
emphasizing
that
policy
is
restrictive. -
Banxico’s
minutes
to
address
disinflation
forces,
growth
disappointments,
and
potential
downside
risks
in
upcoming
meeting.
The
Mexican
Peso
extended
its
rally
for
the
seventh
consecutive
session
on
Wednesday
after
inflation
got
close
to
5%,
which
might
deter
the
Bank
of
Mexico
(Banxico)
from
easing
policy
at
the
upcoming
monetary
policy
meeting
in
August.
Therefore,
the
USD/MXN
continued
to
edge
lower
and
traded
at
17.83,
a
loss
of
0.44%.
Mexico’s
inflation,
as
measured
by
the
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI),
was
higher
than
expected
in
June,
hitting
4.98%,
above
estimates
of
4.84%.
This
triggered
a
reaction
amongst
Banxico’s
policymakers
with
Deputy
Governor
Jonathan
Heath
writing
on
X
that
June’s
inflation
data
was
“very
worrying.”
Recently,
Deputy
Governor
Galia
Borja
said,
“It’s
prudent
not
to
make
hasty
decisions”
regarding
monetary
policy.
She’s
adopted
a
more
neutral
stance,
adding
that
officials
must
be
patient,
though
she
added
that
the
current
policy
is
“undoubtedly
restrictive.”
On
Thursday,
Banxico
will
reveal
its
latest
monetary
policy
minutes.
Analysts
at
JP
Morgan
wrote,
“We
expect
the
minutes
to
elaborate
on
both
disinflation
forces
and
some
of
the
upside
risks
embedded
in
the
ongoing
MXN
re-adjustment,
and
the
forces
behind
growth
disappointments.”
They
added
that
Banxico’s
board
is
expected
to
acknowledge
the
“underwhelming
growth
dynamics
and
downgraded
its
growth
outlook—now
openly
underscoring
downside
risks
to
economic
activity.”
Across
the
border,
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell
appeared
at
the
US
House
of
Representatives
and
repeated
some
of
Tuesday’s
words
that
the
disinflation
process
is
evolving
and
that
the
risks
of
achieving
the
dual
mandate
have
become
more
balanced.
He
added
that
Fed
officials
needed
good
inflation
data
to
lower
borrowing
costs
and
that
neutral
rates
must
have
moved
up
“at
least
in
the
short
term.”
Daily
digest
market
movers:
Mexican
Peso
rockets
due
to
high
inflation
-
According
to
the
National
Statistics
Agency
(INEGI),
Mexico’s
June
inflation
figures
were
higher
than
expected
due
to
a
rise
in
food
prices
when
most
economists
expect
Banxico
to
resume
lowering
interest
rates. -
Mexico’s
CPI
rose
from
4.69%
YoY
to
4.98%
in
June,
while
core
CPI
dipped
from
4.21%
to
4.13%
annually,
exceeding
the
estimated
4.15%. -
Despite
the
rise
in
inflation,
Capital
Economics
analysts
estimate
that
the
Mexican
central
bank
could
cut
rates
at
the
August
meeting. -
On
Monday,
the
New
York
Federal
Reserve
revealed
that
consumer
inflation
expectations
were
lowered
from
3.2%
to
3%
for
one
year. -
US
CPI
is
foreseen
dropping
from
3.3%
to
3.1%
in
the
12
months
to
June,
while
underlying
inflation
is
projected
to
stay
firm
at
3.4%
YoY. -
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
value
of
a
basket
of
six
currencies
against
the
US
Dollar,
advances
some
0.16%
and
is
up
at
105.17. -
According
to
the
CME
FedWatch
Tool
data,
the
odds
for
a
September
cut
are
72%,
up
from
70%
on
Tuesday.
Technical
analysis:
Mexican
Peso
appreciates
sharply
as
USD/MXN
falls
below
17.85
The
USD/MXN
continued
to
extend
its
losses
past
June
24,
the
latest
cycle
low
of
17.87,
which
could
pave
the
way
for
a
deeper
correction.
Momentum
has
abruptly
shifted
in
bears’
favor,
an
indication
that
sellers
will
drive
the
exotic
pair
price
action
lower.
If
the
downtrend
continued,
the
next
support
would
be
the
confluence
of
the
December
5
high
and
the
50-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
at
around
17.56/57,
followed
by
the
200-day
SMA
at
17.26.
The
next
floor
level
would
be
the
100-day
SMA
at
17.19.
For
a
bullish
resumption,
USD/MXN
must
surpass
18.10,
followed
by
a
rally
above
the
June
28
high
of
18.59,
allowing
buyers
to
challenge
the
YTD
high
of
18.99.
Conversely,
sellers
will
need
to
push
the
pair
below
18.00,
which
could
extend
the
decline
toward
the
December
5
high-turned-support
at
17.56,
followed
by
the
50-day
SMA
at
17.37.
Banxico
FAQs
The
Bank
of
Mexico,
also
known
as
Banxico,
is
the
country’s
central
bank.
Its
mission
is
to
preserve
the
value
of
Mexico’s
currency,
the
Mexican
Peso
(MXN),
and
to
set
the
monetary
policy.
To
this
end,
its
main
objective
is
to
maintain
low
and
stable
inflation
within
target
levels
–
at
or
close
to
its
target
of
3%,
the
midpoint
in
a
tolerance
band
of
between
2%
and
4%.
The
main
tool
of
the
Banxico
to
guide
monetary
policy
is
by
setting
interest
rates.
When
inflation
is
above
target,
the
bank
will
attempt
to
tame
it
by
raising
rates,
making
it
more
expensive
for
households
and
businesses
to
borrow
money
and
thus
cooling
the
economy.
Higher
interest
rates
are
generally
positive
for
the
Mexican
Peso
(MXN)
as
they
lead
to
higher
yields,
making
the
country
a
more
attractive
place
for
investors.
On
the
contrary,
lower
interest
rates
tend
to
weaken
MXN.
The
rate
differential
with
the
USD,
or
how
the
Banxico
is
expected
to
set
interest
rates
compared
with
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
is
a
key
factor.
Banxico
meets
eight
times
a
year,
and
its
monetary
policy
is
greatly
influenced
by
decisions
of
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed).
Therefore,
the
central
bank’s
decision-making
committee
usually
gathers
a
week
after
the
Fed.
In
doing
so,
Banxico
reacts
and
sometimes
anticipates
monetary
policy
measures
set
by
the
Federal
Reserve.
For
example,
after
the
Covid-19
pandemic,
before
the
Fed
raised
rates,
Banxico
did
it
first
in
an
attempt
to
diminish
the
chances
of
a
substantial
depreciation
of
the
Mexican
Peso
(MXN)
and
to
prevent
capital
outflows
that
could
destabilize
the
country.
Bitcoin, Ethereum are digital commodities, says CFTC Chair
401615 July 11, 2024 03:14 FXStreet Market News
-
CFTC
Chair
Rostin
Behnam
says
that
an
Illinois
court
confirmed
that
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
are
digital
commodities. -
Behnam
said
that
the
cryptocurrencies
are
commodities
under
the
Commodity
Exchange
Act. -
Bitcoin,
Ethereum
have
sustained
above
key
support
levels,
BTC
trades
above
$57,000
and
Ether
above
$3,000
on
Wednesday.
Commodity
Futures
Trading
Commission
(CFTC)
Chair
Rostin
Behnam
spoke
at
the
Senate
Committee
hearing,
stating
that
70
to
80%
of
cryptocurrencies
are
not
securities.
Behnam
spoke
about
the
crypto
asset
class
amidst
the
ongoing
debate
in
the
crypto
community
and
the
lawsuits
brought
by
the
Securities
&
Exchange
Commission
(SEC)
and
faced
by
crypto
firms
and
exchange
platforms.
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
are
not
securities
Whether
cryptocurrencies
like
Bitcoin,
Ethereum
and
several
other
altcoins
are
securities
has
been
debatable
for
several
years.
The
SEC
lawsuits
against
exchange
platforms
like
Coinbase
for
unregistered
securities
sales
and
against
Ripple
for
the
sale
of
unregistered
securities
(XRP
token)
have
intensified
the
debate
among
market
participants.
The
CFTC
Chair
put
the
debate
to
rest
with
his
statements
at
a
Senate
Committee
hearing,
early
on
Wednesday.
Behnam
said
that
70%
to
80%
of
cryptocurrencies
are
non-securities.
Behnam
addressed
the
asset
class
and
his
statements
brought
clarity
to
the
issue.
During
the
hearing,
Behnam
said
that
both
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
are
commodities,
and
referenced
a
summary
judgment
from
a
District
Court
Ruling
in
Illinois.
The
CFTC
Chair
said
that
the
judgment
“reaffirmed
that
both
Bitcoin
and
Ether
are
commodities
under
the
Commodities
Exchange
Act.”
Behnam
addressed
the
concern
over
whether
the
SEC
or
CFTC
should
regulate
crypto.
When
Senator
Roger
Marshall
talked
about
the
turf
war
between
the
SEC
and
the
CFTC
over
figuring
out
which
digital
assets
are
securities
and
which
are
commodities,
he
asked,
“Wouldn’t
it
be
simpler
if
we
put
this
whole
thing
under
the
CFTC’s
jurisdiction?”
To
which
the
CFTC
Chair
responded,
“I
speak
for
myself,
but
I’d
be
happy
to
do
that.
I
think
we
have
the
expertise
and
the
capacity.”
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
have
sustained
above
key
support
levels
on
Wednesday.
BTC
trades
at
$57,560
and
Ether
above
$3,000
at
the
time
of
writing.
Full Article
Biden faces fresh pressure to drop out of the race
401614 July 11, 2024 02:40 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Biden
pushed
back
hard
against
pressure
to
drop
off
the
Presidential
ticket
at
the
start
of
the
week
but
his
comments
at
the
NATO
Summit
didn’t
exactly
put
to
rest
questions
about
his
health.
Now
there
is
fresh
pressure
and
his
betting
odds
have
against
slipped,
with
PredictIt
pegging
him
at
less
than
50/50
to
win
the
nomination.
The
catalysts
appear
to
be
from
two
sources:
1)
Nancy
Pelosi
The
former
Speaker
of
the
House
didn’t
exactly
give
an
endorsement
of
Biden
today.
“It’s
up
to
the
president
to
decide
if
he
is
going
to
run.
We’re
all
encouraging
him
to
make
that
decision
because
time
is
running
short,”
Pelosi
said
in
an
interview
on
MSNBC.
Asked
if
she
wants
him
to
run,
Pelosi
said,
“I
want
him
to
do
whatever
he
decides
to
do,
and
that’s
—
that’s
the
way
it
is.
Whatever
he
decides,
we
go
with.”
Those
are
carefully-chosen
comments
that
likely
highlight
unease
(or
something
worse)
under
the
surface.
Pelosi
has
played
the
game
for
a
long
time
and
may
know
which
way
the
wind
is
blowing.
2)
George
Clooney
The
Hollywood
start
and
long-time
Democratic
fundraiser
was
less
diplomatic.
He
published
an
op-ed
in
the
New
York
Times
and
said:
It’s
devastating
to
say
it,
but
the
Joe
Biden
I
was
with
three
weeks
ago
at
the
fund-raiser
was
not
the
Joe
“big
F-ing
deal”
Biden
of
2010.
He
wasn’t
even
the
Joe
Biden
of
2020.
He
was
the
same
man
we
all
witnessed
at
the
debate.
The
rest
of
it
isn’t
pretty.
If
Biden
has
lost
Hollywood,
does
he
really
have
a
chance?
“We
are
not
going
to
win
in
November
with
this
president,”
Clooney
writes.
It’s
tough
to
say
what’s
behind
the
latest
market
moves
but
a
Republican
sweep
would
certainly
be
good
for
corporate
tax
cuts.
But
if
Biden
were
to
drop
out,
a
more-viable
candidate
could
be
found.
Or
maybe
there
would
be
a
civil
war
that
fractures
Democrats
even
further?
Predicting
politics
has
never
been
easy
and
that’s
certainly
the
case
at
the
moment.
Some
are
suggesting
the
best
time
for
Biden
to
drop
out
would
be
just
before
the
Republican
National
Convention
July
15-18
in
order
to
steal
the
headlines.
As
for
his
schedule,
the
President
hosts
a
bilateral
meeting
with
Prime
Minister
Keir
Starmer
of
the
United
Kingdom
today
at
5:30
pm
and
will
host
a
NATO
dinner
later.
EUR/USD Forecast: Near-term consolidation remains in the pipeline
401612 July 11, 2024 02:39 FXStreet Market News
-
EUR/USD
traded
with
a
mild
bid
bias
around
1.0820. -
The
Greenback
navigated
a
vacillating
session
ahead
of
the
US
CPI. -
There
was
no
news
from
Powell’s
second
testimony.
The
US
Dollar
(USD)
alternated
gains
with
losses
on
Wednesday,
prompting
the
USD
Index
(DXY)
to
end
the
session
barely
changed
from
the
previous
day’s
closing
levels.
This
irresolute
price
action
in
the
Greenback
motivated
EUR/USD
to
also
hover
around
the
1.0820
region,
up
marginally
for
the
day,
as
investors
digested
the
second
Congressional
testimony
by
Chair
Jerome
Powell
before
Congress.
While
Powell’s
message
largely
matched
his
previous
comments,
he
suggested
that
he
was
not
yet
ready
to
conclude
that
inflation
was
sustainably
decreasing
to
2%,
though
he
expressed
“some
confidence”
that
it
was
heading
in
that
direction.
Following
Powell’s
testimony,
the
macroeconomic
environment
remained
relatively
stable
on
both
sides
of
the
Atlantic.
That
is,
while
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
is
contemplating
further
rate
cuts
beyond
the
summer,
with
market
expectations
suggesting
two
additional
cuts
by
the
end
of
the
year,
there
is
ongoing
debate
among
investors
about
whether
the
Fed
will
implement
one
or
two
rate
cuts
this
year,
despite
the
Fed’s
current
projection
of
a
single
cut,
likely
in
December.
According
to
the
CME
Group’s
FedWatch
Tool,
there
is
approximately
a
74%
chance
of
interest
rate
cuts
in
September,
rising
to
nearly
96%
by
December.
The
ECB’s
rate
cut
in
June,
combined
with
the
Fed’s
decision
to
maintain
rates,
has
widened
the
policy
divergence
between
the
two
central
banks.
This
divergence
could
potentially
lead
to
further
weakening
of
EUR/USD
in
the
short
term.
However,
the
prospects
of
economic
recovery
in
the
Eurozone,
along
with
signs
of
cooling
in
some
key
US
economic
indicators,
may
mitigate
this
disparity
and
occasionally
support
the
pair
in
the
near
future.
Moving
forward,
market
participants
should
closely
follow
the
release
of
US
inflation
figures
tracked
by
the
CPI
on
Thursday,
as
those
readings
could
impact
on
the
timing
of
the
interest
rate
cut
by
the
Fed.
EUR/USD
daily
chart
EUR/USD
short-term
technical
outlook
EUR/USD
is
expected
to
meet
its
initial
up-barrier
at
the
July
peak
of
1.0845
(July
8),
followed
by
the
weekly
high
of
1.0852
(June
12)
and
the
June
top
of
1.0916
(June
4).
If
the
pair
breaks
above
this
level,
it
might
bring
the
March
peak
of
1.0981
(March
8)
back
into
focus,
followed
by
the
psychological
1.1000
mark.
If
bears
regain
the
upper
hand,
spot
may
approach
the
200-day
SMA
at
1.0800
before
falling
to
a
low
of
1.0666
on
June
26.
From
here,
the
May
low
of
1.0649
(May
1)
leads
to
the
2024
bottom
of
1.0601
(April
16).
Looking
at
the
big
picture,
it
appears
that
additional
gains
are
on
the
way
if
the
important
200-day
SMA
is
consistently
surpassed.
So
far,
the
4-hour
chart
shows
some
gradual
recovery.
The
200-SMA
at
1.0783
provides
the
initial
contention,
followed
by
the
55-SMA
at
1.0781
and
finally
1.0709.
On
the
upside,
the
initial
obstacle
is
at
1.0845,
followed
by
1.0852
and
1.0902.
The
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
has
decreased
to
about
53.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rises on renewed rate cut hopes
401609 July 11, 2024 02:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Dow
Jones
climbed
to
39,500.00
as
markets
read
between
the
lines. -
Fed
Chair
Powell
wraps
up
two-day
Congressional
testimony. -
Markets
look
ahead
to
key
US
inflation
data
later
in
the
week.
The
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average
(DJIA)
climbed
on
Wednesday,
testing
above
39,500.00
as
equity
markets
stepped
back
into
a
risk-on
stance.
Rate
cut
hopes
continue
to
underpin
broader
market
flows,
and
investors
have
recovered
their
footing
and
brushed
off
an
overall
cautious
tone
from
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chairman
Jerome
Powell.
Fed
Chair
Powell
wrapped
up
the
second
of
a
two-day
appearance
before
US
Congressional
committees
on
Wednesday,
with
the
head
of
the
US
central
bank
sticking
close
to
a
familiar
script
across
both
days.
While
giving
a
nod
of
the
head
to
overall
progress
on
inflation,
and
admitting
that
the
Fed
isn’t
going
to
wait
until
inflation
hits
the
2%
annual
target,
Fed
Chair
Powell
remains
firmly
planted
in
a
cautious
stance.
While
the
Fed
won’t
be
waiting
for
inflation
to
hit
the
overall
target,
Fed
officials
still
want
further
evidence
that
inflation
will
eventually
hit
2%
before
delivering
rate
cuts.
According
to
the
CME’s
FedWatch
Tool,
rate
markets
still
have
hopes
firmly
pinned
on
a
September
rate
cut,
with
interest
rate
traders
pricing
in
75%
odds
of
at
least
a
quarter-point
trim
to
the
fed
funds
rate
on
September
18.
With
the
Fed
entrenched
in
a
wait
for
further
signs
of
easing
inflation,
markets
will
be
firmly
focused
on
US
inflation
figures
due
this
week.
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
is
slated
for
Thursday,
with
US
Producer
Price
Index
(PPI)
wholesale
inflation
due
on
Friday.
Rate-cut-hungry
investors
may
be
set
up
for
disappointment
with
June’s
annualized
core
CPI
expected
to
hold
steady
at
3.4%,
and
Friday’s
YoY
core
PPI
expected
to
actually
tick
higher
to
2.5%
from
the
previous
2.3%.
Dow
Jones
news
The
Dow
Jones
firmly
shook
off
cautious
tones
on
Wednesday,
rallying
to
a
daily
high
of
39,526.17
and
climbing
around
200
points.
Over
two-thirds
of
the
index
is
in
the
green
for
the
day,
with
Honeywell
International
Inc.
(HON)
leading
the
charge,
climbing
1.4%
on
Wednesday
but
closely
followed
by
megacap
companies
including
Amgen
Inc.
(AMGN),
Home
Depot
Inc.
(HD),
Apple
Inc.
(AAPL),
and
McDonald’s
Corp.
(MCD).
On
the
low
side,
Visa
Inc.
(V)
fell
to
the
bottom
of
the
board,
backsliding
-1.8%
to
$260.61
per
share.
Dow
Jones
technical
outlook
The
Dow
Jones
has
given
a
choppy
two-day
performance,
climbing
a
full
percentage
point
bottom-to-top
from
Tuesday’s
lows
near
39,130.00.
Bullish
momentum
is
poised
for
a
breakout
of
recent
consolidation
as
price
action
gets
squeezed
between
the
50-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
near
39,000.00
and
a
supply
zone
priced
in
near
the
40,000.00
major
price
handle.
Dow
Jones
five
minute
chart
Dow
Jones
daily
chart
Dow
Jones
FAQs
The
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average,
one
of
the
oldest
stock
market
indices
in
the
world,
is
compiled
of
the
30
most
traded
stocks
in
the
US.
The
index
is
price-weighted
rather
than
weighted
by
capitalization.
It
is
calculated
by
summing
the
prices
of
the
constituent
stocks
and
dividing
them
by
a
factor,
currently
0.152.
The
index
was
founded
by
Charles
Dow,
who
also
founded
the
Wall
Street
Journal.
In
later
years
it
has
been
criticized
for
not
being
broadly
representative
enough
because
it
only
tracks
30
conglomerates,
unlike
broader
indices
such
as
the
S&P
500.
Many
different
factors
drive
the
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average
(DJIA).
The
aggregate
performance
of
the
component
companies
revealed
in
quarterly
company
earnings
reports
is
the
main
one.
US
and
global
macroeconomic
data
also
contributes
as
it
impacts
on
investor
sentiment.
The
level
of
interest
rates,
set
by
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed),
also
influences
the
DJIA
as
it
affects
the
cost
of
credit,
on
which
many
corporations
are
heavily
reliant.
Therefore,
inflation
can
be
a
major
driver
as
well
as
other
metrics
which
impact
the
Fed
decisions.
Dow
Theory
is
a
method
for
identifying
the
primary
trend
of
the
stock
market
developed
by
Charles
Dow.
A
key
step
is
to
compare
the
direction
of
the
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average
(DJIA)
and
the
Dow
Jones
Transportation
Average
(DJTA)
and
only
follow
trends
where
both
are
moving
in
the
same
direction.
Volume
is
a
confirmatory
criteria.
The
theory
uses
elements
of
peak
and
trough
analysis.
Dow’s
theory
posits
three
trend
phases:
accumulation,
when
smart
money
starts
buying
or
selling;
public
participation,
when
the
wider
public
joins
in;
and
distribution,
when
the
smart
money
exits.
There
are
a
number
of
ways
to
trade
the
DJIA.
One
is
to
use
ETFs
which
allow
investors
to
trade
the
DJIA
as
a
single
security,
rather
than
having
to
buy
shares
in
all
30
constituent
companies.
A
leading
example
is
the
SPDR
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average
ETF
(DIA).
DJIA
futures
contracts
enable
traders
to
speculate
on
the
future
value
of
the
index
and
Options
provide
the
right,
but
not
the
obligation,
to
buy
or
sell
the
index
at
a
predetermined
price
in
the
future.
Mutual
funds
enable
investors
to
buy
a
share
of
a
diversified
portfolio
of
DJIA
stocks
thus
providing
exposure
to
the
overall
index.
Gold gives back some gains after test of $2400
401608 July 11, 2024 02:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Gold
rose
as
high
as
$2386
earlier
today
but
has
since
sagged
back
to
$2372.
gold
10
mins
There
is
something
of
a
‘buy
everything’
mode
unfolding
in
stocks
at
the
moment
but
the
optimism
hasn’t
spread
to
gold.
It
trade
above
$2400
in
April
and
May
but
has
struggled
to
get
back
above.
Last
week
it
came
close
before
a
sharp
drop
lower
on
Monday,
in
part
due
to
Chinese
data
showing
the
PBoC
wasn’t
buying.
However
it
impressively
steadied
today
and
took
another
run
before
the
latest
round
of
selling.
When
I
zoom
out,
there
is
clearly
a
period
of
consolidation
unfolding
following
and
impressive
run
in
March/April.
That’s
generally
promising,
though
the
trade
is
to
go-with
a
break
of
$2450
to
the
upside
or
$2275
to
the
downside.
Tomorrow’s
US
CPI
report
may
go
some
way
towards
resolving
that.
A
hot
CPI
report
should
weigh
on
gold
while
a
sign
of
lower
inflation
would
mean
lower
rates
and
should
boost
gold.
US Dollar turns down as markets don’t get fresh clues from Powell
401607 July 11, 2024 02:15 FXStreet Market News
-
US
Dollar
slips
slightly
under
impact
of
Jerome
Powell’s
fresh
words. -
Investors
keenly
await
June’s
CPI
data
release
on
Thursday
for
clear
guidance. -
If
CPI
comes
in
soft
on
Thursday,
USD
is
poised
for
further
downside.
On
Thursday,
Despite
Powell’s
cautious
stance
at
his
visit
to
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee,
the
US
Dollar
(measured
by
the
DXY
index)
saw
minor
downturns
and
fell
to
105.00.
Powell’s
reluctance
toward
immediate
rate
cuts
and
his
hints
at
an
ongoing
assessment
of
data-driven
indicators
have
kept
the
markets
on
edge.
Signs
of
disinflation
in
the
US
economic
outlook
have
emerged,
and
the
market
confidence
in
the
September
rate
cut
remains
strong.
However,
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
officials
including
Chair
Jerome
Powell
continue
to
tread
carefully,
underlining
their
inclination
toward
data-dependent
decisions
rather
than
hastened
action
in
implementing
rate
cuts.
Daily
digest
market
movers:
DXY
down
as
markets
continue
assessing
Powell’s
sentiment
-
Highlight
of
Wednesday
were
the
words
of
Fed
ChairPowell
to
the
House
Financial
Services
Committee. -
However,
his
testimony
before
the
House
did
not
provide
any
significant
or
fresh
influences. -
Powell
expressed
the
need
to
be
watchful
over
the
labor
market,
noting
visible
softening
in
the
sector. -
He
suggested
that
inflation
might
be
moving
toward
lower
levels
but
also
mentioned
his
cautious
optimism
about
it
sustaining
the
2%
target.
He
also
mentioned
that
he
doesn’t
hold
a
specific
inflation
number
pertaining
to
decisions
on
future
cuts. -
Expectations
from
Thursday’s
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
continue
to
be
significant.
Projections
depict
the
headline
sinking
two
tenths
to
3.1%
YoY,
while
core
inflation
is
expected
to
stay
steady
at
3.4%
YoY. -
Market
sentiment
indicates
less
than
10%
chance
of
July
rate
cut,
while
betting
odds
for
a
September
cut
hover
around
80%,
according
to
the
CME
FedWatch
Tool.
DXY
technical
outlook:
Index
sees
some
decline,
DXY
above
100-day
SMA
is
a
good
sign
From
a
technical
viewpoint,
DXY
seems
to
have
slipped
into
a
negative
terrain,
indicated
by
both
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
showing
negative
signs.
Nevertheless,
despite
the
minor
setback
on
Wednesday,
the
DXY
managed
to
stay
above
its
100-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA),
cushioning
the
impact
of
declines.
The
subsequent
support
levels
at
104.50
and
104.30
also
continue
to
be
staunch
barriers
against
further
drops.
On
the
flip
side,
to
regain
momentum
buyers
must
recover
the
105.50
level
to
retest
the
106.00
threshold.
Inflation
FAQs
Inflation
measures
the
rise
in
the
price
of
a
representative
basket
of
goods
and
services.
Headline
inflation
is
usually
expressed
as
a
percentage
change
on
a
month-on-month
(MoM)
and
year-on-year
(YoY)
basis.
Core
inflation
excludes
more
volatile
elements
such
as
food
and
fuel
which
can
fluctuate
because
of
geopolitical
and
seasonal
factors.
Core
inflation
is
the
figure
economists
focus
on
and
is
the
level
targeted
by
central
banks,
which
are
mandated
to
keep
inflation
at
a
manageable
level,
usually
around
2%.
The
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
measures
the
change
in
prices
of
a
basket
of
goods
and
services
over
a
period
of
time.
It
is
usually
expressed
as
a
percentage
change
on
a
month-on-month
(MoM)
and
year-on-year
(YoY)
basis.
Core
CPI
is
the
figure
targeted
by
central
banks
as
it
excludes
volatile
food
and
fuel
inputs.
When
Core
CPI
rises
above
2%
it
usually
results
in
higher
interest
rates
and
vice
versa
when
it
falls
below
2%.
Since
higher
interest
rates
are
positive
for
a
currency,
higher
inflation
usually
results
in
a
stronger
currency.
The
opposite
is
true
when
inflation
falls.
Although
it
may
seem
counter-intuitive,
high
inflation
in
a
country
pushes
up
the
value
of
its
currency
and
vice
versa
for
lower
inflation.
This
is
because
the
central
bank
will
normally
raise
interest
rates
to
combat
the
higher
inflation,
which
attract
more
global
capital
inflows
from
investors
looking
for
a
lucrative
place
to
park
their
money.
Formerly,
Gold
was
the
asset
investors
turned
to
in
times
of
high
inflation
because
it
preserved
its
value,
and
whilst
investors
will
often
still
buy
Gold
for
its
safe-haven
properties
in
times
of
extreme
market
turmoil,
this
is
not
the
case
most
of
the
time.
This
is
because
when
inflation
is
high,
central
banks
will
put
up
interest
rates
to
combat
it.
Higher
interest
rates
are
negative
for
Gold
because
they
increase
the
opportunity-cost
of
holding
Gold
vis-a-vis
an
interest-bearing
asset
or
placing
the
money
in
a
cash
deposit
account.
On
the
flipside,
lower
inflation
tends
to
be
positive
for
Gold
as
it
brings
interest
rates
down,
making
the
bright
metal
a
more
viable
investment
alternative.