Global Markets:

•  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.01%, Shanghai Composite down 0.38%, Hang Seng down 1.3% ASX down 0.46%
• Commodities : Gold at $2434.35 (0.37%), Silver at $28.18 (0.65%), Brent Oil at $78.63 (0.57%), WTI Oil at $75.49 (-0.48%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.182, UK 10-year yield at 4.053, Germany 10-year yield at 2.356

News & Data:

• (JPY) Unemployment Rate  2.5% vs 2.6% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets fell on Tuesday as the Bank of Japan commenced its two-day monetary policy meeting. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.1%, up from the current range of 0% to 0.1%, and to reduce its Japanese government bond purchases. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.7%, while the Topix was down 0.65%. Additionally, Japan’s unemployment rate for July was slightly lower than expected, at 2.5% compared to the forecasted 2.6%.

Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s Kospi declined by 0.9%, and the small-cap Kosdaq saw a smaller loss of 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.46%, with heavyweight miner Fortescue plummeting by as much as 9.23%. This drop followed a report from the Australian Financial Review that JPMorgan’s equity capital markets team was looking for buyers for 1.9 billion Australian dollars ($1.2 billion) of discounted Fortescue stock on behalf of an undisclosed institutional investor.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index decreased by 1.3%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped marginally, extending its losses after closing at its lowest level in nearly six months on Monday. These declines were part of a broader trend of market caution as investors awaited the outcomes of key central bank meetings and economic data releases.

In the United States, the major indexes ended mixed. The S&P 500 saw a marginal increase of 0.08% as Wall Street geared up for a busy week of corporate earnings and looked ahead to a significant policy announcement from the U.S. central bank. Economists do not expect the Federal Reserve to change the federal funds rate during this meeting, but traders are looking for hints of a possible rate cut in September. The Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.07%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped by 0.12%.

Upcoming Events: 

• 12:15 PM GMT – USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 12:30 PM GMT – CAD GDP m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – USD Employment Cost Index q/q
• 6:00 PM GMT – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 6:00 PM GMT – USD Federal Funds Rate

The post Tuesday 30th July 2024: Asia-Pacific Markets Decline Amid Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It’s still very much to do with the volatility swings since last week. This time, we’re moving in the other direction as the BOJ and Fed meetings are just around the corner. As mentioned earlier, the near-term bias in the pair is now more neutral. That frees up a bit of room to roam for price action. Right now, the 200-hour moving average (blue line) at 155.25 is a key near-term resistance point to watch.

That alongside the 155.00 mark in general, which also houses large option expiries on the day here. That could keep a lid on price action at least in European morning trade, barring any outsized moves in the broader risk mood and bonds.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 July 2024

What happened in the Asia session?

Demand for the greenback was strong, sending the dollar index (DXY) higher towards 104.70 – the immediate resistance barrier appears to be around 105.15 today. Meanwhile, selling pressures remain strong for crude with WTI oil looking to break under $76.50 per barrel.

What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?

Inflation in Germany has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.2% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate in Germany along with the broader Euro Area, the Euro could come under selling pressures today.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Job vacancies in the U.S. have moderated significantly lower since mid-2022 to highlight the slowdown in hiring practices by large corporations as well as small- and medium-sized businesses. The JOLTS job openings showed 8.14M vacancies in May and June’s estimate of 8.02M points to a further slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weakened slightly in June as persistent concerns on future expectations continue to weigh on consumer optimism. July’s estimate suggests that consumer confidence will edge lower once again. Should job vacancies dwindle more-than-anticipated while confidence takes another beating, this set of results could cap the recent gains in the DXY.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Job vacancies in the U.S. have moderated significantly lower since mid-2022 to highlight the slowdown in hiring practices by large corporations as well as small- and medium-sized businesses. The JOLTS job openings showed 8.14M vacancies in May and June’s estimate of 8.02M points to a further slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weakened slightly in June as persistent concerns on future expectations continue to weigh on consumer optimism. July’s estimate suggests that consumer confidence will edge lower once again. Should job vacancies dwindle more-than-anticipated while confidence takes another beating, this set of results could cap the recent gains in the DXY and potentially lift gold later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie stabilized around 0.6550 overnight after diving strongly over the last couple of weeks. This currency pair was trading around 0.6540 as Asian markets came online but overhead pressures remain – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6465

Resistance: 0.6580

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
• Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
• The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
• Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Significant weakness in the Kiwi has caused it to decline nearly 4.1% over the past three weeks but it stabilized around 0.5880 yesterday. This currency pair was trading around 0.5870 at the beginning of the Asia session and further downside can be expected for the Kiwi – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5800

Resistance: 0.5980

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
• The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
• The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
• Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
• Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen strengthened significantly over the last three weeks causing USD/JPY to dive over 4.1% but it found a floor around the 153-level yesterday. This currency pair was edging higher towards 154 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 152.00

Resistance: 154.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
  2. The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
• Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany CPI (Tentative)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Inflation in Germany has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.2% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate in Germany along with the broader Euro Area, the Euro could come under selling pressures today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
• Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
• While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
• The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
• Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Stronger demand for the dollar lifted USD/CHF overnight as it climbed above 0.8850. This currency pair was edging higher towards 0.8870 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8800

Resistance: 0.8920

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
• The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
• The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
• Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Stronger demand for the greenback pushed Cable as low as 1.2807 yesterday before retracing above 1.2850 by the end of the U.S. session. However, this currency pair reversed course and was retreating away from this level as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2776

Resistance: 1.2885

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
• Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
• Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
• UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
• UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
• The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
• Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Robust demand for the dollar lifted USD/CAD above 1.3850 overnight. Strong tailwinds remain in place for this currency pair as it continued climbing towards 1.3870 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3780

Resistance: 1.3880

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
• Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
• CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
• These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
• There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
• The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
• Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
• Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices tumbled nearly 2.1% after Israeli officials stated that they wanted to avoid a broader Middle East conflict – WTI oil fell under the $77-mark and was drifting lower towards $76.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online. Overhead pressures for this commodity continue to build further and even the higher-than-anticipated drawdown in U.S. oil inventories over the past four weeks have failed to put a floor under oil prices thus far.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 30 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

And this will just add to the mix of things amid key central bank meetings, month-end rebalancing, and also the US jobs report on Friday. Here are some of the bigger names on the calendar for the days ahead:

Tuesday, 30 July

– Microsoft (after hours)- AMD (after hours)- Pfizer (pre-market)- Rio Tinto (after hours)- BP (pre-market)- Starbucks (after hours)

Wednesday, 31 July

– Meta (after hours)- Mastercard (pre-market)- Boeing (pre-market)

Thursday, 1 August

– Apple (after hours)- Amazon (after hours)- Intel (after hours)- Shell (pre-market)

Friday, 2 August

– Berkshire Hathaway- Exxon Mobil (pre-market)- Chevron (pre-market)

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Reaffirms prudent monetary policy approach
• Chinese economy diverges with many risks in key areas
• Still faces insufficient domestic demand
• Sees increasing negative external impact
• To promote stable development of property market
• Need to keep stepping up macroeconomic policies
• Reiterates proactive fiscal policy
• Focus of economic policies to shift more to consumption

Again, all of these are very on the surface and lacking many details. But if anything else, it reaffirms that China will continue to put in concerted efforts to try and bolster the economy. In particular, they will be hoping to revive domestic demand conditions.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.3%

The French economy continues to hold up in Q2, keeping a more resilient tone. Here is the breakdown:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Once again, there’s not much in it as the pair continues to stay a little swingy awaiting the BOJ and Fed meetings tomorrow. But looking at price action, the near-term chart shows a push back above the 100-hour moving average (red line) for USD/JPY. That suggests the near-term bias to be more neutral currently.

The 155.00 level is still a big one to watch in limiting gains on the day, that especially with large expiries here.

But for now at least, the downside shove from last week is at least being controlled. That indicates a more pensive mood as traders will look to the BOJ and Fed decisions tomorrow for further clues on how to proceed.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar held a touch firmer to start the new week but is keeping little changed overall today. It’s still early of course but in Europe, the euro will be in focus amid a host of data releases to come. We’ll be getting Q2 preliminary GDP across the euro area alongside inflation data from Spain and Germany.

That will make for some interest, with traders pricing in ~68% odds of an ECB rate cut for September currently.

Besides that, broader markets will be eyeing major central bank decisions still to come later this week. The BOJ and Fed will feature tomorrow while the BOE will be on the agenda on Thursday.

Wall Street closed with a more tentative mood yesterday but US futures are slightly lower today. S&P 500 futures are down 0.3% as investors are keeping guarded ahead of key earnings releases during the week.

Later today, the big one to watch will be Microsoft after the market close. Other than that, AMD (after hours), PayPal (pre-market), Starbucks (after hours), BP (pre-market), and Rio Tinto (after hours) will also be reporting.

0530 GMT – France Q2 preliminary GDP figures0700 GMT – Spain Q2 preliminary GDP figures0700 GMT – Spain July preliminary CPI figures0700 GMT – Switzerland July KOF leading indicator index0800 GMT – Germany Q2 preliminary GDP figures0800 GMT – Italy Q2 preliminary GDP figures0900 GMT – Eurozone Q2 preliminary GDP figures0900 GMT – Eurozone July final consumer confidence0900 GMT – Eurozone July economic, industrial, services confidence1200 GMT – Germany July preliminary CPI figures

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

DXY (US Dollar Index):

Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.

Pivot: 104.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st support: 104.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 104.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 1.0833
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 1.0769
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 1.0870
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 168.30
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 165.39
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 170.27
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

EUR/GBP:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8428
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 0.8395
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 0.8457
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

GBP/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.

Pivot: 1.2858
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 1.2776
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 1.2937
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

GBP/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 199.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 195.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 201.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/CHF:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 0.8875
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 0.8800
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 0.8930
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/JPY:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.

Pivot: 154.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 152.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 157.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

USD/CAD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish

Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 1.3888
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a significant area where selling pressures could intensify.

1st support: 1.3838
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where price could find support.

1st resistance: 1.3940
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 100% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.

AUD/USD:

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.6577
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.

1st support: 0.6514
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.

1st resistance: 0.6623
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

NZD/USD

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 0.5913
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.

1st support: 0.5852
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.

1st resistance: 0.5949
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement. 

US30 (DJIA):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 40,240.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st Support: 39,820.25

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.

1st Resistance: 40,832.42

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

DE40 (DAX):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral

Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 18,244.50
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating an area where buying interest could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st Support: 18,149.30

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.

1st Resistance: 18,506.60

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.

US500 (S&P 500): 

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 5,404.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could stage a rebound.

1st support: 5,334.18

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.

1st resistance: 5,492.99

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a critical area that could halt further upward movement.

BTC/USD (Bitcoin):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 63,507.86

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st support: 59,262.44

Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 651.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st resistance: 69,742.96

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

ETH/USD (Ethereum):

Potential Direction: Bullish

Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral

Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.

Pivot: 3,122.34

Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.

1st Support: 2,878.98

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.

1st Resistance: 3,377.15

Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.

WTI/USD (Oil):

Potential Direction: Bearish

Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish

Price has made a bearish break through the pivot and could potentially fall towards the 1st support.

Pivot: 77.44

Supporting Reasons: Strong bearish momentum has caused price to break through the pivot and fall lower from here. The presence of a downward channel adds further significance to the bearish momentum.

1st Support: 75.63

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.

1st Resistance: 78.58

Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish

Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud

Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.

Pivot: 2491.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.

1st support: 2354.91
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.

1st resistance: 2424.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.

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The post Tuesday 30th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 July 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

With no major news overnight, the dollar index (DXY) remained elevated after hitting a high of 104.75 before settling around 104.60 by the end of this session. Over the same period, spot prices for gold retreated away from the threshold of $2,400/oz to slide towards $2,370/oz. Meanwhile, crude oil prices tumbled nearly 2.1% after Israeli officials stated that they wanted to avoid a broader Middle East conflict – WTI oil fell under the $77-mark and was drifting lower towards $76.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

Overhead pressures for crude oil continue to build further as WTI oil slid towards the $76.50-mark while the dollar is seeing a renewed bid causing the DXY to rise towards 104.70 for the second time in a matter of hours. Demand for the dollar appears to be growing but that could all change abruptly as the onslaught of U.S. employment data and the FOMC meeting hits the news wires over the next couple of days.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

Job vacancies in the U.S. have moderated significantly lower since mid-2022 to highlight the slowdown in hiring practices by large corporations as well as small- and medium-sized businesses. The JOLTS job openings showed 8.14M vacancies in May and June’s estimate of 8.02M points to a further slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weakened slightly in June as persistent concerns on future expectations continue to weigh on consumer optimism. July’s estimate suggests that consumer confidence will edge lower once again. Should job vacancies dwindle more-than-anticipated while confidence takes another beating, this set of results could cap the recent gains in the DXY.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

JOLTS Job Openings (2:00 pm GMT)

CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

Job vacancies in the U.S. have moderated significantly lower since mid-2022 to highlight the slowdown in hiring practices by large corporations as well as small- and medium-sized businesses. The JOLTS job openings showed 8.14M vacancies in May and June’s estimate of 8.02M points to a further slowdown.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index weakened slightly in June as persistent concerns on future expectations continue to weigh on consumer optimism. July’s estimate suggests that consumer confidence will edge lower once again. Should job vacancies dwindle more-than-anticipated while confidence takes another beating, this set of results could cap the recent gains in the DXY and potentially lift gold later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie stabilized around 0.6550 overnight after diving strongly over the last couple of weeks. This currency pair was trading around 0.6540 as Asian markets came online but overhead pressures remain – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6465

Resistance: 0.6580

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
• Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
• The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
• Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Significant weakness in the Kiwi has caused it to decline nearly 4.1% over the past three weeks but it stabilized around 0.5880 yesterday. This currency pair was trading around 0.5870 at the beginning of the Asia session and further downside can be expected for the Kiwi – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.5800

Resistance: 0.5980

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
• The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
• The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
• Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
• Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The yen strengthened significantly over the last three weeks causing USD/JPY to dive over 4.1% but it found a floor around the 153-level yesterday. This currency pair was edging higher towards 154 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 152.00

Resistance: 154.00

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
  2. The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
• Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Germany CPI (Tentative)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Inflation in Germany has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.2% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate in Germany along with the broader Euro Area, the Euro could come under selling pressures today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged in July, following a 25 basis points cut in June.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
• Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive but at the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
• While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June.
• The incoming information indicates that the euro area economy grew in the second quarter, but likely at a slower pace than in the first quarter.
• Services continue to lead the recovery, while industrial production and goods exports have been weak – investment indicators point to muted growth in 2024, amid heightened uncertainty.
• The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 12 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

Stronger demand for the dollar lifted USD/CHF overnight as it climbed above 0.8850. This currency pair was edging higher towards 0.8870 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8800

Resistance: 0.8920

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
• The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
• The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
• Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Stronger demand for the greenback pushed Cable as low as 1.2807 yesterday before retracing above 1.2850 by the end of the U.S. session. However, this currency pair reversed course and was retreating away from this level as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2776

Resistance: 1.2885

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
• Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
• Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
• UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
• UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
• The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
• Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Robust demand for the dollar lifted USD/CAD above 1.3850 overnight. Strong tailwinds remain in place for this currency pair as it continued climbing towards 1.3870 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3780

Resistance: 1.3880

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.50% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
• Canada’s economic growth likely picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of this year and is forecasted to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025.
• Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
• CPI inflation moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May as broad inflationary pressures eased.
• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm but shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation.
• These preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2.5% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025 and CPI inflation is expected to come down below core inflation in the second half of this year, largely because of base year effects on gasoline prices.
• There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4%, as employment continues to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderation, but remains elevated.
• The Governing Council’s future monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
• Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
• Next meeting is on 4 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

API Crude Oil Stock (8:30 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Oil today?

Crude oil prices tumbled nearly 2.1% after Israeli officials stated that they wanted to avoid a broader Middle East conflict – WTI oil fell under the $77-mark and was drifting lower towards $76.50 per barrel as Asian markets came online. Overhead pressures for this commodity continue to build further and even the higher-than-anticipated drawdown in U.S. oil inventories over the past four weeks have failed to put a floor under oil prices thus far.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 30 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

It will be a busy one on the economic calendar today in Europe. The preliminary Q2 GDP numbers will be key ones to watch but I would wager the inflation numbers from Germany and Spain to be the more crucial element for the ECB to consider at this stage.

The estimate is for headline annual inflation to come in at 2.2% in Germany for the month of July. That means it will be unchanged compared to the June reading. However, core annual inflation was still seen at 2.9% last month. The overall disinflation process remains intact but moving at a very gradual pace in the last few months.

As such, the ECB can’t quite claim victory yet nor rest on their laurels in pre-committing to a move in September. That’s pretty much the situation right now. So, let’s see if the numbers here will support the narrative for a rate cut after the summer.

Here’s the agenda for today:

• 0800 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
• 0800 GMT – Hesse
• 0800 GMT – Bavaria
• 0800 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
• 0800 GMT – Saxony
• 1200 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures

Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• 5 reasons the Bank of Japan should be wary of hiking rates this week
• Japan’s Hayashi says Bank of Japan and government to closely coordinate
• 📉 Chart of the day: Failed breakout in S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) 4-hour
• Bank of Japan Decision Day: Will Rates Rise or Hold Steady?
• Australia data – June Building approvals -6.5% m/m (expected -1.5%)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1364 (vs. estimate at 7.2586)
• Fake news headline – Elon Musk says he doesn’t like crypto all that much.
• 2 tweaks to watch for in Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement
• Australian weekly consumer confidence lower @ 83.1
• Japan data – June unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.6%)
• Global decline in McDonald’s sales is an excellent indication of how strong economies are
• 4 opportunities for the Federal Reserve to signal a rate cut – September a hot prospect
• Singapore’s Temasek plans to invest $30bn in the US over next 5 years
• China further obscuring information about overseas funds going in & out of its stock mrkt
• HSBC remains bullish on Asian equites
• Deutsche Bank on the Fed – “market has jumped the gun on a dovish pivot”
• MUFG worry that lack of BoJ guidance on this week’s meeting means no rate hike until Dec
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US dollar starts out strong and then gives some back
• Broader indices close modestly higher. Dow down marginally.
• Trade ideas thread – Tuesday, 30 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

About
the only fresh news or data of note during the session were the
employment figures from Japan for June. The unemployment
rate fell to 2.5%, its
first drop in five months. Separate data showed the consecutive
month of decline for
jobs to applicants, to a still huge 123
jobs available for every 100 job seekers.

USD/JPY
tracked a range between 153.63 and 154.24.

GBP
slid a little against the USD, as did CAD. AUD and NZD also a touch
soft but none of the ranges were large. EUR/USD dribbled a handful of
tics lower.

BTC/USD
too dribbled a little lower.

The
Bank of Japan decision is due tomorrow. The statement is expected
sometime between 0230 and 0330 GMT (there is never a set time from
the BoJ) on Wednesday, July 31, 2024

• thatt’s
  2230 – 2330 US Eastern time on Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Bank
of Japan Governor Ueda follows up with his press conference at 0630
GMT (0230 US Eastern time).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.