Articles
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD maintains position around $31.00 as traders await US CPI
401720 July 11, 2024 13:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Silver
price
holds
gains
as
investors
exercise
caution
ahead
of
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
due
on
Thursday. -
Fed
Powell’s
neutral
remarks
on
Wednesday
provided
support
for
non-yielding
Silver. -
Renewed
Israeli
attacks
could
hinder
efforts
to
negotiate
a
ceasefire
agreement
and
bolster
the
demand
for
the
safe-haven
Silver.
Silver
price
(XAG/USD)
gains
ground
for
the
third
successive
session,
trading
around
$31.00
per
troy
ounce
during
the
Asian
hours
on
Thursday.
This
upside
could
be
attributed
to
investors’
caution
ahead
of
the
release
of
the
upcoming
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
scheduled
for
release
on
Thursday,
for
more
clarity
on
the
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
monetary
policy
direction.
The
higher
interest
rates
negatively
impact
the
demand
for
non-yielding
assets
like
Silver.
Market
forecasts
generally
predict
that
the
annualized
US
core
CPI
for
the
year
ending
in
June
will
remain
steady
at
3.4%.
Meanwhile,
headline
CPI
inflation
is
expected
to
increase
to
0.1%
month-over-month
in
June,
compared
to
the
previous
flat
reading
of
0.0%.
Meanwhile,
on
Wednesday,
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chairman
Jerome
Powell
underscored
the
importance
of
closely
monitoring
the
labor
market,
highlighting
its
significant
deterioration.
Additionally,
Powell
expressed
confidence
in
the
downward
trend
of
inflation,
following
his
remarks
on
Tuesday
that
emphasized
the
necessity
of
further
data
to
strengthen
confidence
in
the
inflation
outlook.
Additionally,
Fed
Chair
Powell
emphasized
on
Tuesday
that
a
“policy
rate
cut
is
inappropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
greater
confidence
that
inflation
is
headed
sustainably
toward
2%.”
He
also
noted
that
“first-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.”
On
the
geopolitical
front,
Israeli
forces
carried
out
an
offensive
in
northern
and
central
Gaza
on
Tuesday,
which
included
an
airstrike
on
a
tent
encampment,
as
reported
by
Reuters.
Palestinian
officials
reported
that
at
least
29
people,
mostly
women
and
children,
were
killed
in
the
strike.
The
incident
occurred
as
spectators
gathered
at
a
school
grounds
in
Abassan,
east
of
Khan
Younis,
where
vendors
were
selling
smoothies
and
biscuits.
This
development
has
raised
concerns
about
a
possible
escalation
in
the
Middle
East
conflict
and
bolstered
the
appeal
of
safe-haven
assets
like
Silver.
Hamas,
the
militant
group,
warned
that
renewed
Israeli
attacks
could
disrupt
efforts
to
negotiate
a
ceasefire
in
the
Gaza
conflict,
with
discussions
slated
to
resume
in
Doha
on
Wednesday.
Silver
FAQs
Silver
is
a
precious
metal
highly
traded
among
investors.
It
has
been
historically
used
as
a
store
of
value
and
a
medium
of
exchange.
Although
less
popular
than
Gold,
traders
may
turn
to
Silver
to
diversify
their
investment
portfolio,
for
its
intrinsic
value
or
as
a
potential
hedge
during
high-inflation
periods.
Investors
can
buy
physical
Silver,
in
coins
or
in
bars,
or
trade
it
through
vehicles
such
as
Exchange
Traded
Funds,
which
track
its
price
on
international
markets.
Silver
prices
can
move
due
to
a
wide
range
of
factors.
Geopolitical
instability
or
fears
of
a
deep
recession
can
make
Silver
price
escalate
due
to
its
safe-haven
status,
although
to
a
lesser
extent
than
Gold’s.
As
a
yieldless
asset,
Silver
tends
to
rise
with
lower
interest
rates.
Its
moves
also
depend
on
how
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
behaves
as
the
asset
is
priced
in
dollars
(XAG/USD).
A
strong
Dollar
tends
to
keep
the
price
of
Silver
at
bay,
whereas
a
weaker
Dollar
is
likely
to
propel
prices
up.
Other
factors
such
as
investment
demand,
mining
supply
–
Silver
is
much
more
abundant
than
Gold
–
and
recycling
rates
can
also
affect
prices.
Silver
is
widely
used
in
industry,
particularly
in
sectors
such
as
electronics
or
solar
energy,
as
it
has
one
of
the
highest
electric
conductivity
of
all
metals
–
more
than
Copper
and
Gold.
A
surge
in
demand
can
increase
prices,
while
a
decline
tends
to
lower
them.
Dynamics
in
the
US,
Chinese
and
Indian
economies
can
also
contribute
to
price
swings:
for
the
US
and
particularly
China,
their
big
industrial
sectors
use
Silver
in
various
processes;
in
India,
consumers’
demand
for
the
precious
metal
for
jewellery
also
plays
a
key
role
in
setting
prices.
Silver
prices
tend
to
follow
Gold’s
moves.
When
Gold
prices
rise,
Silver
typically
follows
suit,
as
their
status
as
safe-haven
assets
is
similar.
The
Gold/Silver
ratio,
which
shows
the
number
of
ounces
of
Silver
needed
to
equal
the
value
of
one
ounce
of
Gold,
may
help
to
determine
the
relative
valuation
between
both
metals.
Some
investors
may
consider
a
high
ratio
as
an
indicator
that
Silver
is
undervalued,
or
Gold
is
overvalued.
On
the
contrary,
a
low
ratio
might
suggest
that
Gold
is
undervalued
relative
to
Silver.
Goldman Sachs set to launch tokenized products following BlackRock success
401719 July 11, 2024 13:39 FXStreet Market News
-
Goldman
Sachs
allegedly
revealed
its
plans
to
launch
three
tokenized
funds
by
2025,
according
to
Fortune. -
Goldman’s
digital
asset
global
head revealed
funds
will
be
launched
in
the
US
and
European
regions. -
BlackRock
tokenized
fund
BUILD
held
over
$500
million
in
AUM
as
of
Tuesday.
A
Fortune
report
on
Wednesday
revealed
that
Goldman
Sachs
is
set
to
launch
three
new
tokenized
products
later
this
year.
The
move
follows
BlackRock’s
successful
tokenized
fund
BUILD,
which
has
accumulated
about
$502
million
since
launching
in
March.
Goldman
Sachs
joins
race
for
tokenized
product
investment
Investment
firm
Goldman
Sachs
has
joined
the
list
of
companies
interested
in
launching
tokenized
funds.
The
150-year-old
firm
is
reported
to
have
revealed
plans
to
launch
three
tokenized
products
later
in
the
year.
According
to
Fortune,
the
bank’s
digital
asset
global
head,
Mathew
McDermott,
disclosed
in
an
interview
that
the
company
seeks
to
advance
investments
in
crypto
products.
The
company
now
seeks
to
delve
into
real-world
assets
tokenization
and
plans
to
launch
its
first
product
in
the
US.
Not
much
is
said
about
other
regions
where
the
tokenized
funds
will
operate,
but
it
will
be
widely
between
the
US
and
European
regions.
McDermott
allegedly
described
the
launch
of
the
spot
Bitcoin
ETFs
as
a
“renewed
momentum
in
crypto,”
but
shared
that
this
view
is
not
commonly
held
across
the
company.
“The
nice
thing
is,
about
an
institution
of
our
size,
there
are
differing
views,”
said
McDermott.
McDermott’s
view
contrasts
with
that
of
his
colleague
Sharmin
Mossavar-Rahmani,
chief
investment
officer
for
Goldman
Sachs
Wealth
Management.
In
an
interview
with
the
Wall
Street
Journal
in
April,
Sharmin
said
she
did
not
view
crypto
as
an
investment
asset
class.
Goldman
Sachs’
latest
move
follows
BlackRock
and
Franklin
Templeton’s
tokenized
funds,
launched
earlier
in
the
year.
The
BlackRock
USD
Institutional
Digital
Liquidity
(BUIDL),
launched
in
March,
attained
a
remarkable
feat
on
Tuesday
after
surpassing
the
$500
million
mark
in
assets
under
Management.
The
milestone
places
BlackRock’s
BUILD
as
the
largest
blockchain-based
tokenized
funds
by
market
cap,
ahead
of
Franklin
Templeton’s
FOXX
token.
With
the
success
of
BlackRock’s
BUILD
fund,
the
adoption
of
blockchain-based
real-world
assets
in
the
financial
industry
could
grow
as
more
traditional
financial
institutions
launch
tokenized
assets.
Full Article
US President Biden to hold a press conference at 5.30pm Washington time on Thursday
401718 July 11, 2024 13:17 Forexlive Latest News Market News
White
House
confirms
US
President
Biden’s
news
conference
on
Thursday,
11
July
2024
at
5.30pm
US
Eastern
time.
That’s
2130
GMT.
The
US
CPI
data
for
June
hits
tomorrow,
maybe
B
has
seen
the
number
and
is
happy
to
talk
about
it?
This
will
no
doubt
be
a
raucous
occasion
with
the
press
baying
for
answers
on
his
acuity.
AI
image.
Not
an
overly
kind
one.
The
two
elderly
gentlemen
running
for
the
White
House
perhaps
need
to
accept
some
responsibility
and
give
the
opportunity
to
others
better
placed
for
the
rigours
of
the
job.
AUD/JPY appreciates further beyond 109.00 mark, its highest level since May 1991
401717 July 11, 2024 13:16 FXStreet Market News
-
AUD/JPY
continues
scaling
higher
for
the
third
straight
day
and
climbs
to
a
fresh
multi-decade
high. -
The
risk-on
mood
undermines
the
safe-haven
JPY
and
lends
support
amid
hawkish
RBA
expectations. -
Speculations
that
the
BoJ
may
act
soon
in
response
to
the
weakening
JPY
and
cap
any
further
gains.
The
AUD/JPY
cross
gains
positive
traction
for
the
third
successive
day
and
climbs
to
its
highest
level
since
May
1991,
around
the
109.35
area
during
the
Asian
session
on
Thursday.
The
momentum
is
sponsored
by
a
combination
of
factors,
though
speculations
that
the
Bank
of
Japan
(BoJ)
may
raise
interest
rates
in
response
to
a
weakening
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
might
cap
any
further
gains.
Moreover,
a
Bloomberg
report
on
Tuesday
said
that
the
BoJ
is
conducting
three
in-person
meetings
with
banks,
securities
firms,
and
financial
institutions
to
assess
a
feasible
pace
for
scaling
back
its
purchases
of
Japanese
Government
Bonds.
Meanwhile,
Reuters
reported
on
Wednesday
–
citing
unnamed
sources
–
that
the
BoJ
will
likely
trim
this
year’s
economic
growth
forecast
and
project
inflation
will
stay
around
its
2%
target
in
coming
years
at
its
meeting
later
this
month.
Adding
to
this,
the
prevalent
risk-on
environment,
which
tends
to
undermine
the
safe-haven
JPY
and
benefit
risk-sensitive
Aussie,
is
seen
acting
as
a
tailwind
for
the
AUD/JPY
cross.
The
strong
move
up
could
further
be
attributed
to
bets
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
could
possibly
be
raising
interest
rates
again.
That
said,
speculations
that
Japanese
authorities
will
eventually
intervene
to
prop
up
the
domestic
currency
might
hold
back
traders
from
placing
fresh
bullish
bets
around
the
AUD/JPY
cross.
Market
participants,
however,
now
see
the
165.00
mark
for
the
USD/JPY
pair
as
a
new
line
in
the
sand
for
intervention.
This,
in
turn,
might
do
little
to
inspire
the
JPY
bulls,
which,
along
with
this
week’s
breakout
through
the
108.60
horizontal
resistance,
suggests
that
the
path
of
least
resistance
for
the
AUD/JPY
cross
is
to
the
upside.
Japanese
Yen
FAQs
The
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
is
one
of
the
world’s
most
traded
currencies.
Its
value
is
broadly
determined
by
the
performance
of
the
Japanese
economy,
but
more
specifically
by
the
Bank
of
Japan’s
policy,
the
differential
between
Japanese
and
US
bond
yields,
or
risk
sentiment
among
traders,
among
other
factors.
One
of
the
Bank
of
Japan’s
mandates
is
currency
control,
so
its
moves
are
key
for
the
Yen.
The
BoJ
has
directly
intervened
in
currency
markets
sometimes,
generally
to
lower
the
value
of
the
Yen,
although
it
refrains
from
doing
it
often
due
to
political
concerns
of
its
main
trading
partners.
The
current
BoJ
ultra-loose
monetary
policy,
based
on
massive
stimulus
to
the
economy,
has
caused
the
Yen
to
depreciate
against
its
main
currency
peers.
This
process
has
exacerbated
more
recently
due
to
an
increasing
policy
divergence
between
the
Bank
of
Japan
and
other
main
central
banks,
which
have
opted
to
increase
interest
rates
sharply
to
fight
decades-high
levels
of
inflation.
The
BoJ’s
stance
of
sticking
to
ultra-loose
monetary
policy
has
led
to
a
widening
policy
divergence
with
other
central
banks,
particularly
with
the
US
Federal
Reserve.
This
supports
a
widening
of
the
differential
between
the
10-year
US
and
Japanese
bonds,
which
favors
the
US
Dollar
against
the
Japanese
Yen.
The
Japanese
Yen
is
often
seen
as
a
safe-haven
investment.
This
means
that
in
times
of
market
stress,
investors
are
more
likely
to
put
their
money
in
the
Japanese
currency
due
to
its
supposed
reliability
and
stability.
Turbulent
times
are
likely
to
strengthen
the
Yen’s
value
against
other
currencies
seen
as
more
risky
to
invest
in.
Key dynamics to watch ahead of launch of Ethereum ETFs
401714 July 11, 2024 13:14 FXStreet Market News
-
Ethereum
ETFs
close
to
finish
line,
says
Bitwise
executive. -
Ethereum
investors
are
buying
the
dip
despite
FUD
from
potential
Golem
selling
spree. -
Ethereum
bearish
pressure
has
slowed,
but
key
resistance
could
prove
critical
ahead
of
ETH
ETF
launch.
Ethereum
(ETH)
is
up
2.3%
on
Wednesday
as
investors
continue
buying
the
dip
in
hopes
of
a
rally
following
the
launch
of
spot
ETH
ETFs.
However,
other
key
metrics
like
break-even
prices
and
Golem
sales
provide
a
deeper
understanding
of
what
to
expect
as
the
launch
draws
nearer.
Daily
digest
market
movers:
Ethereum
accumulation,
Golem
sales
With
the
potential
launch
of
spot
ETH
ETFs
drawing
closer
amid
the
wider
market
stagnancy,
investors
are
readjusting
their
portfolios.
Bitwise
chief
compliance
officer
Katherine
Dowling
confirmed
that
the
launch
is
“close
to
the
finish
line.”
“We’re
seeing
in
the
S-1
amendments
that
there
are
fewer
and
fewer
issues
that
are
being
vetted
back
and
forth
between
issuers
and
the
SEC,”
said
Dowling
in
a
Bloomberg
interview.
“So
that
points
all
signs
in
the
direction
that
we
are
close.
We’re
close
to
the
finish
line
on
the
launch,”
she
added.
The
Securities
&
Exchange
Commission
(SEC)
approved
spot
ETH
ETF
issuers’
19b-4
filings
in
May,
but
the
agency
needs
to
greenlight
their
S-1s
before
the
products
can
begin
trading.
Ethereum’s
recent
descent
saw
more
investors
accumulating
the
altcoin,
as
revealed
in
CryptoQuant’s
data.
These
investors
are
considering
the
dip
as
an
opportunity
to
purchase
ETH
at
a
discount
before
ETH
ETFs
launch
in
tandem.
The
lower
ETH
goes,
the
more
investors
buy.
ETH
New
Accumulating
Adresses
Balance
Santiment
data
shows
that
some
of
these
purchases
have
been
flowing
into
staking
platforms.
The
Ethereum
2.0
staking
contract
now
holds
47.36
million
ETH
or
about
34%
of
ETH’s
entire
supply.
Notably,
the
contract’s
holdings
have
more
than
tripled
from
just
under
11%
of
ETH’s
supply
it
held
in
2022.
ETH2
Beacon
Deposit
Contract
Meanwhile,
Golem,
which
raised
820,000
ETH
through
an
ICO
in
2016,
has
been
on
a
potential
selling
spree.
After
transferring
40,000
ETH
to
address
“0x159a”,
the
address
deposited
3,000
ETH
worth
$9.3
million
to
Binance,
Bitfinex
and
Coinbase
in
the
past
few
hours,
according
to
Lookonchain.
Golem
has
deposited
about
32,000
ETH
to
exchanges
in
the
past
six
days.
ETH
technical
analysis:
Ethereum
faces
a
key
resistance
at
$3,200
Ethereum
is
trading
around
$3,130
on
Wednesday,
up
2.3%
on
the
day.
ETH’s
total
liquidations
in
the
past
24
hours
are
at
$33.58
million,
with
long
and
short
liquidations
accounting
for
$23.18
million
and
$10.40
million,
respectively,
according
to
data
from
Coinglass.
ETH’s
long
and
short
ratio
shows
traders
are
slowly
reducing
their
bearish
sentiment
as
the
ratio
has
increased
to
0.989.
However,
Ethereum’s
Fear
and
Greed
Index
is
at
number
30,
indicating
fear
persists
in
the
market
despite
increasing
accumulation
from
whale
addresses.
Into
The
Block’s
data
shows
that
more
than
5.6
million
addresses
broke
even
after
ETH
reached
$3,000,
a
potential
sell
sign
for
these
addresses.
It
could
be
that
whales
bullish
on
the
ETH
ETF
approval
accumulated
selling
pressure
from
retail
traders
who
potentially
sold
off
their
tokens
after
ETH
reclaimed
the
$3,000
psychological
level.
As
ETH’s
price
slowly
tilts
toward
the
upside,
it
may
face
a
resistance
at
the
$3,200
level.
According
to
IntoTheBlock,
approximately
2
million
addresses
that
purchased
ETH
around
this
level
could
sell
if
they
break
even.
However,
a
price
catalyst
like
the
ETH
ETF
going
live
can
prevent
such
a
move.
ETH/USDT
4-hour
chart
On
the
downside,
the
$2,800
to
$2,852
level
remains
a
key
support
if
the
bearish
pressure
increases.In
the
short
term,
ETH
could
bounce
off
the
$3,064
level,
where
$3.32
million
ETH
longs
risk
liquidation.
Ethereum
FAQs
Ethereum
is
a
decentralized
open-source
blockchain
with
smart
contracts
functionality.
Serving
as
the
basal
network
for
the
Ether
(ETH)
cryptocurrency,
it
is
the
second
largest
crypto
and
largest
altcoin
by
market
capitalization.
The
Ethereum
network
is
tailored
for
scalability,
programmability,
security,
and
decentralization,
attributes
that
make
it
popular
among
developers.
Ethereum
uses
decentralized
blockchain
technology,
where
developers
can
build
and
deploy
applications
that
are
independent
of
the
central
authority.
To
make
this
easier,
the
network
has
a
programming
language
in
place,
which
helps
users
create
self-executing
smart
contracts.
A
smart
contract
is
basically
a
code
that
can
be
verified
and
allows
inter-user
transactions.
Staking
is
a
process
where
investors
grow
their
portfolios
by
locking
their
assets
for
a
specified
duration
instead
of
selling
them.
It
is
used
by
most
blockchains,
especially
the
ones
that
employ
Proof-of-Stake
(PoS)
mechanism,
with
users
earning
rewards
as
an
incentive
for
committing
their
tokens.
For
most
long-term
cryptocurrency
holders,
staking
is
a
strategy
to
make
passive
income
from
your
assets,
putting
them
to
work
in
exchange
for
reward
generation.
Ethereum
transitioned
from
a
Proof-of-Work
(PoW)
to
a
Proof-of-Stake
(PoS)
mechanism
in
an
event
christened
“The
Merge.”
The
transformation
came
as
the
network
wanted
to
achieve
more
security,
cut
down
on
energy
consumption
by
99.95%,
and
execute
new
scaling
solutions
with
a
possible
threshold
of
100,000
transactions
per
second.
With
PoS,
there
are
less
entry
barriers
for
miners
considering
the
reduced
energy
demands.
Full Article
US inflation to hog the spotlight in trading today
401713 July 11, 2024 12:40 Forexlive Latest News Market News
US
CPI
year-on-year
(%)
And
that
will
keep
markets
in
a
bit
of
a
bind
until
we
get
to
the
release
later
in
the
day.
The
estimate
for
headline
annual
inflation
is
for
it
to
slow
to
3.1%.
Meanwhile,
core
annual
inflation
is
estimated
to
remain
at
3.4%
–
unchanged
from
May.
Either
way,
the
details
are
going
to
be
as
important
as
the
numbers
above.
So,
just
be
wary
of
that.
These
were
from
last
month.
As
much
as
markets
are
waiting
with
bated
breath
on
the
report,
it
might
end
up
being
a
case
of
it
not
changing
anything.
Traders
are
seeing
two
rate
cuts
by
year-end
for
the
Fed
now
and
it
will
take
a
real
surprise
to
shift
that
expectation.
It’s
kind
of
a
Goldilocks
position
for
the
Fed,
so
they’re
quite
fine
with
this.
I
mean,
we
already
saw
how
things
played
out
in
the
last
two
months.
It
all
starts
with
traders
reacting
to
the
inflation
numbers,
only
to
reverse
the
moves
in
the
days
later.
In
any
case,
the
waiting
and
anticipation
will
make
for
a
more
pensive
session
later
in
Europe.
So,
don’t
expect
major
moves
before
we
get
to
the
main
event
later
in
the
day.
US Dollar Index holds below 105.00 as traders await US CPI inflation data
401712 July 11, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
-
The US
Dollar
Index (DXY)
loses
ground
near
104.95 -
Fed
rate
cut
bets
continue
to
undermine
the
DXY. -
The
cautious
mood
and
safe-haven
flows
might
cap
the
USD
Index’s
downside.
The US
Dollar
Index (DXY)
trades
in
negative
territory
for
the
second
consecutive
day
around
104.95
during
the
Asian
session
on
Thursday.
The
DXY
edges
lower
despite
the
cautious
stance
of
the
US
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
Chair
Jerome
Powell.
Investors
will
watch
the
US
June
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
data
for
fresh
impetus,
along
with
the
weekly
Initial
Jobless
Claims
and
speeches
by
the
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
Raphael
Bostic.
Fed’s
Powell
said
on
Wednesday
before
the
US
House
Financial
Services
Committee
that
the
US
central
bank
will
make
interest
rate
decisions
based
on
the
data,
the
incoming
data,
the
evolving
outlook,
and
the
balance
of
risks,
and
not
in
consideration
of
political
factors. Powell
added
that
it
would
not
be
appropriate
to
cut
the
policy
rate
until
they
gain
greater
confidence
in
inflation
heading
sustainably
towards
the
Fed’s
2%
target.
Meanwhile,
Fed
Governor
Lisa
Cook
said
on
Thursday
that
US
inflation
should
continue
to
fall
without
a
significant
further
rise
in
the
Unemployment
Rate.
The
Fed’s
cautious
stance
failed
to
boost
the
Greenback
as
traders
await
the
US
key
inflation
report,
which
is
due
on
Thursday.
The
US
CPI
is
expected
to
show
an
increase
of
3.1%
YoY
in
June,
while
core
inflation
is
forecast
to
remain
steady
at
3.4%
YoY.
In
case
the
report
shows
softer-than-expected
inflation
readings,
this
could
further
weigh
on
the
DXY.
The
markets
have
priced
in
less
than
10%
odds
of
a
Fed
July
rate
cut,
while
the
expectation
for
a
September
cut
stood
at
73%,
according
to
the
CME
FedWatch
Tool.
On
the
other
hand,
the
risk-off
mood
ahead
of
the
key
economic
data,
along
with
the
political
uncertainties
in
Europe
and
geopolitical
risks
in
the
Middle
East
might
provide
some
support
to
the
safe-haven
US
Dollar.
US
Dollar
FAQs
The
US
Dollar
(USD)
is
the
official
currency
of
the
United
States
of
America,
and
the
‘de
facto’
currency
of
a
significant
number
of
other
countries
where
it
is
found
in
circulation
alongside
local
notes.
It
is
the
most
heavily
traded
currency
in
the
world,
accounting
for
over
88%
of
all
global
foreign
exchange
turnover,
or
an
average
of
$6.6
trillion
in
transactions
per
day,
according
to
data
from
2022.
Following
the
second
world
war,
the
USD
took
over
from
the
British
Pound
as
the
world’s
reserve
currency.
For
most
of
its
history,
the
US
Dollar
was
backed
by
Gold,
until
the
Bretton
Woods
Agreement
in
1971
when
the
Gold
Standard
went
away.
The
most
important
single
factor
impacting
on
the
value
of
the
US
Dollar
is
monetary
policy,
which
is
shaped
by
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed).
The
Fed
has
two
mandates:
to
achieve
price
stability
(control
inflation)
and
foster
full
employment.
Its
primary
tool
to
achieve
these
two
goals
is
by
adjusting
interest
rates.
When
prices
are
rising
too
quickly
and
inflation
is
above
the
Fed’s
2%
target,
the
Fed
will
raise
rates,
which
helps
the
USD
value.
When
inflation
falls
below
2%
or
the
Unemployment
Rate
is
too
high,
the
Fed
may
lower
interest
rates,
which
weighs
on
the
Greenback.
In
extreme
situations,
the
Federal
Reserve
can
also
print
more
Dollars
and
enact
quantitative
easing
(QE).
QE
is
the
process
by
which
the
Fed
substantially
increases
the
flow
of
credit
in
a
stuck
financial
system.
It
is
a
non-standard
policy
measure
used
when
credit
has
dried
up
because
banks
will
not
lend
to
each
other
(out
of
the
fear
of
counterparty
default).
It
is
a
last
resort
when
simply
lowering
interest
rates
is
unlikely
to
achieve
the
necessary
result.
It
was
the
Fed’s
weapon
of
choice
to
combat
the
credit
crunch
that
occurred
during
the
Great
Financial
Crisis
in
2008.
It
involves
the
Fed
printing
more
Dollars
and
using
them
to
buy
US
government
bonds
predominantly
from
financial
institutions.
QE
usually
leads
to
a
weaker
US
Dollar.
Quantitative
tightening
(QT)
is
the
reverse
process
whereby
the
Federal
Reserve
stops
buying
bonds
from
financial
institutions
and
does
not
reinvest
the
principal
from
the
bonds
it
holds
maturing
in
new
purchases.
It
is
usually
positive
for
the
US
Dollar.
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Descending trend line resistance to cap gains ahead of US CPI
401710 July 11, 2024 12:39 FXStreet Market News
-
EUR/USD
gains
positive
traction
for
the
second
successive
day
amid
a
softer
USD. -
The
technical
setup
favors
bullish
traders
and
supports
prospects
for
further
gains. -
Political
uncertainty
in
France
might
cap
gains
ahead
of
the
crucial
US
CPI
report.
The
EUR/USD
pair
attracts
buyers
for
the
second
successive
day
on
Thursday
and
moves
back
closer
to
a
nearly
four-week
high
touched
on
Monday.
Spot
prices,
however,
remain
below
mid-1.0800s
as
traders
await
the
release
of
the
US
consumer
inflation
figures
before
placing
fresh
directional
bets.
Heading
into
the
key
data
risk,
growing
acceptance
that
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
start
cutting
interest
rates
in
September
keeps
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
bulls
on
the
defensive
and
continues
to
lend
some
support
to
the
EUR/USD
pair.
That
said,
the
poll
results
of
the
second
round
of
the
French
parliamentary
elections
raise
the
possibility
of
a
hung
parliament.
This
could
act
as
a
headwind
for
the
shared
currency
and
keep
a
lid
on
any
further
appreciating
move
for
the
major.
From
a
technical
perspective,
the
recent
breakout
through
the
1.0800
confluence
hurdle
–
comprising
50-day,
100-day
and
200-day
Simple
Moving
Averages
(SMAs)
favor
bullish
traders.
Moreover,
oscillators
on
the
daily
chart
have
been
gaining
positive
traction
and
suggest
that
the
path
of
least
resistance
for
the
EUR/USD
pair
is
to
the
upside.
That
said,
any
subsequent
move-up
is
likely
to
confront
stiff
resistance
near
a
downward-sloping
line,
currently
around
the
1.0880
area.
That
said,
a
sustained
strength
beyond
will
be
seen
as
a
fresh
trigger
for
bullish
traders
and
pave
the
way
for
additional
gains.
Some
follow-through
buying
beyond
the
1.0900
mark
will
reaffirm
the
constructive
outlook
and
lift
the
EUR/USD
pair
to
the
next
relevant
resistance
near
the
1.0960-1.0965
region.
The
momentum
could
extend
beyond
the
March
swing
high,
around
the
1.0880
area,
and
allow
spot
prices
to
reclaim
the
1.1000
psychological
mark
for
the
first
time
since
early
January.
On
the
flip
side,
any
meaningful
dip
is
likely
to
attract
fresh
buyers
near
the
1.0800
confluence
resistance
breakpoint
turned
support.
This
should
help
limit
the
downside
for
the
EUR/USD
pair
near
the
1.0755-1.0750
horizontal
zone.
Failure
to
defend
the
said
support
levels,
however,
might
prompt
some
technical
selling
and
drag
spot
prices
further
below
the
1.0700
mark,
towards
challenging
June
monthly
swing
low,
around
the
1.0665
region.
EUR/USD
daily
chart
Euro
FAQs
The
Euro
is
the
currency
for
the
20
European
Union
countries
that
belong
to
the
Eurozone.
It
is
the
second
most
heavily
traded
currency
in
the
world
behind
the
US
Dollar.
In
2022,
it
accounted
for
31%
of
all
foreign
exchange
transactions,
with
an
average
daily
turnover
of
over
$2.2
trillion
a
day.
EUR/USD
is
the
most
heavily
traded
currency
pair
in
the
world,
accounting
for
an
estimated
30%
off
all
transactions,
followed
by
EUR/JPY
(4%),
EUR/GBP
(3%)
and
EUR/AUD
(2%).
The
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
in
Frankfurt,
Germany,
is
the
reserve
bank
for
the
Eurozone.
The
ECB
sets
interest
rates
and
manages
monetary
policy.
The
ECB’s
primary
mandate
is
to
maintain
price
stability,
which
means
either
controlling
inflation
or
stimulating
growth.
Its
primary
tool
is
the
raising
or
lowering
of
interest
rates.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
–
or
the
expectation
of
higher
rates
–
will
usually
benefit
the
Euro
and
vice
versa.
The
ECB
Governing
Council
makes
monetary
policy
decisions
at
meetings
held
eight
times
a
year.
Decisions
are
made
by
heads
of
the
Eurozone
national
banks
and
six
permanent
members,
including
the
President
of
the
ECB,
Christine
Lagarde.
Eurozone
inflation
data,
measured
by
the
Harmonized
Index
of
Consumer
Prices
(HICP),
is
an
important
econometric
for
the
Euro.
If
inflation
rises
more
than
expected,
especially
if
above
the
ECB’s
2%
target,
it
obliges
the
ECB
to
raise
interest
rates
to
bring
it
back
under
control.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
compared
to
its
counterparts
will
usually
benefit
the
Euro,
as
it
makes
the
region
more
attractive
as
a
place
for
global
investors
to
park
their
money.
Data
releases
gauge
the
health
of
the
economy
and
can
impact
on
the
Euro.
Indicators
such
as
GDP,
Manufacturing
and
Services
PMIs,
employment,
and
consumer
sentiment
surveys
can
all
influence
the
direction
of
the
single
currency.
A
strong
economy
is
good
for
the
Euro.
Not
only
does
it
attract
more
foreign
investment
but
it
may
encourage
the
ECB
to
put
up
interest
rates,
which
will
directly
strengthen
the
Euro.
Otherwise,
if
economic
data
is
weak,
the
Euro
is
likely
to
fall.
Economic
data
for
the
four
largest
economies
in
the
euro
area
(Germany,
France,
Italy
and
Spain)
are
especially
significant,
as
they
account
for
75%
of
the
Eurozone’s
economy.
Another
significant
data
release
for
the
Euro
is
the
Trade
Balance.
This
indicator
measures
the
difference
between
what
a
country
earns
from
its
exports
and
what
it
spends
on
imports
over
a
given
period.
If
a
country
produces
highly
sought
after
exports
then
its
currency
will
gain
in
value
purely
from
the
extra
demand
created
from
foreign
buyers
seeking
to
purchase
these
goods.
Therefore,
a
positive
net
Trade
Balance
strengthens
a
currency
and
vice
versa
for
a
negative
balance.
US CPI data due Thursday. Here are the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)
401709 July 11, 2024 12:18 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Later
today,
Thursday,
11
July
2024,
we
get
the
US
consumer
inflation
data.
-
Due
at
1230
GMT,
which
is
0830
US
Eastern
time.
What
to
expect.
This
snapshot
from
the
ForexLive
economic
data
calendar,
access
it
here.
Taking
a
look
at
the
range
of
expectations
compared
to
the
median
consensus
(the
‘expected’
in
the
screenshot
above)
for
the
key
data
points:
June
CPI
Headline
y/y
range
of
estimates
showing:
-
3.0%
to
3.3%
June
CPI
Headline
m/m
range
of
estimates
showing:
-
0.0
to
0.2%
June
CPI
excluding
food
and
energy
(the
core
rate
of
inflation)
y/y
range
of
estimates
showing:
-
3.3
to
3.5%
June
CPI
excluding
food
and
energy
(the
core
rate
of
inflation)
m/m
range
of
estimates
showing:
-
0.1
to
0.3%
***
Why
is
knowledge
of
such
ranges
important?
Data
results
that
fall
outside
of
market
low
and
high
expectations
tend
to
move
markets
more
significantly
for
several
reasons:
-
Surprise
Factor:
Markets
often
price
in
expectations
based
on
forecasts
and
previous
trends.
When
data
significantly
deviates
from
these
expectations,
it
creates
a
surprise
effect.
This
can
lead
to
rapid
revaluation
of
assets
as
investors
and
traders
reassess
their
positions
based
on
the
new
information. -
Psychological
Impact:
Investors
and
traders
are
influenced
by
psychological
factors.
Extreme
data
points
can
evoke
strong
emotional
reactions,
leading
to
overreactions
in
the
market.
This
can
amplify
market
movements,
especially
in
the
short
term. -
Risk
Reassessment:
Unexpected
data
can
lead
to
a
reassessment
of
risk.
If
data
significantly
underperforms
or
outperforms
expectations,
it
can
change
the
perceived
risk
of
certain
investments.
For
instance,
better-than-expected
economic
data
may
reduce
the
perceived
risk
of
investing
in
equities,
leading
to
a
market
rally. -
Triggering
of
Automated
Trading:
In
today’s
markets,
a
significant
portion
of
trading
is
done
by
algorithms.
These
automated
systems
often
have
pre-set
conditions
or
thresholds
that,
when
triggered
by
unexpected
data,
can
lead
to
large-scale
buying
or
selling. -
Impact
on
Monetary
and
Fiscal
Policies:
Data
that
is
significantly
off
from
expectations
can
influence
the
policies
of
central
banks
and
governments.
For
example,
in
the
case
of
the
inflation
data
due
today,
weaker
than
expected
will
fuel
speculation
of
nearer
and
larger
Federal
Open
Market
Committee
(FOMC)
rate
cuts.
A
stronger
(i.e.
higher)
CPI
report
will
diminish
such
expectations. -
Liquidity
and
Market
Depth:
In
some
cases,
extreme
data
points
can
affect
market
liquidity.
If
the
data
is
unexpected
enough,
it
might
lead
to
a
temporary
imbalance
in
buyers
and
sellers,
causing
larger
market
moves
until
a
new
equilibrium
is
found. -
Chain
Reactions
and
Correlations:
Financial
markets
are
interconnected.
A
significant
move
in
one
market
or
asset
class
due
to
unexpected
data
can
lead
to
correlated
moves
in
other
markets,
amplifying
the
overall
market
impact.
Thursday 11th July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review
401708 July 11, 2024 12:17 ICMarkets Market News
DXY (US Dollar Index):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support
Pivot: 105.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 104.46
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 105.49
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/USD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is above the bullish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0794
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 1.0723
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.0862
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 171.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 169.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 176.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
EUR/GBP:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support
Pivot: 0.8457
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8404
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8499
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
GBP/USD:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2859
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2778
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2894
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
RSI: Also displaying bearish divergence versus price, suggesting that a reversal might occur soon.
GBP/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 212.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 100% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 197.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 225.58
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/CHF:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8996
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8945
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.9045
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/JPY:
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 161.68
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 160.33
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 162.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
USD/CAD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot:1.3602
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a potential area where price could stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 1.3559
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 1.3645
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.
AUD/USD:
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price has made a bullish break above the pivot and could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6753
Supporting reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the bullish momentum could carry price higher. The presence of the bullish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bullish momentum.
1st support: 0.6731
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.6778
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
NZD/USD
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop lower towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6113
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 0.6070
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area that could halt further downward momentum.
1st resistance: 0.6148
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 61.8% retracement and the 78.6% projection levels, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
US30 (DJIA):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 40,062.11
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 39,622.34
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 40,660.41
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
DE40 (DAX):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 18,424.70
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st Support: 18,227.90
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 18,568.00
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
US500 (S&P 500):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,651.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 5,586.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 5,707.32
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci projection level, suggesting a critical area where selling pressures may intensify and potentially halt further upward movement.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin):
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price has made a bearish reversal off the pivot and could potentially drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 59,022.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of the bearish Ichimoku cloud adds further significance to the bearish momentum.
1st support: 55,143.09
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 61,756.71
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
ETH/USD (Ethereum):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,065.28
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st Support: 2,878.94
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st Resistance: 3,258.56
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.
WTI/USD (Oil):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish break above this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 83.21
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level where the bullish momentum could drive price higher.
1st Support: 80.95
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 84.78
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
XAU/USD (GOLD):
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 2351.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 2335.08
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2392.15
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
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IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 July 2024
401707 July 11, 2024 12:16 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 July 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concluded the second day of his Congressional testimony on the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee where he commented on the weakening labour market; the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% in March to 4.1% in June while non-farm payrolls (NFPs) experienced significant downward revisions for the months of April and May. These remarks have been construed by markets that the Fed is strongly considering the first interest rate cut at September’s FOMC meeting – the CME FedWatch Tool, as of 10th July 2024, has a 70% probability of a 25-basis point cut for this meeting. The dollar index (DXY) hit a high of 105.10 before reversing to dip under the 105-level by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The DXY continued its downward slide this morning while prices for spot gold climbed towards $2,380/oz. Crude oil – which saw a decline of over 2% in the beginning of the week – reversed sharply overnight. WTI oil rebounded off the $81-level to bounce strongly and rise above $82.80 per barrel – prices have breached $83 and the bullish momentum looks set to extend further as the day progresses.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
CPI (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
After easing in May, inflation is once again anticipated to moderate lower for the month of June. Headline CPI is forecasted to drop from 3.3% in May down to 3.1% YoY – should overall inflation cool for the second consecutive month, the dollar is bound to face strong overhead pressures.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims have risen in recent weeks to signal potential ‘cracks’ in the labour market with the 4-week average now moving up to 238K. This week’s estimate stands at 236K and should claims surprise to the upside for the seventh time in eight weeks, it could function as a massive bearish catalyst for the dollar.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
CPI (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
After easing in May, inflation is once again anticipated to moderate lower for the month of June. Headline CPI is forecasted to drop from 3.3% in May down to 3.1% YoY – should overall inflation cool for the second consecutive month, gold should receive a strong boost.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims have risen in recent weeks to signal potential ‘cracks’ in the labour market with the 4-week average now moving up to 238K. This week’s estimate stands at 236K and should claims surprise to the upside for the seventh time in eight weeks, it could function as a massive bullish catalyst for this precious metal.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie rose above its near-term resistance of 0.6750 this morning and was rising towards 0.6770 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6750
Resistance: 0.6825
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
- Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
- The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
- Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
- The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
- Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Following the RBNZ’s decision to hold the official cash rate steady at 5.5% for the eighth consecutive board meeting yesterday, the Kiwi tumbled almost 0.7% to fall as low as 0.6065 at its lowest point. This currency pair was trading around 0.6095 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6070
Resistance: 0.6115
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
- The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
- The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
- Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
- Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Despite comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the slowdown in the U.S. labour markets based on recent data, USD/JPY remains elevated due to the significant weakness in the yen. This currency pair was rising towards 161.80 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 161.40
Resistance: 162.00
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
- The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
- Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
Germany CPI (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The final CPI reading for Germany will be released today and it is expected to show inflationary pressures dissipating further. Headline CPI is anticipated to rise just 0.1% MoM for the second month in a row – a result that could weaken the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
- Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
- At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
- Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
- The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
The overnight comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have caused USD/CHF to retreat from its recent high of 0.9000. This currency pair was trading around 0.8985 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8950
Resistance: 0.9000
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
- The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
- Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
GDP (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
GDP output in the U.K. was relatively strong in the first quarter of 2024 with the monthly growth rate averaging an output of 0.3%. After stagnating in April, May’s estimate of 0.2% points to minor rebound in economic activity. Should the latest result surprise to the upside, it could function as a bullish catalyst for the Pound.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
- Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
- Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
- UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
- UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
- The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
- Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
Weak demand for the greenback has pushed USD/CAD lower in recent weeks. This currency pair was trading around 1.3615 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3590
Resistance: 1.3645
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
- Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
- CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
- In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
- The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
- Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
- Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Crude oil – which saw a decline of over 2% in the beginning of the week – reversed sharply overnight as a higher-than-anticipated drawdown in the EIA inventories functioned as a strong bullish catalyst. Inventories were forecasted to increase by 0.7M barrels of crude but dropped by 3.4M barrels instead. WTI oil rebounded off the $81-level to bounce strongly and rise above $82.80 per barrel – prices have breached $83 and the bullish momentum looks set to extend further as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
Japanese Yen improves as 10-year JGB yield remains stable, US CPI awaited
401705 July 11, 2024 12:15 FXStreet Market News
-
The
Japanese
Yen
strengthens
as
overseas
investors
anticipate
the
BoJ
raising rates
in
July. -
The
Japanese
government’s
10-year
JGB
yield
remains
stable
at
around
1.09%,
close
to
its
recent
high
of
1.10%. -
Fed
Chair
Powell
highlighted
the
urgent
need
to
monitor
the
deteriorating
labor
market.
The
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
edges
higher on
Thursday,
possibly
driven
by
the
rising
speculation
that
the
Bank
of
Japan
(BoJ)
might
raise
interest
rates
at
its
upcoming
July
meeting.
This
development
supported
the
JPY
while
weakening
the
USD/JPY
pair.
The
Japanese
government’s
10-year
JGB
yield
holds
steady
at
approximately
1.09%,
near
its
peak
of
1.1%
recorded
on
July
3.
The
stability
comes
amidst
selling
pressure
on
Japanese
government
bonds,
reflecting
overseas
investors’
anticipation
that
the
Bank
of
Japan
may
raise
interest
rates
in
response
to
a
weakening
Japanese
Yen,
as
reported
by
Nikkei
Asia.
The
US
Dollar
(USD)
weakened,
likely
impacted
by
lower
US
Treasury
yields.
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
highlighted
the
urgent
need
to
monitor
the
deteriorating
labor
market
on
Wednesday
while
expressing
optimism
about
the
downward
trajectory
of
inflation.
Traders
are
now
eyeing
the
upcoming
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
scheduled
for
release
on
Thursday,
for
more
clarity
on
the
Federal
Reserve’s
(Fed)
monetary
policy
direction.
Daily
Digest
Market
Movers:
Japanese
Yen
improves
amid
hawkish
sentiment
surrounding
the
BoJ
-
Peter
Boockvar,
chief
financial
officer
at
US-based
Bleakley
Financial
Group,
said
that
the
Yen’s
weakness
will
trigger
the
BoJ
to
“react
sooner
rather
than
later,”
per
Reuters. -
Reuters
reported
on
Wednesday,
citing
unnamed
sources,
the
Bank
of
Japan
will
likely
trim
this
year’s
economic
growth
forecast
and
project
inflation
will
stay
around
its
2%
target
in
coming
years
at
its
meeting
this
month. -
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
stated
in
his
Congressional
testimony
on
Tuesday,
“More
good
data
would
strengthen
our
confidence
in
inflation.”
Powell
emphasized
that
a
“Policy
rate
cut
is
not
appropriate
until
the
Fed
gains
greater
confidence
that
inflation
is
headed
sustainably
toward
2%.”
He
also
noted
that
“first-quarter
data
did
not
support
the
greater
confidence
in
the
inflation
path
that
the
Fed
needs
to
cut
rates.” -
According
to
a
Bloomberg
report
on
Tuesday,
the
Bank
of
Japan
is
conducting
three
in-person
meetings
with
banks,
securities
firms,
and
financial
institutions
over
the
next
few
days.
The
purpose
of
these
meetings
is
to
assess
a
feasible
pace
for
scaling
back
its
purchases
of
Japanese
Government
Bonds. -
On
Tuesday,
Japan’s
Finance
Minister
Shunichi
Suzuki
underscored
the
significance
of
maintaining
fiscal
discipline
to
bolster
confidence
in
long-term
fiscal
health.
Suzuki
also
mentioned
monitoring
closely
the
discussions
at
the
BoJ
meeting
concerning
the
bond
market,
as
reported
by
Reuters. -
The
Japanese
Yen
may
struggle
due
to
overseas
asset
purchases
by
Japanese
individuals
through
the
newly
revamped
tax-free
investment
scheme,
the
Nippon
Individual
Savings
Account
(NISA)
program.
According
to
Nikkei
Asia,
the
scale
of
these
purchases
is
expected
to
exceed
the
country’s
trade
deficit
during
the
first
half
of
this
year. -
Japan’s
Ministry
of
Finance
reported
on
Monday
that
Japanese
investment
trust
management
companies
and
asset
management
firms
bought
¥6.16
trillion
($38
billion)
more
in
offshore
equities
and
investment
fund
shares
than
they
sold
during
the
first
six
months
of
the
year.
Technical
Analysis:
USD/JPY
hovers
around
161.50
USD/JPY
trades
around
161.60
on
Thursday,
maintaining
an
upward
trajectory
within
an
ascending
channel
pattern,
indicating
a
bullish
bias
according
to
daily
chart
analysis.
Supporting
this
outlook,
the
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
sits
just
below
the
70
level,
suggesting
potential
overbought
conditions.
A
breach
above
this
level
could
signal
a
need
for
caution
and
a
possible
correction.
The
USD/JPY
pair
may
aim
for
psychological
resistance
near
163.00,
located
at
the
upper
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel.
A
successful
breakout
above
this
level
could
reinforce
bullish
sentiment,
potentially
pushing
the
pair
toward
significant
resistance
around
163.50.
Conversely,
initial
support
is
expected
around
the
21-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
at
160.13.
A
drop
below
this
level
might
trigger
selling
pressure,
testing
the
lower
boundary
of
the
ascending
channel
near
the
psychological
level
of
160.00.
A
further
decline
below
this
channel
support
could
see
the
pair
revisiting
June’s
low
around
154.55.
USD/JPY:
Daily
Chart
Japanese
Yen
PRICE
Today
The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
Japanese
Yen
(JPY)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
Japanese
Yen
was
the
strongest
against
the
US
Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.07% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.22% | -0.27% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.14% | -0.19% | 0.00% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.04% | 0.06% | -0.13% | -0.18% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | 0.05% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.18% | -0.27% | -0.02% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.00% | -0.21% | -0.24% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.22% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.18% | 0.21% | -0.06% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | 0.27% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.22% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | -0.01% | -0.04% | 0.02% | 0.03% | -0.15% | -0.22% |
The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
Japanese
Yen
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
JPY
(base)/USD
(quote).