Articles

The CPI importance is fading

401771   July 11, 2024 19:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Michael
Brown,
Senior
Research
Strategist
at
Pepperstone,

shared
on
X
an
interesting
finding
today.
“The
EUR
overnight
implied
volatility
sits
at
8.8%
into
CPI
later
on,
implying
a
move
of
+/-40
pips
over
the
tenor.
That’s
the
lowest
level
o/n
implieds
have
traded
on
‘CPI
Day’
since
back
in
2021”.

This
is
just
another
evidence
showing
us
that
the
importance
of
inflation
data
is
starting
to
fade
and
the
market’s
focus
has
shifted
towards
growth
and
the
labour
market.
There
are
two
main
reasons
for
such
development:

Central
Bank
Focus

The
first
one
is
that
the
Fed
has
been
mentioning
countless
times
that
they
are
very
focused
on
the
labour
market
and
that
an
unexpected
deterioration
will
call
for
a
rate
cut.
In
fact,
the
only
path
for
interest
rates
at
the
moment
is
downwards.
If
inflation
stays
high,
the
Fed
will
just
keep
rates
steady,
but
if
it
continues
to
ease,
the
Fed
will
cut.

Business
Cycle

The
second
reason
is
tied
to
the
business
cycle.
In
different
parts
of
the
cycle,
we
can
see
the
market
focusing
on
different
things.
For
example,
coming
out
of
a
recession,
nobody
cares
about
inflation
because
there’s
very
little
pressure
on
it
given
that
the
economy
is
recovering
and
there’s
lots
of
unutilised
resources
in
the
economy.

On
the
other
hand,
when
we
are
well
into
an
expansion,
inflation
starts
to
become
the
main
focus
as
the
market
expects
the
central
bank
to
tighten
policy
to
slow
down
the
economy
and
bring
it
back
in
balance.
If
the
central
bank
keeps
conditions
tight
for
too
long
or
it
overtightens,
then
the
economy
could
slip
into
a
recession.

Right
now,
we
are
in
a
“slowing
but
growing”
phase
and
the
Fed
will
need
to
time
lots
of
things
correctly
to
achieve
the
soft
landing.
If
it
fails
to
do
it,
the
next
thing
we
will
be
talking
about
is
a
hard
landing.

EUR/USD prints fresh monthly high as US Dollar declines ahead of US inflation

401769   July 11, 2024 19:15   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  EUR/USD
  rose
  to
  a
  fresh
  one-month
  high
  near
  1.0850
  amid
  weakness
  in
  the
  US
  Dollar
  ahead
  of
  the
  US
  inflation
  data
  for
  June.
• 
  The
  US
  Dollar
  declines
  as
  Fed’s
  Powell
  took
  away
  fears
  of
  inflation
  remaining
  persistent.
• 
  The
  Euro
  capitalizes
  on
  easing
  fears
  of
  a
  widening
  French
  financial
  crisis
  and
  diminishing
  ECB
  rate
  cut
  prospects.

EUR/USD
posts
a
fresh
one-month
high
at
around 
1.0850
in
Thursday’s
European
session.
The
major
currency
pair
strengthens
as
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
is
facing
selling
pressure
due
to
firm
expectations
that
the

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
will
start
reducing
interest
rates
in
September.
The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
edges
lower
to
near
104.90.

Market
speculation
for
Fed
rate
cuts
in
September
increased
as
comments
from
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell,
in
the
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony,
indicated
that
the
central
bank
has
made
quite
a
bit
of
progress
in
inflation
and
that
labor
market
strength
appears
to
have
eased.
Powell
refrained
from
announcing
a
victory
on
inflation
and
said
rate
cuts
would
be
appropriate
when
policymakers
gain
confidence
that
inflation
will
return
to
the
desired
rate
of
2%.

For
meaningful
guidance
on
the
interest
rate

outlook,
investors
await
the
US

Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
which
will
be
published
at
12:30
GMT.
The
CPI
report
is
expected
to
show
that
the
core
inflation,
which
strips
off
volatile
food
and
energy
items,
grew
steadily
by
0.2%
and
3.4%
on
monthly
and
annual
basis,
respectively.
Annual
headline
inflation
is
estimated
to
have
decelerated
to
3.1%
from
May’s
reading
of
3.3%,
while
the
monthly
figure
is
expected
to
have
barely
grown
after
remaining
unchanged
in
May.

A
scenario
in
which
price
pressures
remain
sticky
or
hotter-than-expected
would
force
trades
to
pare
bets
of
rate
cuts
in
September.
On
the
contrary,
soft
numbers
will
be
favorable
for
lowering
borrowing
costs.
A
decline
in
the
US
inflation
would
also
increase
confidence
that
the
disinflation
process
has
resumed
and
high
price
pressures
recorded
in
the
first
quarter
were
mere
a
short-term
blip.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
EUR/USD
rises
as
uncertainty
over ECB’s
more rate
cuts
deepen

• EUR/USD
  moves
  higher
  to
  1.0850
  as
  concerns
  over
  the
  widening
  French
  financial
  crisis
  ease
  as
  Marine
  Le
  Pen’s
  far-right
  National
  Rally
  failed
  to
  maintain
  dominance
  over
  French
  President
  Emmanuel
  Macron’s
  centrist
  alliance
  and
  the
  left-wing
  coalition,
  also
  known
  as
  New
  Popular
  Front,
  led
  by
  Jean-Luc
  Melenchon.
• Economists
  were
  worried
  about
  the
  far
  right
  coming
  to
  power,
  which
  was
  expected
  to
  steer
  fiscal
  expansion.
  Currently,
  the
  centrist
  alliance
  is
  expected
  to
  join
  hands
  with
  the
  left
  wing
  to
  form
  a
  coalition
  government.
• Apart
  from
  diminishing
  fears
  of
  French
  financial
  crisis,
  easing
  expectations
  of
  subsequent
  rate
  cuts
  by
  the
  European
  Central
  Bank
  (ECB)
  have
  also
  brought
  stability
  to
  the
  Euro’s
  appeal.
• Traders
  pare
  bets
  favoring
  ECB’s
  back-to-back
  rate
  cuts
  as
  ECB
  policymakers
  hesitate
  to
  commit
  to
  a
  specific
  rate-cut
  path.
  ECB
  officials
  worry
  that
  an
  aggressive
  approach
  could
  revamp
  price
  pressures
  again.
  However,
  they
  are
  comfortable
  with
  expectations
  of
  more
  rate
  cuts
  this
  year.
• Meanwhile,
  revised
  estimates
  for
  the
  German
  Harmonized
  Index
  of
  Consumer
  Prices
  (HICP)
  confirmed
  that
  price
  pressures
  decelerated
  in
  June.
  Annual
  HICP
  grew
  at
  a
  slower
  pace
  of
  2.5%
  from
  May’s
  reading
  of
  2.8%.

Technical
Analysis:
EUR/USD
moves
toward
1.0900

EUR/USD
strengthens
after
delivering
a
breakout
of
the
Bullish
Flag
formation
in
a
4-hour
timeframe.
A
breakout
of
the
above-mentioned
chart
pattern
results
in
a
continuation
of
the
trend,
which
in
this
case
is
bullish.

The
20-period
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
near
1.0825
continues
to
support
the
Euro
bulls.

The
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
establishes
into
the
bullish
range
of
60.00-80.00,
indicating
that
momentum
has
leaned
to
the
upside.

Going
forward,
the
psychological
figure
of
1.0900
will
be
a
key
target
for
the
Euro
bulls.
On
the
downside,
the
June
19
high
at
around
1.0750
will
be
a
major
support
zone.

USD/JPY stays quiet near 161.50 ahead of US Inflation test

401768   July 11, 2024 19:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  USD/JPY
  hovers
  below
  161.50
  as
  the
  US
  Dollar
  declines
  ahead
  of
  US
  Inflation
  data.
• 
  The
  US
  inflation
  will
  influence
  market
  speculation
  for
  Fed
  rate
  cuts.
• 
  Fears
  of
  Japan’s
  intervention
  have
  intensified.

The

USD/JPY
pair
consolidates
in
a
tight
range
near
161.50
in
Thursday’s
European
session.
The
asset
trades
back
and
forth
as
investors
have
shifted
to
sidelines
ahead
of
the

United
States
(US)
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
data
for
June,
which
will
be
published
at
12:30
GMT.

Economists
expect
that
annual
headline
inflation
decelerated
to
3.1%
from
May’s
reading
of
3.3%.
In
the
same
period,
the
core

CPI,
which
strips
off
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
is
estimated
to
have
grown
steadily
by
3.4%.
On
the
month,
the
headline
inflation
grew
at
a
meager
pace
of
0.1%
after
remaining
unchanged,
with
core
CPI
rising
steadily
by
0.2%.

The
inflation
data
will
significantly
impact
firm
speculation
for
the

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
to
begin
lowering
interest
rates
in
September.
Ahead
of
the
US
Inflation
data,
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
faces
severe
selling
pressure
as
comments
from
Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
in
his
testimony
before
Congress
signaled
that
the
US
economic
growth
has
lost
momentum.

Fed
Powell
said
“Labor
market
conditions
have
cooled
considerably
compared
to
where
they
were
two
years
ago,”
and
added
that
the
US
“is
no
longer
an
overheated
economy.”

Market
sentiment
remains
cautious
amid
uncertainty
ahead
of
US
inflation
data.
S&P
500
futures
have
posted
some
losses
in
European
trading
hours.
The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
hovers
near
a
four-week
low
around
104.85.

Meanwhile,
in
Asia,
the
Japanese
Yen
remains
weak
despite
growing
speculation
of
Japan’s
stealth
intervention.
The
Japanese
Yen
is
close
to
a
multi-decade
low
near
162.00
against
the
US
Dollar
amid
uncertainty
over
room
for
further
policy
tightening
by
the
Bank
of
Japan
(BoJ).

Mexican Peso edges lower ahead of release of Banxico Minutes

401765   July 11, 2024 18:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  The
  Mexican
  Peso
  trades
  lower
  in
  its
  key
  pairs
  ahead
  of
  the
  release
  of
  Banxico’s
  June
  meeting
  Minutes. 
• 
  Uncertainty
  over
  the
  trajectory
  of
  future
  monetary
  policy
  in
  Mexico
  is
  making
  traders
  hesitant
  to
  place
  bets. 
• 
  The
  Peso
  weakens
  the
  most
  against
  the
  Pound
  after
  the
  release
  of
  better-than-expected
  UK
  GDP
  data. 

The
Mexican
Peso
(MXN)
trades
mixed
in
its
key
pairs
on
Thursday
–
rising
versus
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
but
falling
against
the
Pound

Sterling
(GBP)
and
the
Euro
(EUR).
MXN’s
weakness
versus
the
Pound
can
be
attributed
to
the
release
of
better-than-expected
UK
Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
data
for
May,
which
came
out
at
0.4%
month-over-month,
roundly
beating
economist’s
estimates
of
0.2%. 

Traders
are
also
hesitating
ahead
of
the
release
of
the
Minutes
of
the
Bank
of
Mexico’s
(Banxico)
last
policy
meeting.
Uncertainty
regarding
the
trajectory
of
interest
rates
has
increased
after
the
release
of
higher-than-expected
headline
Mexican
inflation
data
for
June.
The
impact
of
the
Peso’s
devaluation
following
the
June
election
and
the
imported
disinflation
thus
anticipated,
are
further
factors
complicating
the
outlook.  

At
the
time
of
writing,
one
US
Dollar
(USD)
buys
17.86
Mexican
Pesos,
EUR/MXN
trades
at
19.37,
and
GBP/MXN
at
23.00.

Mexican
Peso
lower
ahead
of
Banxico
Minutes 

The
Mexican
Peso
is
edging
down
on
Thursday
after
rallying
for
roughly
the
last
nine
days
–
especially
against
the
US
Dollar.
Traders
are
wary
of
placing
bullish
bets
ahead
of
the
release
of
the
Minutes
of
Banxico’s
June
meeting,
scheduled
for
15:00
GMT. 

The
Minutes
ought
to
provide
more
information
on
the
Banxico’s
stance
in
terms
of
the
economy
and
the
direction
of
future
policy.
These,
in
turn,
could
influence
the
Peso.

“We
expect
the
minutes
to
elaborate
on
both
disinflation
forces
and
some
of
the
upside
risks
embedded
in
the
ongoing
MXN
re-adjustment,
and
the
forces
behind
growth
disappointments,”
say
analysts
at
JP
Morgan. 

Banxico’s
board
is
expected
to
acknowledge
the
“underwhelming
growth
dynamics
and
downgrade
its
growth
outlook
—
now
openly
underscoring
downside
risks
to
economic
activity,”
they
added. 

If
accurate,
JP
Morgan’s
preview
suggests
the
Peso
is
at
risk
of
weakening
following
the
release,
since
a
downgrade
in
the
growth

outlook
will
put
more
pressure
on
Banxico
to
cut
interest
rates
despite
the
above-consensus
rise
in
the
June
headline
inflation
data.
Lower
interest
rates
are
negative
for
a
currency
as
they
reduce
foreign
capital
inflows. 

Mixed
reaction
to
inflation
data
causes
uncertainty

The
12-month
inflation
rate
in
June
came
out
at
4.98%,
which
was
higher
than
the
4.84%
expected
by
economists
and
the
4.69%
previously,
according
to
data
from
INEGI.

Banxico
Deputy
Governor
Jonathan
Heath
wrote
on
X
that
June’s
inflation
data
was
“very
worrying.”
Heath
is
seen
as
a
monetary
“hawk”
of
the
Banxico
board
–
in
favor
of
higher
interest
rates
–
similar
to
Deputy
Governor
Irene
Espinosa.

“Headline
inflation
reached
4.98%
in
June,
the
highest
inflation
rate
in
the
last
12
months.
On
the
margin,
the
annual
rate
for
the
second
half
of
June
registered
5.17%.
Very
worrisome,”
wrote
Heath. 

This
comes
after
Heath’s
comments
comparing
his
stance
to
that
of
the
Chairman
of
the

Federal
Reserve,
Jerome
Powell,
in
terms
of
its
data
dependency.
The
effect
of
his
words
was
to
lower
rate-cut
bets
and
further
fuel
the
rally
in
the
Peso. 

Deputy
Governor
of
the
Bank
of
Mexico
Galia
Borja
urged
caution
in
recent
remarks. 

“It’s
prudent
not
to
make
hasty
decisions”
regarding
monetary
policy,
Borja
said,
adding
that
officials
must
be
patient
and
current
policy
was
“undoubtedly
restrictive.”

Slowdown
in
core
inflation
could
be
key
–
Capital
Economics

Whilst
headline
inflation
in
Mexico
rose
in
June,
core
inflation,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
components,
came
out
below
expectations
at
0.22%,
when
economists
had
estimated
0.24%.
Nevertheless,
the
June
reading
was
above
the
0.17%
in
May. 

The
slower
increase
in
core
inflation,
however,
makes
economists
at
Capital
Economics
less
concerned
about
the
rise
in
headline
inflation. 

“Core
inflation
edged
down
last
month.
While
there’s
still
a
lot
of
uncertainty
around
the
next
rate
decision
in
August,
we
think
that
the
easing
of
core
price
pressures,
alongside
the
weak
run
of
activity
data
and
the
rebound
in
the
Peso
leave
an
August
rate
cut
in
play,”
says
Kimberley
Sperrfechter,
Emerging
Markets
Economist
at
Capital
Economics. 

Assuming
Banxico
does
go
ahead
and
cut
interest
rates
in
August,
this
could
have
a
negative
impact
on
the
Peso. 

Technical
Analysis:
USD/MXN
possible
in
ABC
correction

USD/MXN
is
possibly
falling
in
the
wave
C
of
an
ABC
correction
that
started
after
the
June
12
high.
The
short-term
trend
is
bearish,
and
given
“the
trend
is
your
friend”
the
odds
favor
more
downside.  

USD/MXN
Daily
Chart 

USD/MXN
has
broken
support
at
the
17.87
(June
24
low),
however,
the
break
was
not
decisive,
indicating
the
possibility
it
may
be
false
and
the
pair
could
recover. 

USD/MXN
has
also
fallen
to
the
conservative
target
for
wave
C,
which
is
measured
by
taking
the
0.618
Fibonacci
ratio
of
wave
A
as
a
guide
since
C
is
often
equal
to
A
or
a

Fibonacci
ratio
of
it.
Given
that
the
pair
has
reached
this
lesser
target,
there
is
a
further
risk
of
a
recovery
evolving. 

If
USD/MXN
breaks
below
Wednesday’s
low
at
17.76,
however,
it
would
reinvigorate
bears
and
probably
lead
to
a
move
down
to
the
target
at
the
end
of
wave
C,
at
roughly
the
level
of
the
50-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
situated
at
17.60. 

Meanwhile,
the
direction
of
the
medium
and
long-term
trends
remain
in
doubt.

Bitcoin price struggles around $58,500, Donald Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference

401760   July 11, 2024 18:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  Bitcoin
  spot
  ETFs
  received
  the
  third
  consecutive
  day
  of
  inflows
  on
  Wednesday.
• 
  The
  German
  Government’s
  transfer
  of
  10,853
  BTC
  on
  Wednesday
  may
  negatively
  impact
  Bitcoin’s
  price.
• 
  Donald
  Trump
  will
  speak
  at
  the
  Bitcoin
  2024
  conference
  in
  Nashville
  on
  July
  27.
• 
  On-chain
  data
  shows
  that
  small
  Bitcoin
  wallets
  are
  getting
  liquidated
  while
  whales
  and
  sharks
  are
  growing
  in
  number.

Bitcoin
(BTC)
price
edges
up
by
0.5%
on
Thursday,
though
it
struggles
to
break
above
the
weekly
resistance
level
at
around
$58,500,
amid
on-chain
data
indicating
liquidation
among
small
Bitcoin
wallets,
alongside
an
increase
in
the
number
of
whales
and
sharks.
The
German
Government’s
transfer
of
10,853
BTC,
valued
at
$637.67
million,
is
anticipated
to
have
a
potentially
adverse
effect
on
Bitcoin’s
price.
Meanwhile,
Bitcoin
spot
ETFs
saw
inflows
for
the
third
consecutive
day,
totaling
$147.40
million
on
Wednesday.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
Bitcoin
spot
ETF
received
$147.40
million
in
inflows
on
Wednesday

• According
  to
  Coinglass
  data,
  on
  Wednesday,
  US
  spot
  Bitcoin
  ETFs
  saw
  inflows
  for
  the
  third
  straight
  day
  this
  week,
  amounting
  to
  $147.40
  million.
  This
  indicates
  increasing
  investor
  confidence
  and
  may
  predict
  a
  short-term
  rise
  in
  Bitcoin’s
  price.
  Monitoring
  the
  net
  inflow
  data
  of
  these
  ETFs
  is
  important
  for
  grasping
  market
  dynamics
  and
  investor
  sentiment.
  Presently,
  the
  combined
  reserves
  of
  Bitcoin
  held
  by
  the
  11
  US
  spot
  Bitcoin
  ETFs
  amount
  to
  $50.58
  billion.

Bitcoin
Spot
ETF
Net
Inflow
chart

• The
  Bitcoin
  Conference
  Twitter
  account
  announced
  that
  Donald
  Trump,
  the
  45th
  president
  of
  the
  United
  States,
  will
  be
  a
  featured
  speaker
  at
  Bitcoin
  2024
  event,
  the
  world’s
  largest
  Bitcoin
  conference
  in
  Nashville,
  Tennessee,
  from
  July
  25
  to
  July
  27.
  This
  announcement
  comes
  amid
  Trump’s
  recent
  endorsement
  of
  Bitcoin
  (BTC)
  and
  the
  Republican
  party’s
  commitment
  to
  integrating
  the
  cryptocurrency
  into
  their
  platform,
  with
  assurances
  to
  protect
  Bitcoin
  mining
  and
  self-custody.
• Bitcoin
  2024
  aims
  to
  continue
  the
  success
  of
  previous
  conferences
  held
  in
  Miami.
  Bitcoin
  2021
  gained
  attention
  when
  El
  Salvador’s
  President
  Nayib
  Bukele
  declared
  Bitcoin
  as
  legal
  tender.
  Subsequent
  events
  in
  2022
  and
  2023
  featured
  significant
  moments,
  including
  US
  Presidential
  candidate
  Robert
  F.
  Kennedy
  Jr.’s
  supportive
  address
  of
  the
  Bitcoin
  industry.
• As
  Trump
  seeks
  the
  presidency,
  his
  backing
  of
  Bitcoin
  contrasts
  with
  President
  Joe
  Biden’s
  more
  cautious
  stance
  towards
  cryptocurrencies.
  With
  Biden’s
  attendance
  at
  Bitcoin
  2024
  yet
  to
  be
  confirmed,
  the
  event
  may
  underscore
  the
  candidates’
  differing
  approaches
  to
  Bitcoin.

• Sentiment
  data
  for
  10+
  BTC
  wallets
  show
  wallets
  holding
  more
  than
  10
  BTC.
  Bitcoin
  whale
  and
  shark
  wallets
  are
  increasing
  while
  small
  traders
  sell
  off
  their
  bags
  during
  this
  dip
  period.
  July
  has
  seen
  a
  net
  increase
  of
  +261
  wallets
  holding
  at
  least
  10
  BTC,
  which
  should
  give
  traders
  comfort
  in
  a
  long-term
  bullish
  future.

Bitcoin
10+
BTC
holdings
chart

• According
  to
  data
  from
  Lookonchain,
  the
  
  German
  Government
  transferred
  10,853
  BTC,
  valued
  at
  $637.67
  million,
  out
  and
  received
  2,442
  BTC
  worth
  $140.47
  million
  on
  Wednesday.
• The
  8,441
  BTC,
  valued
  at
  $497.2
  million,
  was
  transferred
  from
  its
  wallet
  to
  Cumberland,
  Flow
  Traders,
  Kraken,
  Bitstamp,
  and
  Coinbase.
  This
  significant
  constant
  transfer
  activity
  from
  the
  German
  Government
  may
  have
  triggered
  FUD
  (Fear,
  Uncertainty,
  Doubt)
  among
  traders,
  potentially
  contributing
  to
  a
  decline
  in
  Bitcoin’s
  price. 

• Furthermore,
  as
  per
  Arkham
  Intelligence,
  the
  German
  Government’s
  status
  as
  a
  “Bitcoin
  billionaire”
  ended
  on
  Wednesday,
  with
  13,360
  BTC
  worth
  $784.96
  million
  remaining,
  representing
  26.8%
  of
  the
  Bitcoin
  initially
  seized
  from
  Movie2k.
  Notably,
  
  Blackrock’s
  wallet
  is
  actively
  purchasing
  the
  Bitcoin
  sold
  by
  the
  German
  Government.

Technical
analysis:
BTC
faces
resistance
on
weekly
level
of
around
$58,500

Bitcoin
price
has
faced
resistance
around
the
weekly
resistance
of
$58,375
for
the
last
five
days.
At
the
time
of
writing,
BTC
trades
0.5%
up
at
$57,974
on
Thursday.

Additionally,
BTC
trades
below
a
descending
trendline,
which
is
drawn
from
joining
multiple
swing
high
levels
from
early
June
to
mid-July.

If
BTC
closes
above
the
weekly
resistance
at
the
$58,375
level
and
breaks
above
the
descending
trendline,
it
could
rise
9%
to
revisit
the
daily
resistance
at
$63,956.

Moreover,
the
formation
of
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
chart
on
July
5
contrasts
with
the
Relative
Strength
Index’s
(RSI)
indicator
higher
high
during
the
same
period.
This
development
is
termed
a
bullish
divergence
and
often
leads
to
the
reversal
of
the
trend
or
a
short-term
rally.

BTC/USDT
daily
chart

However,
if
BTC
closes
below
the
$52,266
daily
support
level
and
forms
a
lower
low
in
the
daily
time
frame,
it
could
indicate
that
bearish
sentiment
persists.
Such
a
development
may
trigger
a
4%
decline
in
Bitcoin’s
price
to
revisit
the
February
23 
low
of
$50,521.

Stocks to spin the narrative no matter what

401758   July 11, 2024 18:17   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

In
my
view,
it
is
going
to
be
a
quite
a
task
for
investors
to
pick
up
on
any
fear
from
the
US
CPI
report
later.
The
estimate
shows
that
we
should
get
a
softer
headline
reading,
although
core
annual
inflation
is
estimated
to
remain
steady
as
in
May.

If
it
plays
out
that
way
and

the
details
are
somewhat
similar
to
last
month,
it
will
be
easy
for
investors
to
keep
arguing
that
the
disinflation
process
is
still
playing
out;
albeit
very
gradually.

If
it
doesn’t,
I
reckon
investors
might
react
negatively
at
first
but
will
then
brush
this
aside
as
just
being
a
bump
in
the
road.
That
seems
to
be
the
go
to
story
that
central
banks
are
trying
to
sell
these
days.
And
as
long
as
it
fits
with
the
more
bullish
narrative,
I
foresee
stocks
will
have
no
qualms
with
that.

The
only
way
I
can
imagine
equities
facing
a
significant
dent
is
if
the
main
numbers
are
much
higher
than
anticipated
and
the
details
also
reveal
a
setback
to
last
month’s
report.
In
that
sense,
it’s
a
tall
order
to
really
get
all
of
that
in
line.

Otherwise,
no
matter
what
the
outcome
is,
I
can
imagine
stocks
spinning
the
narrative
to
however
it
pleases.

The
S&P
500
is
already
up
a
little
over
3%
in
July
trading
thus
far.
The
move
higher
also
has

a
strong
seasonal
backing
to
it,
so
that
could
yet
exacerbate
any
continued
bullish
sentiment
in
the
week(s)
ahead.

There
will
definitely
be
some
pushing
and
pulling
before
the
month
is
over.
However,
stocks
certainly
do
look
poised
to
challenge
the
gains
in
February
and
May
at
this
stage.
It’s
all
on
the
shoulders
of
tech
shares
now,
again
and
again.

Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) declined to 0.4% in June from previous 0.5%

401757   July 11, 2024 18:15   FXStreet   Market News  

Ireland HICP (YoY) in line with forecasts (1.5%) in June

401756   July 11, 2024 18:14   FXStreet   Market News  

Dollar a touch softer awaiting the US CPI report later

401755   July 11, 2024 17:41   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

There
is
a
slight
extension
to
the
narrow
ranges
earlier
but
it
is
looking
rather
one-sided.
The
greenback
is
the
one
dragged
lower
now
in
European
morning
trade,
with
EUR/USD
pushing
to
a
one-month
high
of
1.0853.
The
pair
is
now
up
0.2%
on
the
day,
with
other
major
currencies
also
posting
roughly
similar
gains
against
the
dollar.

USD/JPY
is
down
0.1%
to
161.50
while
GBP/USD
is
up
0.2%
to
1.2878,
helped
by
a
better
UK
monthly
GDP
data

here.
Besides
that,
USD/CHF
is
also
down
0.2%
to
0.8980
and
AUD/USD
up
0.2%
to
0.6760
on
the
day.

The
flows
here
are
quite
isolated
though,
with
equities
and
bonds
not
really
hinting
at
much.
S&P
500
futures
remain
tepid,
down
0.1%
on
the
day.
Meanwhile,
10-year
Treasury
yields
are
flat
at
4.280%
currently.

It
looks
to
be
some
positioning
flows
as
we
start
to
draw
closer
to
the
main
event
later
today.
It’s
all
about
US
data
with
the
CPI
report
in
focus
alongside
the
weekly
jobless
claims.

New Zealand: RBNZ dials down its hawkish tone – UOB Group

401754   July 11, 2024 17:40   FXStreet   Market News  

The
Reserve
Bank
of
New
Zealand
(RBNZ)
has
decided
to
leave
its
official
cash
rate
(OCR)
unchanged
at
5.50%
in
Jul
for
an
eighth
straight
meeting.
The
RBNZ’s
tone
was
a
lot
less
hawkish
than
in
May,
UOB
Group
economist
Lee
Sue
Ann
notes.

RBNZ
leaves
its
official
cash
rate
unchanged

“RBNZ
has
decided
to
leave
its
official
cash
rate
(OCR)
unchanged
at
5.50%
in
Jul
for
an
eighth
straight
meeting.
The
decision
earlier
today
(10
Jul)
was
an
interim
review,
and
hence
there
was
no
Monetary
Policy
Statement,
updated
economic
forecasts
nor
press
conference
by
RBNZ
Governor

Adrian
Orr.”

“The
RBNZ’s
tone
was
a
lot
less
hawkish
than
in
May,
when
policymakers
discussed
the
case
to
raise
rates
further
while
signaling
that
a
rate
cut
was
unlikely
before
3Q25.
Instead,
there
was
no
mention
of
a
rate
hike
today,
and
the
RBNZ
highlighted
that
‘restrictive
monetary
policy
has
significantly
reduced
consumer
price
inflation’.”

“We
are
currently
maintaining
our
view
for
the
first
rate
cut
to
occur
in
4Q24,
as
recent

economic
data
shows
the
service
and
manufacturing
sectors
softening
and
business
confidence
falling.
All
eyes
will
now
turn
to
2Q24

CPI
data
on
17
Jul,
while
the
next
monetary
policy
meeting
will
be
on
14
Aug.”

US CPI Preview: Inflation to confirm Fed rate cut prospects

401753   July 11, 2024 17:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  The
  US
  Consumer
  Price
  Index
  is
  forecast
  to
  rise
  3.1%
  YoY
  in
  June,
  at
  a
  softer
  pace
  than
  May’s
  3.3%
  increase.
• 
  Annual
  core
  CPI
  inflation
  is
  expected
  to
  hold
  steady
  at
  3.4%.
• 
  The
  inflation
  data
  could
  confirm
  or
  deny
  a
  Fed
  rate
  cut
  in
  September
  and
  drive
  the
  US
  Dollar
  valuation.

The
Bureau
of
Labor
Statistics
(BLS)
will
publish
the
highly
anticipated
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
inflation
data
from
the

United
States
(US)
for
June
on
Thursday
at
12:30
GMT.

The
US
Dollar
(USD)
braces
for
intense
volatility,
as
any
surprises
from
the
US
inflation
report
could
significantly
impact
the
market’s
pricing
of
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
interest
rate
cut
expectations
in
September.

What
to
expect
in
the
next
CPI
data
report?

Inflation
in
the
US,
as
measured
by
the

CPI,
is
expected
to
increase
at
an
annual
rate
of
3.1%
in
June,
down
from
the
3.3%
rise
reported
in
May.
The
core
CPI
inflation,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
is
seen
holding
steady
at
3.4%
in
the
same
period.

Meanwhile,
the
US
CPI
is
set
to
rise
0.1%
MoM
in
June
after
staying
unchanged
in
May.
Finally,
the
monthly
core
CPI
inflation
is
forecast
to
rise
0.2%
to
match
the
previous
increase.

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)

Chairman
Jerome
Powell
delivered
the
Semi-Annual
Monetary
Policy
Report
and
testified
before
US
Congress
earlier
in
the
week.
In
his
prepared
remarks,
Powell
reiterated
that
it
will
not
be
appropriate
to
cut
the
policy
rate
until
they
gain
greater
confidence
in
inflation
heading
sustainably
toward
2%.
When
asked
about
the
latest
developments
in
the
jobs
market,
“the
most
recent
labor
market
data
sent
a
pretty
clear
signal
that
the
labor
market
has
cooled
considerably,”
he
noted.
In
the
end,
his
remarks
failed
to
move
the
needle
with
respect
to
market
pricing
of
a
Fed
rate
cut
in
September.
According
to
the
CME
FedWatch
Tool,
the
probability
of
the
Fed
leaving
the
policy
rate
unchanged
in
September
stands
at
around
26%,
virtually
unchanged
from
where
it
stood
before
this
event.

Previewing
the
June
inflation
data,
“we
expect
the
June
CPI
report
to
show
that
core
prices
remained
largely
under
control
after
posting
a
surprisingly
soft
0.16%
gain
in
May,”
said
TD
Securities
analysts
in
a
weekly
report.

“Headline
inflation
likely
printed
flat
m/m
again
(-0.01%)
as
energy
prices
continue
to
provide
large
relief.
Note
that
our
unrounded
core
CPI
forecast
at
0.18%
m/m
suggests
larger
risks
for
another
dovish
surprise
to
a
rounded
0.1%
increase,”
analysts
added.

How
could
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
report
affect
EUR/USD?

Investors
remain
optimistic
about
a
Fed
rate
cut
in
September,
but
the
market
positioning
suggests
they
are
not
fully
convinced
yet.
Hence,
a
smaller-than-forecast
increase
in
the
monthly
core
CPI,
a
reading
of
0.1%
or
smaller,
could
confirm
a
policy
pivot
in
September.
In
this
scenario,
the
US
Dollar
could
come
under
selling
pressure
with
the
immediate
reaction.

On
the
other
hand,
an
increase
of
0.3%
or
bigger
could
highlight
a
lack
of
progress
in
disinflation
and
cause
market
participants
to
reassess
the
probability
of
an
interest
rate
reduction
in
September.
In
this
case,
investors
could
price
in
a
widening
policy
gap
between
the
European
Central
Bank
(ECB)
and
the
Fed,
opening
the
door
for
a
sharp
decline
in
EUR/USD
in
the
near
term.

Eren
Sengezer,
European
Session
Lead
Analyst
at

FXStreet,
offers
a
brief
technical

outlook
for
EUR/USD
and
explains:
“EUR/USD
holds
above
the
100-day
and
the
200-day
Simple
Moving
Averages
(SMA)
following
the
pullback
seen
earlier
in
the
week,
reflecting
sellers’
hesitancy.
Additionally,
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
indicator
on
the
daily
chart
holds
above
50
ahead
of
the
US
inflation
data,
indicating
a
slightly
bullish
bias
in
the
short
term.”

“The

Fibonacci
23.6%
retracement
level
of
the
mid-April-June
uptrend
forms
interim
resistance
at
1.0850.
Once
EUR/USD
clears
this
level,
it
could
face
next
resistance
at
1.0900-1.0915
(psychological
level,
June
4
high)
before
targeting
1.1000.
On
the
downside,
technical
sellers
could
take
action
and
force
EUR/USD
to
stretch
lower
if
the
pair
drops
below
1.0800
(100-day
SMA,
200-day
SMA)
and
starts
using
this
level
as
resistance.
In
this
scenario,
1.0750
(20-day
SMA)
could
be
seen
as
the
next
support
before
1.0680
(Fibonacci
78.6%
retracement).”

IEA keeps 2024 demand growth forecast largely steady at 970,000 bpd

401752   July 11, 2024 17:15   FXStreet   Market News  

In
its
monthly oil market
report
published
on
Thursday,
the
International
Energy
Agency
(IEA) maintained
the
2024
global
oil
demand
growth forecast at
970,000
barrels
per
day
(bpd).

Additional
takeaways

2025
global
supply
growth
will
reach
1.8
mln
bpd,
with
US,
Canada,
Guyana
and
Brazil
leading
gains.

Oil
supply
growth
in
2024
to
hit
770,000
bpd,
boosting
oil
supply
to
a
record
103
mln
bpd.

Sees
Q3
call
on
OPEC+
crude
800,000
bpd
higher
than
June
output.

Subpar
economic
growth,
greater
efficiencies
and
vehicle
electrification
to
hit
demand
in
2024,
2025.

China
accounted
for
70%
of
global
demand
gains
in
2023
but
just
around
40%
in
2024
and
2025.

Chinese
consumption
contracted
as
post-pandemic
rebound
has
run
its
course.

Oil
demand
growth
slowed
to
710,000
in
2024,
the
lowest
quarterly
increase
in
over
a
year.

Lowers
2025
oil
demand
growth
outlook
by
50,000
bpd
to
980,000
bpd.

Market
reaction

At
the
time
of
writing,

WTI
is
holding
steady
at
around
$81.50.