Articles

June Cleveland Fed median CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% prior
June Cleveland Fed median CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% prior

June Cleveland Fed median CPI +0.2% vs +0.2% prior

401808   July 11, 2024 23:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Full Article

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Soars past 1.2900 as USD weakens on soft CPI

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Soars past 1.2900 as USD weakens on soft CPI

401806   July 11, 2024 23:14   FXStreet   Market News  


  • The
    GBP/USD
    climbs
    sharply
    as
    US
    inflation
    disappoints;
    UK
    economy
    exceeds
    expectations.

  • Technical
    outlook
    remains
    bullish
    with
    RSI
    near
    overbought,
    signaling
    potential
    for
    further
    gains.

  • Key
    resistance
    levels:
    1.2950,
    1.2995,
    and
    1.3142;
    support
    at
    1.2894,
    1.2860,
    and
    1.2800
    if
    pullback
    occurs.

The
Pound

Sterling

extended
its
gains
on
Thursday
following
better-than-expected
data
from
the
UK
as
the
economy
expanded
above
estimates.
US
inflation
missed
the
mark,
coming
softer
a
headwind
for
the
Greenback.
Therefore,
the
GBP/USD
trades
at
1.2927,
up
0.62%.

GBP/USD
Price
Analysis:
Technical
outlook

From
a
technical
standpoint,
the
GBP/USD
uptrend
remains
intact.
The
pair
hit
a
new
year-to-date
(YTD)
high
after
clearing
the
March
8
high
of
1.2894.

Momentum
favors
buyers
as
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
stands
bullish,
slightly
beneath
overbought
conditions.

Therefore,
if
GBP/USD
pushes
above
1.2950,
that
could
pave
the
way
for
testing
the
July
27,
2023,
peak
of
1.2995,
ahead
of
testing
1.3000.
Further
upside
is
seen
once
cleared
on
July
14,
2023,
at
a
high
of
1.3142.

On
the
flip
side,
if
GBP/USD
tumbles
below
1.2900,
the
pair
could
be
set
for
a
pullback.
The
next
support
would
be
1.2894,
followed
by
the
June
12
high
turned
support
at
1.2860
and
the
1.2800
mark.

GBP/USD
Price
Action

Daily
Chart


British
Pound
PRICE
Today

The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
British
Pound
(GBP)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
British
Pound
was
the
strongest
against
the
US
Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.45% -0.58% -1.95% -0.08% -0.54% -0.59% -0.67%
EUR 0.45%   -0.12% -1.50% 0.37% -0.09% -0.13% -0.22%
GBP 0.58% 0.12%   -1.39% 0.50% 0.03% -0.02% -0.09%
JPY 1.95% 1.50% 1.39%   1.87% 1.42% 1.34% 1.29%
CAD 0.08% -0.37% -0.50% -1.87%   -0.48% -0.51% -0.59%
AUD 0.54% 0.09% -0.03% -1.42% 0.48%   -0.04% -0.12%
NZD 0.59% 0.13% 0.02% -1.34% 0.51% 0.04%   -0.07%
CHF 0.67% 0.22% 0.09% -1.29% 0.59% 0.12% 0.07%  

The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
British
Pound
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
GBP
(base)/USD
(quote).

Full Article

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (56B) in July 5: Actual (65B)
United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (56B) in July 5: Actual (65B)

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above forecasts (56B) in July 5: Actual (65B)

401805   July 11, 2024 23:14   FXStreet   Market News  

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be
investment
advice.

Full Article

Tech stocks hit by a around of profit taking
Tech stocks hit by a around of profit taking

Tech stocks hit by a around of profit taking

401804   July 11, 2024 22:41   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

I
think
this
is
mostly
a
mechanical
move
as
low-rate
trades
get
re-worked.
The
Russell
2000
is
up
a
whopping
2.5%
in
its
best
day
of
the
year
while
the
Nasdaq
is
now
down
nearly
1%.

That
speaks
to
hedges
being
unwound.

Some
of
that
is
that
lower
inflation
will
lead
to
rate
cuts
and
yields
are
down
9-13
bps
across
the
curve.

I
also
worry
that
this
is
as
good
as
it
gets
for
tech.
The
AI
boom
has
led
to
a
massive
run
in
megacap
tech
and
those
stocks
also
act
as
safe
havens
and
insulation
against
high
rates
(because
of
their
low
debt
levels).

We
could
be
shifting
paradigms
here
towards
more
worries
about
growth
and
at
the
same
time
hitting
a
wall
on
AI
spending
and
hype.
Even
if
that’s
not
the
case,
you
can
see
the
temptation
to
take
some
profits
after
a
run
like
this
in
the
Nasdaq:

Nasdaq
daily

Full Article

The RBNZ diverges from the RBA – DBS
The RBNZ diverges from the RBA – DBS

The RBNZ diverges from the RBA – DBS

401803   July 11, 2024 22:40   FXStreet   Market News  


NZD/USD

declined
0.6%
after
the
RBNZ
stating
that
it
expects
inflation
to
return
to
the
1-3%
target
range
in
2H.
The
RBNZ
is
also
diverging
from
the
RBA,
where
markets
still
see
a
risk
of
another
rate
hike
due
to
stubborn
inflation,
DBS
FX
&
Credit
Strategist
Chang
Wei
Liang
notes.

A
RBNZ
rate
cut
in
August
increasingly
possible

“NZD/USD
declined
0.6%
after
the
RBNZ
surprised
markets
by
stating
that
it
expects
inflation
to
return
to
the
1-3%
target
range
in
2H,
adding
that
it
could
temper
monetary
restraint
with
a
decline
in
inflation.
Markets
are
now
pricing
in
a
44%
chance
of
a
rate
cut
in
August.”

“The

RBNZ

is
also
diverging
from
the
RBA,
where
markets
still
see
a
risk
of
another
rate
hike
due
to
stubborn
inflation.
AUD/NZD
has
leapt
towards
1.11,
supported
by
widening
short-term
AUD-NZD
rate
differentials.”

Full Article

Pound Sterling jumps above 1.2900 on soft US Inflation, strong UK GDP growth

Pound Sterling jumps above 1.2900 on soft US Inflation, strong UK GDP growth

401801   July 11, 2024 22:39   FXStreet   Market News  


  • The
    Pound
    Sterling
    performs
    strongly
    on
    faster
    UK
    GDP
    growth
    and
    soft
    US
    Inflation
    data.

  • The
    UK
    economy
    expanded
    at
    a
    faster
    pace
    of
    0.4%
    in
    May,
    beating
    an
    estimate
    of
    0.2%.

  • US
    annual
    headline
    and
    core
    inflation
    decelerated
    in
    June.

The
Pound

Sterling

(GBP)
surges
above
the
round-level
resistance
of
1.2900 against
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
in
Thursday’s
American session.
The
GBP/USD
pair
strengthens
as
the United
States

(US)

Consumer
Price
Index

(CPI)
for
June
showed
that
price
pressures
softened
more
than
expected
in
June.
Annual
headline
and
core
CPI,
which
strips
off
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
decelerated
to
3%
and
3.3%,
respectively.
Monthly
headline
inflation
deflated
by
0.1%,
while
economists
forecasted
growth
at
a
similar
pace.
The
core
CPI
grew
at
a
slower
pace
of
0.1%
from
the
estimates
and
the
prior
release
of
0.2%.

Softer-than-expected
US
inflation
data
has
boosted
expectations
of
early
rate
cuts
by
the Federal
Reserve
 (Fed)
and
has
weighed
heavily
on
the
US
Dollar. The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
weakens
to
June’s
low
near
104.00.

The
Cable
was
already
upbeat
due
to
multiple
tailwinds,
such
as
weakness
in
the
US
Dollar
due
to
firm
speculation
that
the
Fed will
begin
reducing
interest
rates
in
September
and
an
upbeat

outlook

for
the
British
currency
amid
easing
Bank
of
England’s
(BoE)
early
rate
cut
bets
and
strong
United
Kingdom
(UK)
Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP)
report
for
May.
The
expectations
for
Fed
rate
cuts
were
higher
as Fed
Chair
Jerome
Powell
signaled
some
disinflation
progress
in
his
semi-annual
Congressional
testimony
comments.
Powell
refrained
from
announcing
a
victory
over
inflation
but
assured
that
policymakers
are
very
focused
on
the
path
toward price
stability.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
Pound
Sterling
rises
strongly on
robust
UK
GDP
growth

  • The
    Pound
    Sterling
    outperforms
    its
    major
    peers
    on
    Thursday
    as
    the
    UK
    economy
    grew
    at
    a
    faster
    pace
    in
    May
    and
    the
    maintenance
    of
    a
    hawkish
    stance
    by
    BoE
    policymakers.
    UK’s
    Office
    for
    National
    Statistics
    (ONS)
    has
    reported
    that
    the
    economy
    expanded
    strongly
    by
    0.4%
    from
    the
    estimates
    of
    0.2%
    and
    a
    stagnant
    performance
    recorded
    in
    April.
  • The
    UK
    ONS
    also
    showed
    that
    monthly
    Industrial
    and
    Manufacturing
    Production
    grew
    in
    line
    with
    expectations
    after
    contracting
    in
    April,
    while
    annual
    figures
    missed
    estimates.
    Monthly
    Industrial
    and
    Manufacturing
    Production
    rose
    by
    0.2%
    and
    0.4%,
    respectively.
    Annually,
    Industrial
    and
    Manufacturing
    Production
    grew
    at
    a
    slower
    pace
    of
    0.4%
    and
    0.6%,
    respectively.
    The
    factory
    data
    has
    returned
    to
    a
    positive
    trajectory
    after
    contracting
    at
    a
    stronger
    pace
    in
    April,
    suggesting
    a
    strong
    recovery
    in
    the
    domestic
    and
    overall
    demand
    for
    factory
    products.
  • Meanwhile,
    Bank
    of
    England
    (BoE)
    policymakers
    have
    pushed
    back
    expectations
    of
    rate
    cuts
    in
    August.
    On
    Wednesday,
    BoE
    policymaker
    Catherine
    Mann
    warned
    that
    the
    decline
    in
    annual
    headline
    inflation
    to
    the
    2%
    target
    was
    merely
    a
    “touch
    and
    go”.
    Mann
    added
    that
    price
    pressures
    could
    rise
    again
    and
    remain above
    the
    required
    rate
    for
    the
    rest
    of
    the
    year.
    She
    indicated
    that
    her
    stance
    would
    remain
    hawkish
    until
    she
    sees
    a
    sustained
    decline
    in
    service
    inflation
    and
    wage
    growth.
  • This
    week,
    BoE
    policymaker
    Jonathan
    Haskel
    also
    maintained
    hawkish
    guidance
    on
    interest
    rates
    due
    to
    sticky
    wage
    growth.
    Haskel
    said: “I
    would
    rather
    hold
    rates
    until
    there
    is
    more
    certainty
    that
    underlying
    inflationary
    pressures
    have
    subsided
    sustainably”,
    Reuters
    reported.

Pound
Sterling
Price
Today:

British
Pound
PRICE
Today

The
table
below
shows
the
percentage
change
of
British
Pound
(GBP)
against
listed
major
currencies
today.
British
Pound
was
the
strongest
against
the
US
Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.52% -0.62% -1.62% -0.11% -0.58% -0.67% -0.75%
EUR 0.52%   -0.10% -1.11% 0.43% -0.06% -0.13% -0.21%
GBP 0.62% 0.10%   -1.03% 0.54% 0.04% -0.03% -0.10%
JPY 1.62% 1.11% 1.03%   1.60% 1.12% 1.00% 0.97%
CAD 0.11% -0.43% -0.54% -1.60%   -0.51% -0.60% -0.63%
AUD 0.58% 0.06% -0.04% -1.12% 0.51%   -0.08% -0.14%
NZD 0.67% 0.13% 0.03% -1.00% 0.60% 0.08%   -0.06%
CHF 0.75% 0.21% 0.10% -0.97% 0.63% 0.14% 0.06%  

The
heat
map
shows
percentage
changes
of
major
currencies
against
each
other.
The
base
currency
is
picked
from
the
left
column,
while
the
quote
currency
is
picked
from
the
top
row.
For
example,
if
you
pick
the
British
Pound
from
the
left
column
and
move
along
the
horizontal
line
to
the
US
Dollar,
the
percentage
change
displayed
in
the
box
will
represent
GBP
(base)/USD
(quote).

Technical
Analysis:
Pound
Sterling
delivers
inverted
H&S
breakout


The
Pound
Sterling
moves
higher
above
the
round-level
resistance
of
1.2900 against
the
US
Dollar.
The
GBP/USD
pair
is
expected
to
extend
its
upside
after
delivering
a
breakout
of
an inverted
Head
and
Shoulder
(H&S)
formed
on
a
daily
timeframe.
The
neckline
of
the
above-mentioned
chart
pattern
is
plotted
near
1.2850,
and
a
breakout
of
the
H&S
formation
results
in
a
bullish
reversal.

Advancing
20-day
Exponential
Moving
Average
(EMA)
near
1.2747 suggests
that
the
near-term
trend
is
bullish.

The
14-day
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
established
into
the
bullish
range
of
60.00-80.00,
indicating
that
the
momentum
has
leaned
to
the
upside.

Fed
FAQs

Monetary
policy
in
the
US
is
shaped
by
the
Federal
Reserve
(Fed).
The
Fed
has
two
mandates:
to
achieve
price
stability
and
foster
full
employment.
Its
primary
tool
to
achieve
these
goals
is
by
adjusting
interest
rates.
When
prices
are
rising
too
quickly
and
inflation
is
above
the
Fed’s
2%
target,
it
raises
interest
rates,
increasing
borrowing
costs
throughout
the
economy.
This
results
in
a
stronger
US
Dollar
(USD)
as
it
makes
the
US
a
more
attractive
place
for
international
investors
to
park
their
money.
When
inflation
falls
below
2%
or
the
Unemployment
Rate
is
too
high,
the
Fed
may
lower
interest
rates
to
encourage
borrowing,
which
weighs
on
the
Greenback.

The
Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
holds
eight
policy
meetings
a
year,
where
the
Federal
Open
Market
Committee
(FOMC)
assesses
economic
conditions
and
makes
monetary
policy
decisions.
The
FOMC
is
attended
by
twelve
Fed
officials

the
seven
members
of
the
Board
of
Governors,
the
president
of
the
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
New
York,
and
four
of
the
remaining
eleven
regional
Reserve
Bank
presidents,
who
serve
one-year
terms
on
a
rotating
basis.

In
extreme
situations,
the
Federal
Reserve
may
resort
to
a
policy
named
Quantitative
Easing
(QE).
QE
is
the
process
by
which
the
Fed
substantially
increases
the
flow
of
credit
in
a
stuck
financial
system.
It
is
a
non-standard
policy
measure
used
during
crises
or
when
inflation
is
extremely
low.
It
was
the
Fed’s
weapon
of
choice
during
the
Great
Financial
Crisis
in
2008.
It
involves
the
Fed
printing
more
Dollars
and
using
them
to
buy
high
grade
bonds
from
financial
institutions.
QE
usually
weakens
the
US
Dollar.

Quantitative
tightening
(QT)
is
the
reverse
process
of
QE,
whereby
the
Federal
Reserve
stops
buying
bonds
from
financial
institutions
and
does
not
reinvest
the
principal
from
the
bonds
it
holds
maturing,
to
purchase
new
bonds.
It
is
usually
positive
for
the
value
of
the
US
Dollar.

Full Article

Japan intervened in the forex market – report
Japan intervened in the forex market – report

Japan intervened in the forex market – report

401800   July 11, 2024 22:15   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

The

report

cites
a
source.

Atsushi
Mimura

replaced

Masato
Kanda
in
late
June
as
Japan’s
top
currency
diplomat
and
we’ve
been
eagerly
awaiting
a
new
strategy.
Kanda
relied
heavily
on
verbal
intervention
and
then
tried
to
squeeze
the
market
after
it
blew
through
higher
levels.
He
ultimately
spent
$60
billion
in
a
temporarily
successful
intervention
that
knocked
USD/JPY
down
by
800
pips.

It
later
recovered
though
and
I
don’t
think
that
playbook
would
have
been
as
successful
a
second
time.

Enter
Mimura.
The
new
strategy
appears
to
be
to
wait
for
help

this
time
from
US
data

and
go
with
the
momentum.
I’ve
written
about
this
strategy
several
times
and
how
it’s
had
more
success
globally.
You
want
to
swim
with
the
current
and
this
is
an
indication
that
will
be
the
new
policy.

The
slip-up
here

I
think

is
that
they
leaked
it
(although
we
certainly
suspected
it).
I
would
expect
dip
buyers
to
jump
on
this
now
that
it’s
clear
what
happened.

USDJPY
daily

At
the
same
time,
I
now
think
it’s
more-dangerous
to
hold
USD/JPY
longs
through
US
data
releases

particularly
top-tier
data.
Your
risk-reward
is
heavily
skewed
towards
the
downside.
That
could
lead
to
longer-term
specs
abandoning
this
pair
and
help
to
do
the
MoF’s
work.

Ultimately,
the
fundamentals
are
what
they
are
and
that’s
why
USD/JPY
is
near
38–year
highs.
The
only
thing
that
can
change
that
is
the
fundamentals
are
there
is
no
real
momentum
around
higher
rates/inflation
in
Japan.
So
the
key
is
the
US
dollar
side
and
that’s
starting
to
cooperate
but
it’s
a
long
road.

Full Article

Another downside surprise in U.S. June inflation – Rabobank
Another downside surprise in U.S. June inflation – Rabobank

Another downside surprise in U.S. June inflation – Rabobank

401799   July 11, 2024 22:15   FXStreet   Market News  

In
June,
headline
CPI
growth
in
the
U.S.
edged
down
to
3%
from
3.3%
in
May.
That’s
below
consensus
expectations
and
marked
another
downside
surprise
after
May,
Rabobank
macro
strategists
note.

The
odds
are
tilting
towards
a
September
Fed
rate
cut

“That
closely
watched
supercore
measure
posted
a
second
consecutive
outright
decline
(-0.04%
in
May
and
-0.05%
in
June)
to
leave
the
three-month
annualized
basis
down
to
1.3%
in
June.
That’s
the
slowest
reading
since
October
2021
and
just
half
of
the
pre-pandemic
run
rate
of
2.6%.
The
easing
among
core
services
components
was
also
widespread,
with
transport
and
education
services
seeing
monthly
declines
from
May.”

“Energy
CPI
dropped
lower
to
1%
in
June
upon
a
second
monthly
decline
in
gasoline
prices.
Food
CPI
was
little
changed
at
2.2%,
as
slower
reading
for
grocery
CPI
(1.1%)
continued
to
balance
off
still
elevated
inflation
for
dining
out
(4.1%).
The
broader
‘core’
CPI
excluding
food
and
energy
also
dropped
to
3.3%
above
last
year
after
a
smaller
0.1%
monthly
increase
from
May.”

“A
second
U.S.
CPI
downside
in
a
row
in
June
has
added
to
market
odds
for
a
first
rate
cut
from
the

Federal
Reserve

(Fed)
this
September.
After
today’s
CPI
report,
we
think
an
interest
rate
cut
at
the
Fed’s
next
meeting
in
July
is
still
unlikely
but
the
odds
are
tilting
towards
a
September
cut.”

Full Article

AUD/USD posts fresh six-month high near 0.6800 as US Inflation cools further
AUD/USD posts fresh six-month high near 0.6800 as US Inflation cools further

AUD/USD posts fresh six-month high near 0.6800 as US Inflation cools further

401798   July 11, 2024 22:14   FXStreet   Market News  


  • AUD/USD
    jumps
    to
    near
    0.6800
    as
    soft
    US
    inflation
    boosts
    Fed
    rate-cut
    bets.

  • US
    annual
    headline
    and
    core
    inflation
    decelerated
    sharply
    in
    June.

  • The
    RBA
    may
    cut
    interest
    rates
    next
    year.

The

AUD/USD

pair
jumps
close
to
the
crucial
resistance
of
0.6800
in
Thursday’s
American
session.
The
Aussie
asset
strengthens
as
the
US
Dollar
(USD)
plunges
after
the

United
States

(US)
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
report
showed
that
inflationary
pressures
cool
down
again
in
June.
This
has
prompted
expectations
for
the

Federal
Reserve

(Fed)
to
start
reducing
interest
rates
from
the
September
meeting.

The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY),
which
tracks
the
Greenback’s
value
against
six
major
currencies,
tumbles
to
near
104.00.

US
annual
core
inflation,
which
excludes
volatile
food
and
energy
prices,
came
in
lower
at
3.3%
than
estimates
and
May’s
reading
of
3.4%.
In
the
same
period,
the
headline
inflation
decelerated
at
a
faster
pace
to
3.0%
from
expectations
of
3.1%
and
the
former
release
of
3.3%.

On
month,
headline
inflation
deflated
by
0.1%
and
the
core
CPI
grew
at
a
slower
pace
of
0.2%.
Soft
inflation
figures
would
deliver
more
confidence
to
Fed
policymakers
to
discuss
on
an
early
return
to
the
policy
normalization
process.

According
to
the
CME
FedWatch
tool,
30-day
Federal
Fund
Futures
price
data
indicates
that
a
rate-cut
in
September
is
a
done
deal.
The
probability
for
Fed
rate
cuts
has
increased
to
89%
from
74.4%
recorded
a
week
ago.

On
the
Asia-Pacific
front,
growing
speculation
that
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
will
not
cut
interest
rates
this
year
has
kept
the
near-term

outlook

of
the
Australian
Dollar
firm.
The
RBA
would
be
one
of
the
last
to
join
the
global
rate-cut
cycle
as
price
pressures
have
revamped
in
Australia.

Australian
Dollar
FAQs

One
of
the
most
significant
factors
for
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
is
the
level
of
interest
rates
set
by
the
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA).
Because
Australia
is
a
resource-rich
country
another
key
driver
is
the
price
of
its
biggest
export,
Iron
Ore.
The
health
of
the
Chinese
economy,
its
largest
trading
partner,
is
a
factor,
as
well
as
inflation
in
Australia,
its
growth
rate
and
Trade
Balance.
Market
sentiment

whether
investors
are
taking
on
more
risky
assets
(risk-on)
or
seeking
safe-havens
(risk-off)

is
also
a
factor,
with
risk-on
positive
for
AUD.

The
Reserve
Bank
of
Australia
(RBA)
influences
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD)
by
setting
the
level
of
interest
rates
that
Australian
banks
can
lend
to
each
other.
This
influences
the
level
of
interest
rates
in
the
economy
as
a
whole.
The
main
goal
of
the
RBA
is
to
maintain
a
stable
inflation
rate
of
2-3%
by
adjusting
interest
rates
up
or
down.
Relatively
high
interest
rates
compared
to
other
major
central
banks
support
the
AUD,
and
the
opposite
for
relatively
low.
The
RBA
can
also
use
quantitative
easing
and
tightening
to
influence
credit
conditions,
with
the
former
AUD-negative
and
the
latter
AUD-positive.

China
is
Australia’s
largest
trading
partner
so
the
health
of
the
Chinese
economy
is
a
major
influence
on
the
value
of
the
Australian
Dollar
(AUD).
When
the
Chinese
economy
is
doing
well
it
purchases
more
raw
materials,
goods
and
services
from
Australia,
lifting
demand
for
the
AUD,
and
pushing
up
its
value.
The
opposite
is
the
case
when
the
Chinese
economy
is
not
growing
as
fast
as
expected.
Positive
or
negative
surprises
in
Chinese
growth
data,
therefore,
often
have
a
direct
impact
on
the
Australian
Dollar
and
its
pairs.

Iron
Ore
is
Australia’s
largest
export,
accounting
for
$118
billion
a
year
according
to
data
from
2021,
with
China
as
its
primary
destination.
The
price
of
Iron
Ore,
therefore,
can
be
a
driver
of
the
Australian
Dollar.
Generally,
if
the
price
of
Iron
Ore
rises,
AUD
also
goes
up,
as
aggregate
demand
for
the
currency
increases.
The
opposite
is
the
case
if
the
price
of
Iron
Ore
falls.
Higher
Iron
Ore
prices
also
tend
to
result
in
a
greater
likelihood
of
a
positive
Trade
Balance
for
Australia,
which
is
also
positive
of
the
AUD.

The
Trade
Balance,
which
is
the
difference
between
what
a
country
earns
from
its
exports
versus
what
it
pays
for
its
imports,
is
another
factor
that
can
influence
the
value
of
the
Australian
Dollar.
If
Australia
produces
highly
sought
after
exports,
then
its
currency
will
gain
in
value
purely
from
the
surplus
demand
created
from
foreign
buyers
seeking
to
purchase
its
exports
versus
what
it
spends
to
purchase
imports.
Therefore,
a
positive
net
Trade
Balance
strengthens
the
AUD,
with
the
opposite
effect
if
the
Trade
Balance
is
negative.

Full Article

US dollar sinks as inflation cools. USD/JPY plunges
US dollar sinks as inflation cools. USD/JPY plunges

US dollar sinks as inflation cools. USD/JPY plunges

401797   July 11, 2024 21:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

USDJPY
10
mins

USD/JPY
is
plunging
after
the
softer
US
CPI
numbers.
This
could
be
a
squeeze
on
the
very-crowded
long
trade.

The
dollar
is
broadly
weaker
but
in
the
50-100
pips
range
on
most
pairs,
however
this
move
is
now
nearly
300
pips.
That
either
speaks
to
a
real
squeeze
and
possibly
intervention.

Intervening
at
a
time
like
this
would
mark
a
departure
for
the
Japanese
Ministry
of
Finance
but
a
new
currency
czar
was
installed
last
month
and
he
may
be
using
new
tactics.
It’s
often
said
that
currency
intervention
works
best
with
a
tailwind
and
CPI
was
certainly
that.

USDJPY
daily

Full Article

US Dollar nosedives with CPI speeding up its disinflationary pathway

US Dollar nosedives with CPI speeding up its disinflationary pathway

401795   July 11, 2024 21:39   FXStreet   Market News  


  • The
    US
    Dollar
    retreats
    firmly
    after
    soft
    CPI
    release. 

  • The
    Fed
    should
    no
    longer
    be
    concerned
    on
    the
    disinflationary
    trajectory. 

  • The
    US
    Dollar
    index
    falls
    further
    and
    heads
    to
    104.00.

The
US
Dollar
(USD)
is
easing
firmly
on
Thursday
after
the
US

Consumer
Price
Index

(CPI)
for
June
revealed
a
substantial
decline
in
inflation.
Special
remarks
for
the
retail
sales
which
shrank
even
by
0.1%,
meaning
that
US
consumer
is
no
longer
willing
to
pay
current
prices
for
goods
and
is
rather
awaiting
for
lower
prices
before
making
their
purchases.
Add
in
there
a
softer
print
for
housing
and
rent,
and
it
looks
like
the
Fed
measures
put
in
place
are
starting
to
pay
off. 

On
the
economic
front,
most
important
data
for
this
Thursday
is
out
of
the
way,
and
focus
will
now
shift
towards
Friday
on
the
Producer
Price
Index
(PPI)
numbers
for
June.
Meanwhile
markets
will
want
to
hear
from
Fed
officials
that
these
numbers
are
what
they
are
looking
for,
and
should
trigger
a
more
dovish
response
from
the

Fed
.
With
nearly
less
than
two
months
left,
the
initial
rate
cut
for
the
US
looks
to
be
locked
in
for
September.  


Daily
digest
market
movers:
Cuts
are
coming

  •  Let
    us
    walk
    you
    through
    the
    main
    numbers
    that
    came
    in
    this
    Thursday:

    • US
      CPI
      for
      June:

      • Monthly
        headline
        CPI
        fell
        into
        contraction
        from
        +0.1%
        to
        -0.1%
        for
        June. 
      • Monthly
        core
        CPI
        declined
        from
        0.2%
        to
        0.1%.
      • Annual
        headline
        CPI
        fell
        from
        3.3%
        to
        3.0%.
      • Annual
        core
        CPI
        went
        from
        3.4%
        to
        3.3%.
    • Weekly
      Jobless
      Claims
      for
      the
      week
      of
      July
      5:

      • Initial
        Claims
        came
        in
        a
        touch
        lower,
        from
        239.000
        to
        222.000.
      • Continuing
        Claims
        went
        from
        1.856
        million
        to
        1.852
        million. 
  • At
    15:30
    GMT,
    President
    of
    Federal
    Reserve
    Bank
    of
    Atlanta
    Raphael
    Bostic
    participates
    in
    a
    moderated
    conversation
    at
    the
    NCUA’s
    Diversity,
    Equity,
    and
    Inclusion
    Summit
    in
    Minneapolis,
    United
    States.
  • Equity
    markets
    are
    jumping
    higher
    with
    rate
    cuts
    being
    applauded
    in
    both
    Europe
    and
    US
    equity
    indices. 
  • The
    CME
    Fedwatch
    Tool
    is
    broadly
    backing
    a
    rate
    cut
    in
    September
    despite
    recent
    comments
    from
    Fed
    officials.
    The
    odds
    now
    stand
    at
    68.1%
    for
    a
    25-basis-point
    cut.
    A
    rate
    pause
    stands
    at
    a
    28.6%
    chance,
    while
    a
    50-basis-point
    rate
    cut
    has
    a
    slim
    3.3%
    possibility. 
  • The
    US
    10-year
    benchmark
    rate
    trades
    at
    4.19%
    and
    remains
    near
    the
    lower
    level
    for
    the
    week.


US
Dollar
Index
Technical
Analysis:
Look
out
below

The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY)
faces
a
key
pivotal
moment
with
the
US
Consumer
Price
Index
release
for
June.
This
is
the
make-or-break
moment
for
September
rate
cut
prospects,
with
any
uptick
snapping
the
disinflationary
trajectory
that
would
mean
that
September
meeting
is
off
the
table.
So,
expect
markets
to
give
a
more
significant
probability
of
a
further
easing
of
the
DXY
than
a
stronger
US
Dollar. 

On
the
upside,
the
55-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
at
105.14
remains
the
first
resistance.
Should
that
level
be
reclaimed
again,
105.53
and
105.89
are
the
following
nearby
pivotal
levels.
The
red
descending
trend
line
in
the
chart
below
at
around
106.23
and
April’s
peak
at
106.52
could
come
into
play
should
the
Greenback
rally
substantially. 

On
the
downside,
the
risk
of
a
nosedive
move
is
increasing,
with
only
the
double
support
at
104.81,
which
is
the
confluence
of
the
100-day
SMA
and
the
green
ascending
trend
line
from
December
2023,
still
in
place.
Should
that
double
layer
give
way,
the
200-day
SMA
at
104.41
is
the
gatekeeper
that
should
catch
the
DXY
and
avoid
further
declines.
Further
down,
the
correction
could
head
to
104.00
as
an
initial
stage. 


US Dollar Index: Daily Chart


US
Dollar
Index:
Daily
Chart

Interest
rates
FAQs

Full Article

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple make comeback even as large volume BTC, ETH, XRP transfers persist

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple make comeback even as large volume BTC, ETH, XRP transfers persist

401793   July 11, 2024 21:39   FXStreet   Market News  


  • Bitcoin
    trades
    above
    $58,700
    on
    Thursday,
    even
    as
    selling
    pressure
    from
    German
    government
    and
    Mt.Gox
    transfers
    persists. 

  • Ethereum
    surged
    to
    $3,149
    as
    market
    gears
    up
    for
    likely
    ETF
    approval,
    traders
    buy
    the
    rumor
    ahead
    of
    the
    event. 

  • Ripple
    rallied
    to
    $0.45,
    erasing
    losses
    from
    the
    past
    seven
    days
    as
    Brad
    Garlinghouse
    questions
    Democrats’
    stance
    on
    crypto. 

Bitcoin,
Ethereum
and
Ripple
update

  • Bitcoin
    dominance
    climbed
    above
    54%
    on
    July
    11
    as
    BTC
    made
    a
    comeback
    above
    $58,700
    on
    Thursday.
    The
    largest
    asset
    by
    market
    capitalization
    held
    steady
    and
    sustained
    recent
    gains
    despite
    the
    selling
    pressure
    from
    the
    German
    government
    BTC
    transfers
    and
    news
    of
    Mt.Gox
    payback
    to
    creditors.
    BTC
    noted
    a
    consistent
    volume
    of
    large
    transfers
    from
    whales,
    as
    seen
    in
    July
    2024,
    per
    Santiment
    data. Bitcoin,
    Ethereum
    are
    digital
    commodities,
    says
    CFTC
    Chair
    .
  • Ethereum
    trades
    at
    $3,149
    on
    Thursday.
    ETH
    traders
    are
    awaiting
    the
    anticipated
    Securities
    and
    Exchange
    Commission
    (SEC)
    approval
    on
    a
    Spot
    Exchange
    Traded
    Fund
    (ETF)
    product.
    The
    rising
    price
    makes
    it
    likely
    that
    ETH
    traders
    are
    buying
    the
    rumor
    ahead
    of
    the
    event,
    given
    the
    approval
    is
    expected
    by
    market
    participants. Key
    dynamics
    to
    watch
    ahead
    of
    launch
    of
    Ethereum
    ETFs.
  • Ripple
    made
    a
    comeback
    above
    $0.45
    on
    July
    11
    as
    traders
    await
    the
    final
    ruling
    in
    the
    SEC
    vs.
    Ripple
    lawsuit.
    Ripple
    CEO
    Brad
    Garlinghouse
    made
    comments
    on
    the
    Democrats’
    stance
    on
    crypto
    and
    appreciated
    how
    Republicans
    are
    pro-crypto.
    The
    executive
    called
    traders
    to
    “choose
    wisely”
    when
    referring
    to
    the
    upcoming
    Presidential
    election. 

Chart
of
the
day


ONDO


ONDO/USDT
daily
chart 

ONDO
is
trading
around
$1.000
at
the
time
of
writing.
ONDO
is
likely
to
rally
8%
and
extend
gains
to
$1.093,
the
upper
boundary
of
the
Fair
Value
Gap
(FVG),
as
seen
in
the
daily
chart
above. 

The
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
indicator
shows
that
ONDO
has
an
underlying
negative
momentum.
This
is
expected
to
change
as
ONDO
extends
its
gains. 

ONDO
could
find
support
at
the
July
9
low
of
$0.9114. 

Market
updates

  • On-chain
    analyst
    behind
    the
    X
    handle
    @ScamDetective5
    shared
    snapshots
    of
    Ripple’s
    financial
    documents
    and
    said
    that
    it
    is
    likely
    the
    firm’s
    98%
    revenue
    comes
    from
    the
    sale
    of
    XRP. 
  • The
    German
    government
    continues
    to
    transfer
    BTC;
    another
    $138
    million
    in
    Bitcoin
    hit
    exchanges
    on
    Thursday. 
  • Capriole
    Fund’s
    crypto
    speculation
    index
    dipped
    under
    10%,
    which
    means
    there
    is
    potential
    for
    an
    upswing
    in
    Bitcoin,
    per
    a
    CoinDesk
    report. 

Industry
updates 

  • Vitalik
    Buterin
    mentioned
    how
    the
    Ethereum
    ecosystem
    can
    be
    strengthened
    further
    in
    his
    talk
    at
    the
    Ethereum
    Community
    Conference
    (EthCC)
    on
    Wednesday. 
  • Golem,
    an
    ICO
    project
    from
    the
    previous
    crypto
    cycle,
    has
    allegedly
    stopped
    offloading
    Ether
    and
    staked
    40,000
    ETH,
    per
    a
    Lookonchain
    report. 
  • Compound
    Labs
    reported
    that
    the
    project’s
    website
    has
    been
    compromised
    in
    an
    official
    announcement
    on
    X,
    asking
    that
    users
    refrain
    from
    interacting
    with
    the
    platform. 

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