Articles

Ethereum ETF launch could push Ether to new all-time high, on one condition

402017   July 13, 2024 22:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  Ethereum
  analyst
  from
  venture
  capital
  firm
  says
  Spot
  Ethereum
  approval
  could
  come
  as
  early
  as
  this
  week,
  placing
  odds
  at
  72.7%. 
• 
  A
  crypto
  analyst
  predicts
  200%
  gains
  in
  Ether
  price,
  post
  the
  anticipated
  approval
  of
  the
  Spot
  ETF
  by
  the
  Securities
  &
  Exchange
  Commission. 
• 
  Ether
  sustains
  above
  $3,000
  even
  as
  supply
  on
  exchanges
  surges
  to
  2024
  peak. 

Ethereum
(ETH)
traders
are
watching
two
key
events
closely:
the
anticipated
approval
of
the
Spot
Ether
ETF
and
the
activities
of
whales,
the
large
wallet
investors
holding
ETH.

An
analyst
has
predicted
that
the
odds
of
Spot
Ether
ETF
is
72.7%
this
week. 

Ethereum
ETF
launch,
and
on-chain
activity 

Analyst
behind
the
X
handle
@DarkCryptoLord
says
that
the
odds
of
the
SEC
approving
a
Spot
ETH
ETF
is
72.7%
this
week.
ETH
traders
anticipate
the
ETF
approval
to
act
as
a
bullish
catalyst
for
the
altcoin’s
price. 

Eric
Balchunas,
Senior
ETF
analyst
at
Bloomberg
shared
his
thoughts
on
the
Ether
ETF
and
said
it
remains
unclear
why
the
US
financial
regulator
is
taking
so
long. 

Santiment
data
shows
that

Ethereum
supply
on
exchanges
has
climbed
to
its
highest
level
in
2024.
It
is
likely
that
Ether
holders
anticipate
a
rally
in
ETH
price
and
are
waiting
to
take
profits. 

19.23
million
Ether
is
being
held
in
wallets
across
crypto
exchanges
per
Santiment
chart.

Supply
on
exchanges
vs.
ETH
price

Analyst
predicts
200%
gains
in
Ethereum

Analyst
behind
the
X
handle
@follis_
notes
the
similarities
between
Ether
chart
and
Bitcoin’s
prior
to
the
largest
asset
by
market
capitalization
rallying
200%.
If
the
Ether
ETF
garners
as
much
attention
and
interest
from
institutional
investors,
as
Bitcoin
did,
it
is
likely
that
the
altcoin
extends
gains
by
200%. 

Altcoins
related
to
Ethereum,
staking
tokens,
staking
tokens,
Layer
2
scaling
assets
could
extend
gains
alongside
Ether.
Bitcoin’s
post-ETF
gains
reflected
in
assets
like
BRC-20
and
related
assets,
if
history
repeats
this
could
occur
for
Ethereum. 

At
the
time
of
writing,
Ether
trades
at
$3,152
on
Binance. 

Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (5.1%) in June: Actual (4.6%)

402016   July 13, 2024 22:14   FXStreet   Market News  

Canadian June home sales activity fell 9.4%

402015   July 13, 2024 21:39   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

It’s
been
clear
the
Canadian
housing
market
has
been
struggling
in
the
past
couple
months
but
now
we’re
getting
the
hard
data.
The
Canadian
Real
Estate
Association
reports
that
June
sales
fell
9.4%
y/y.

Seller
are
still
mostly
holding
out
for
higher
prices
but
inventories
are
building
—
particularly
in
condos
and
new
builds.
The
CREA
price
index
rose
0.1%
in
June
but
is
down
3.4%
y/y.

The
CREA
(a
realtor
trade
organization)
tried
to
spin
a
seasonal
pickup
in
June
from
May
as
positive
but
given
the
BOC
rate
cut,
I’m
not
buying
it.

Listings
are
up
26%
y/y,
though
they
suggested
the
growth
may
be
slowing.

“The
second
half
of
2024
is
widely
expected
to
see
the
beginnings
of
a
slow
and
gradual
return
of
buyers
into
the
housing
market,”
said
James
Mabey,
Chair
of
CREA.

The
national
average
home
price
was
$696,179
in
June,
At
a
5%
mortgage
and
20%
down,
that
would
put
the
monthly
payment
around
$3100.

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-15.8K to $2.4K

402014   July 13, 2024 21:39   FXStreet   Market News  

US Dollar extends losses as markets continue digesting CPI figure from the US

402013   July 13, 2024 21:39   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  US
  Dollar
  continues
  losing
  ground
  in
  light
  of
  weak
  CPI
  figures
  and
  UoM
  data.
• 
  Markets
  still
  foresee
  a
  September
  rate
  cut.
• 
  Despite
  hot
  PPI
  data,
  US
  Treasury
  yields
  are
  falling,
  diminishing
  allure
  of
  USD.

The
US
Dollar
Index
(DXY)
remains
weak
on
Friday,
sitting
at
April
lows.
This
is
largely
a
response
to
the
soft
US
Consumer
Price
Index
(CPI)
figures
on
Thursday,
combined
with
softer
University
of
Michigan
(UoM)
sentiment
data,
both
supporting
the
prospect
of
a

Federal
Reserve
(Fed)
rate
cut
in
September.

Although
the
market’s
confidence
in
a
pending
rate
cut
is
growing,
Fed
officials
have
maintained
a
careful
approach,
emphasizing
their
dependence
on
rigorous
data
analysis
before
initiating
such
substantial
changes.

Daily
digest
market
movers:
DXY
wanes
despite
rising
PPI

• US
  Producer
  Price
  Index
  (PPI)
  for
  final
  demand
  rose
  to
  2.6%
  YoY
  in
  June,
  an
  increase
  from
  2.2%
  last
  month,
  as
  revealed
  by
  the
  US
  Bureau
  of
  Labor
  Statistics
  (BLS)
  on
  Friday.
  This
  outcome
  exceeded
  market
  expectations
  of
  2.3%.
• Annual
  core
  PPI
  increased
  by
  3%
  during
  the
  same
  period,
  surpassing
  both
  the
  previous
  month’s
  rise
  and
  the
  anticipated
  market
  figure
  of
  2.3%.
• On
  a
  monthly
  basis,
  PPI
  and
  core
  PPI
  escalated
  by
  0.2%
  and
  0.4%,
  respectively.
• Despite
  positive
  PPI
  data,
  soft
  CPI
  figures
  and
  softer
  UoM
  sentiment
  data
  (reported
  at
  66.0
  versus
  the
  forecast
  of
  68.5
  and
  the
  previous
  value
  of
  68.2)
  continue
  to
  bolster
  the
  argument
  for
  a
  September
  rate
  cut.
• CME
  FedWatch
  Tool
  now
  shows
  an
  86%
  probability
  of
  a
  25-basis-point
  cut
  in
  September,
  and
  some
  investors
  bet
  on
  a
  50-basis-point
  cut

DXY
technical
outlook:
Bearish
sentiment
worsens
as
DXY
breaches
200-day
SMA

The
DXY
Index’s
breach
of
its
200-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
has
intensified
the
negative
outlook
for
the
USD,
with

indicators
including
the
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
and
the
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
still
deep
in
a
negative
trajectory.

The
index
now
trades
at
its
lowest
level
since
April,
amplifying
the
bearish
sentiment.
But
after
losing
more
than
0.80%
in
just
two
sessions,
a
slight
upward
correction
may
be
possible.
However,
the
overall
technical

outlook
remains
bearish.

USD/JPY takes a fresh dive

402012   July 13, 2024 21:14   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

USD/JPY
is
back
near
the
post-CPI
lows
in
what
looks
line
another
round
of
intervention
from
Japanese
authorities.

BOJ
data

suggests
Japan
may
have
spent
over
¥3
trillion
on
intervention
yesterday,
or
about
$22
billion,
which
is
more
than
I
would
have
expected
given
the
momentum
they
had
on
their
side.
It
suggests
that
dollar
buyers
don’t
have
weak
hands,
even
up
at
38-year
highs.

Today’s
splash
briefly
took
out
yesterday’s
low
and
we’re
consolidating
around
there
now.

The
main
thing
we’re
trying
to
figure
out
is
the
playbook
here.
From
yesterday’s
move,
it
looked
like
they
were
trying
to
find
a
headline
to
latch
onto
but
today
that’s
not
the
case
and
we
could
simply
be
seeing
daily
efforts
to
knock
the
pair
down.

NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Cross extends losses and falls to lows since mid-June

402010   July 13, 2024 21:14   FXStreet   Market News  

• 
  NZD/JPY
  continued
  its
  significant
  decline
  in
  Friday’s
  session.
• 
  The
  bearish
  activity
  remains
  with
  the
  pair
  below
  the
  crucial
  20-day
  SMA,
  suggesting
  persistent
  control
  by
  the
  bears.
• 
  Indicators
  in
  negative
  terrain
  now
  signal
  a
  bearish
  short-term
  outlook
  for
  the
  pair.

During
Friday’s
trading
session,
the
NZD/JPY
pair
continued
its
substantial
drop
from
Thursday,
recording
a
further
loss
of
0.20%
and
settling
at
96.65.
The
pair
remains
well
below
the
20-day
Simple
Moving
Average
(SMA)
of
97.80,
reinforcing
the
bearish

outlook
in
the
short
term.

The
daily
chart
signals
sustained
negative
conditions.
The
Relative
Strength
Index
(RSI)
improved
slightly
from
Thursday’s
session
but
still
remains
in
the
negative
territory
at
40,
indicating
a
continued
declining
market
momentum.
The
Moving
Average
Convergence
Divergence
(MACD)
concurs
with
this
scenario,
printing
rising
red
bars
indicative
of
rising
selling
activity.

NZD/JPY
daily
chart

Bearing
in
mind
the
bearish
momentum,
immediate
support
levels
lie
at
96.50
96.00,
and
95.50.
Breaking
these
points
would
further
validate
the
bearish
perspective.
On
the
other
hand,
resistance
encounters
are
expected
at
past
support
levels
of
97.00,
97.70
(20-day
SMA),
and
the
critical
level
of
98.00.

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-182K vs ¥-184.2K

402009   July 13, 2024 21:14   FXStreet   Market News  

US stock futures slightly higher, Tesla gets a sell rating

402008   July 13, 2024 20:40   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

Shares
of
Tesla
are
poised
for
a
2%
decline
at
the
open
as
the
rest
of
the
market
wrestles
with
results
from
financials
(mixed
bag
there
with
Citi
+3%
and
JPM
-1.2%).
Spoos
are
up
3
points.

The
decline
in
TSLA
follows
an
8%
drop
yesterday
that
came
on
the
heels
of
a
sensational
11-day
rally.

The
sell
target
from
UBS
is
$197
as
they
say
the
stock
ran
too
much
and
too
soon:

Increasingly
difficult
to
justify
valuation

We
are
downgrading
TSLA
from
Neutral
to
Sell.
TSLA
is
more
than
just
an
auto
company,
and
there
are
some
positive
developments
(e.g.
Energy,
FSD)
that
add
additional
support.
This
is
increasingly
important
as
expectations
for
the
Auto
business
deteriorate.
TSLA
has
always
had
a
premium
attached
to
it
for
other,
future,
growth
opportunities,
but
that
premium
is
difficult
to
justify.
This
premium
has
widened
as
noted
we
believe,
on
an
FSD
narrative.
Although
we
differentiate
between
businesses
of
substantial
value,
at
current
levels,
we
are
still
left
with
a
>$500bn
“stub”
for
that
future
growth
opportunity.
Even
if
this
is
a
5-year
time
horizon,
that
implies
a
5-year
future
value
of
$1T.
And
this
is
just
to
justify
current
levels;
one
would
need
to
see
an
even
larger
opportunity
to
see
upside
from
here.
In
a
higher
interest
rate
environment,
the
cost
of
making
progress,
investment
is
costly,
pace
of
improvement
may
also
be
payoff
is
long.
If
market
exits
a
growth
mindset,
or
AI
diminishes,
this
may
impact
TSLA’s
multiple
and
indeed
it
may
be
that
market
focuses
on
other
new
opportunities
realizable
on
a
longer
time
horizon
(or
not
at
all),
with
the
stock
at
86x
NTM
P/E,
downgrade
to
Sell.

When
ex-auto
contribution
to
price
nears
the
highs,
good
opportunity
to
sell

Our
valuation
attribution
analysis
shows
that
the
market
has
(fairly
consistently)
valued
TSLA’s
core
auto
business
between
$60-$90/share.
The
“other
attribution”
has
been
volatile
but
at
past
peaks
was
a
~$140/share.
With
the
recent
run-up,
this
is
now
~$175/share.
This
is
above
what
we’ve
seen
in
shares
larger
contribution,
and
implies
a
lower
trend
down.
Our
SOTP
view
values
auto
at
~$57,
Energy,
which
shows
recent
strong
improvements
(and
higher
margin)
is
worth
~$18.
We
estimate
FSD/robo-taxi
which
we
think
(see
UBS
Evidence
Lab
FSD
survey
inside),
but
that’s
only
~$93
of
the
more
easily
identifiable
value,
implying
a
premium/future
option
value
that
is
~61%
of
today’s
price.

Where
could
we
be
wrong?
1)
TSLA
price
disconnection
from
fundamentals
has
occurred
in
the
past
and
can
persist
for
a
while.
2)
2Q24
results
may
be
above
expectations,
causing
positive
revisions
to
25/26E
helping
to
sustain
momentum.
3)
Energy-
TSLA
is
demonstrating
strong
growth
in
Storage,
which
should
result
in
upside
to
numbers
over
time,
although
we
believe
TSLA
is
making
headway
in
its
technological
initiatives
and
should
generate
improved
gross
margins,
near-term
challenges
(negatively
impact),
importantly
market
has
always
liked
the
new
vehicle,
as
that
could
change
the
25/26E
numbers.
But
consensus
already
considers
higher
levels,
and
we
believe
the
vehicle
could
pressure
auto
margins.

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions up to $254.8K from previous $241.5K

402007   July 13, 2024 20:39   FXStreet   Market News  

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions: 283.9K vs 279.9K

402006   July 13, 2024 20:39   FXStreet   Market News  

UMich consumer sentiment data coming up next

402005   July 13, 2024 20:15   Forexlive Latest News   Market News  

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Before
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foreign
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carefully
consider
your
investment
objectives,
experience
level,
and
risk
tolerance.
You
could
lose
some
or
all
your
initial
investment;
do
not
invest
money
that
you
cannot
afford
to
lose.
Educate
yourself
on
the
risks
associated
with
foreign
exchange
trading
and
seek
advice
from
an
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financial
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advisor
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