Articles

Biden will be addressing the political violence over the weekend with Trump getting shot at.

Biden unlikely to make market-relevant comments. Except to the extent that the weekend events have boosted the USD, Bitcoin, and hit USTs.

Trump sustained a graze to his ear. Thankfully nothing more serious for him. Sadly, an attendee at his rally was shot and killed. Another death due to political violence accelerating in the US.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Domestic sight deposits CHF 450.3 bn vs CHF 444.4 bn prior

After weeks of decline, Swiss sight deposits look to be stabilising a bit. That might indicate the SNB is staying more on the sidelines in the last two to three weeks. Here’s the trend:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Key economic indicators from China for June 2024.

Industrial Production +5.3% y/y

• expected 5%, prior 5.6%

Retail Sales +2.0% y/y, a substantial miss

• expected 3.3%, prior 3.7%

Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) 3.9% y/y

• expected 3.9%, prior 4%

Unemployment rate 5.0%

• expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%

Q2 GDP 4.7% y/y – big miss

• expected 5.1%, prior 5.3%

Q2 GDP +0.7% q/q – big miss

• expected 1.1%, prior 1.6%

more to come

***

A mixed bag for the June data, but retail sales missing by so much is not going to give much encouragement for demand from the household sector.

No mixed bad for the Q2 economic growth data, big misses for the q/q qnd y/y.

This further increases the focus on the third plenum meeting this week and what measures will come, if any(!) to how economic growth:

• the third plenum of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress is from July 15 to 18

China is aiming for economic growth of “around 5%” for 2024.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China new home prices continue their slump. Despite all the support measures being provided for the sector recovery is not yet in sight.

On a brighter note used home prices dropped 0.85% m/m, slightly slower than the drop in May.

Still to come:

• Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data, also Q2 GDP

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It looks set to be a busy start to the trading week tomorrow morning as the financial world reacts to the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend in the US. Traders expect to see some haven flows hitting markets.

The fallout from the shooting is expected to impact the first few trading days of the week. However, there are also several key macroeconomic data releases due from across the globe, as well as the key interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.

Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Markets are set to be busy for most of the day as they react to the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in the US. The Asian session also sees the release of Chinese GDP and Industrial Production data midway through the day. There is little out in the European session, but we have the Empire State Manufacturing Index data out early in the New York day as well as a scheduled appearance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.

The first two sessions of the trading day have very little on the event calendar, but we have the key Canadian CPI numbers out early in the New York day, which are released alongside the US Retail Sales data.

The calendar kicks in early in the Asian session with the focus on New Zealand for the release of their quarterly CPI data. The London session also sees key inflation numbers with the UK’s CPI and PPI data being released. We have US Building Permits and Industrial Production data due out early in the New York session before we hear from the FOMC’s Christopher Waller later in the day.

The focus will be on Australian markets early in the APAC day with the highly anticipated employment numbers due out from Canberra in the morning. The European session is set to be a busy one for traders. First up, we have employment data out of the UK before the focus moves across the channel for the ECB rate call and press conference. The US session has the usual weekly unemployment claims data as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index number due out.

There is less on the calendar to close out the week, but Retail Sales data out in both the UK and Canada could see some volatility in the Pound and the Loony before we hear from the FOMC’s Williams and Bostic late in the New York day to take us into the weekend.

The post The Week Ahead – Week Commencing 15 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• European Central Bank meeting this week – preview – rate cuts seen September and December
• China plenum meeting against the background of calls for more economic stimulus
• China Stats spokesperson says demand not sufficient
• China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)
• China June new house prices -4.5% y/y (prior -3.9%)
• The PBoC has kept the 1-year MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, as expected
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1313 (vs. estimate at 7.2548)
• Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking Monday, San Francisco’s Daly also
• US President Biden speech is on political violence after shots fired at Trump over weekend
• Bank of England Dhingra says demand is too soft for inflation to rise sharply
• Bitcoin higher alongside the prospects of a second Trump presidency
• Analysts at Fitch say the Fed has “an incentive to start cutting rates sooner than later”
• The prospect of an RBNZ rate cut in 2024 is rising
• UBS are wary of much more weakness ahead for the yen in the near term
• New Zealand services PMI for June 2024: 40.2 (prior 43.0)
• Goldman Sachs expects US equites to be flat for the rest of the year –
• It’s the MLF day in China – No rate cut expected from the People’s Bank of China
• Heads up for a holiday in Asia today – Japanese markets are closed (no UST physical trade)
• Economic calendar Asia Monday, 15 July 2024 – Chinese economic activity data, also Q2 GDP
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 15 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – USD a touch stronger
• Weekly Market Outlook (15-19 July)
• Statement from Former Pres. Trump after assassination attempt
• Former Pres. Trump rushed off stage after apparent shots fired
• Bitcoin technical analysis: Where you can bet on making money (wait for these junctions!)
• Newsquawk Week Ahead: US & UK Retail Sales, Japan, NZ, UK and Canada CPI, and ECB
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 12 Jul: PPI not as friendly as the CPI

Weekend
crypto markets reflected the news of the assassination attempt on
Trump. Bitcoin rose and it continued to do so. Its above US$62400 as
I update. Trump has been courting the votes of the crypto community.
The
political upshot of the weekend is that it has lifted the chance of
Trump winning the presidential election. Trump was already
well-placed given the cognitive and physical decline evident in US
President Biden.

While
the Trump news occurred Saturday evening in the US, which is Sunday
morning in Asia, major markets only opened on Monday. Very early Asia
saw a small gap higher for the US dollar pretty much across the
board. If you are unfamiliar with Asia markets, forex opens many,
many hours before fixed interest, gold, oil, equities (and equity
index futures), and anything else you can think of. Liquidity is
super-thin when its only New Zealand markets open, and then
Australian. It improves as Tokyo comes on line a few hours later, but
it was a holiday in Japan today so the wait was prolonged until
trade began in Singapore and Hong Kong.

The
move higher for the USD has unwound a little as I post. It wasn’t a
large rise for the dollar.

From
China today we had a barrage of information:

• The
  Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate was left unchanged at 2.5%.
  This is strongly suggestive (but not a guarantee) of Loan Prime Rates
  (LPRs) being left unchanged also this month
• Q2
  GDP missed expectations, substantially
• June
  economic activity data were mixed, retail sales were a huge miss

Earlier
in the session we had a dreadful services PMI from New Zealand. June
came in at 40.2, the second month in a row of the lowest level of
activity for the sector for a non-COVID lockdown month since the
survey began in 2007.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here in this post, a miss for both q/q and y/y:

• China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)

The reasons behind relatively slow growth in China are not mysterious:

• protracted
  property downturn
• the property sector is debt-ridden
• household consumption is weak

The poor data will intensify calls for further stimulus measures.

The third plenum is this week:

• China’s plenum meeting in July will focus on the economy

The third plenum is an important meeting of Chinese Communist Party leadership meeting. It starts today, Monday, and will try to balance boosting growth and cutting debt. China is aiming for growth of ‘around’ 5% this. year.

Measures taken to stimulate domestic demand and counter the negative impact of the property crisis include:

• boosted infrastructure investment
• diverting funds into
  high-tech manufacturing

This has shown some benefit in industrial output and the export sector, with exports +8.6% y/y in June (USD terms):

• China trade data dribbling out: YTD USD denominated exports +3.6% y/y, imports +2%

The CPI missed expectations and June and is flirting with deflation again:

• China June 2024 CPI +0.2% y/y (expected +0.4%) and PPI -0.8% y/y (expected -0.8%)

Wholesale/factory deflation persisted in June.

**

USD/CNH update. The USD gained after the weekend political violence in the US, with some unwinding of that move now:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, China’s poor Q2 GDP data is here:

• China June Industrial output +5.3% y/y (expected +5.0%) Retail sales +2.0% (3.3%% exp)

The economic growth data missed both q/q and y/y.

NBS spokesperson:

• 5% GDP growth in h1 ‘hard won’
• Businesses face
  relatively big pressures and key sectors face many risks since this
  year
• China’s economy
  remains key growth engine for the world economy
• Q2 economic growth
  affected by short-term factors such as extreme weather, flooding
• China’s economy
  medium- to long-term improving trend remains unchanged
• China’s economy
  faces increasing external uncertainties and many domestic
  difficulties and challenges in h2
• Property market
  still in process of adjustments

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 July 2024

What happened in the U.S. session?

After easing in May, U.S. PPI – which measures wholesale inflation – unexpectedly accelerated in June on a monthly and annualized basis. Headline PPI rose from 2.4% in the previous month to 2.6% YoY while the core reading increased from 2.6% to 3% YoY – with the headline figure now increasing for the fifth consecutive month while the core notched a third consecutive month of acceleration. Despite the uptick in producer prices, the dollar index (DXY) continued to drift lower as it slid towards the 104-level before ending the week at 104.08.

What does it mean for the Asia Session?

As Asian markets digest the latest U.S. consumer and producer inflation data, it was the failed assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump during a campaign rally on Sunday that dominated news headlines this morning. After declining 1.7% over the last couple of weeks, the DXY gapped up today to open at 104.19 and climbed above 104.30 and is likely to remain edge higher as the day progresses.

The Dollar Index (DXY)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (4:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from DXY today?

The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved modestly but remained under zero with a reading of -6 as manufacturing conditions remained weak, employment continued contracting, and capital spending plans remained flat in the state of New York in June. The estimate of -5.5 for July points to an eighth straight month of weak business conditions.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club of Washington DC where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s mixed inflation data, Powell may communicate a more neutral tone which could provide further lift for the dollar later today.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the seventh meeting in a row.
• The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.
• The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated and in recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective.
• Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low.
• In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
• In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
• In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
• The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
• Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Gold (XAU)

Key news events today

Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 pm GMT)

Fed Chair Powell Speaks (4:00 pm GMT)

What can we expect from Gold today?

The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved modestly but remained under zero with a reading of -6 as manufacturing conditions remained weak, employment continued contracting, and capital spending plans remained flat in the state of New York in June. The estimate of -5.5 for July points to an eighth straight month of weak business conditions.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club of Washington DC where audience questions are expected. Following last week’s mixed inflation data, Powell may communicate a more neutral tone which could provide further lift for the dollar later today.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Australian Dollar (AUD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from AUD today?

The Aussie registered its fifth straight weekly gain as it closed at 0.6783 last Friday. This currency pair gapped lower at the open and was trading around 0.6770 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6750

Resistance: 0.6825

Central Bank Notes:

• The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the ninth pause out of the last ten board meetings.
• Over the year to April, the monthly CPI indicator rose by 3.6% in headline terms, and by 4.1% excluding volatile items and holiday travel, which was similar to its pace in December 2023.
• The central forecasts published in May were for inflation to return to the target range of 2–3% in the second half of 2025 and to the midpoint in 2026 while there have been indications that momentum in economic activity is weak, including slow growth in GDP, a rise in the unemployment rate and slower-than-expected wages growth.
• Inflation is easing but has been doing so more slowly than previously expected and it remains high and the Board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation is sustainably in the target range.
• The path of interest rates that will best ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe remains uncertain and the Board is not ruling anything in or out.
• Next meeting is on 6 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from NZD today?

Following last week’s dovish RBNZ statement, the Kiwi shed nearly 0.5% as it closed at 0.6117 last Friday. This currency pair gapped lower at the open and was trading around 0.6100 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.6070

Resistance: 0.6130

Central Bank Notes:

• The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the eighth meeting in a row and agreed that restrictive monetary policy is reducing domestic demand and consumer price inflation.
• The Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
• The decline in inflation reflects receding domestic pricing pressures, as well as lower inflation for goods and services imported into New Zealand while recent monthly Selected Price Indexes suggest weakening in some of the more volatile inflation components, while survey measures of cost pressures and pricing intentions have continued to decline.
• Non-performing bank loans and corporate insolvencies have increased from low levels in line with declining economic activity while bank credit growth also remains very subdued, in line with weakness in the domestic economy and low business and consumer confidence.
• Next meeting is on 14 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Japanese Yen (JPY)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from JPY today?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) spent $22B in an intervention action last Thursday as it attempted to prop up the yen which has been the weakest G7 currency this year. Despite the intervention measures, the yen still declined nearly 1.8% as USD/JPY wrapped up Friday’s session to close at 157.89. This currency pair gapped slightly higher at the open and was trading around 158.10 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 157.35

Resistance: 159.80

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank considers that the policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. With the price stability target of 2%, it will conduct monetary policy as appropriate, guiding the short-term interest rate as a primary policy tool.
• The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
  1. The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1% while continuing its Japanese government bonds (JGB) purchases in accordance with the decisions made at the March 2024 MPM.
  2. The Bank decided, by an 8-1 majority vote, that it would reduce its purchase amount of JGBs thereafter to ensure that long-term interest rates would be formed more freely in financial markets.
• Underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
• In the second half of the projection period of the April 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target of 2%.
• The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food), has been in the range of 2.0-2.5% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned. Inflation expectations have risen moderately.
• Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part while is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
• Next meeting is on 31 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Euro (EUR)

Key news events today

Industrial Production (9:00 am GMT)

What can we expect from EUR today?

Industrial production in the Euro area has been mixed over the past five months with April’s reading showing a drop of 0.1% MoM. The estimate of -0.9% for June points to a second consecutive month of decline and could potentially add further downward pressure on the Euro.

Central Bank Notes:

• The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points after nine months of holding rates steady.
• Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively, with effect from 12 June 2024.
• Since September 2023, inflation has fallen by more than 2.5% and the inflation outlook has improved markedly while underlying inflation has also eased, reinforcing the signs that price pressures have weakened, and inflation expectations have declined at all horizons.
• At the same time, despite the progress over recent quarters, domestic price pressures remain strong as wage growth is elevated, and inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year – the latest Eurosystem staff projections for both headline and core inflation have been revised up for 2024 and 2025 compared with the March projections.
• Projections now show headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 while economic growth is expected to pick up to 0.9% in 2024, 1.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026.
• The Council also confirmed that it will reduce the Eurosystem’s holdings of securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €7.5 billion per month on average over the second half of the year.
• The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
• Next meeting is on 18 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Weak Bullish

The Swiss Franc (CHF)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CHF today?

As demand for the greenback dropped last week, USD/CHF fell for the second week in a row as it closed at 0.8940 last Friday. This currency pair gapped higher at the open and raced higher towards 0.8980 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 0.8900

Resistance: 0.9000

Central Bank Notes:

• The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, going from 1.50% to 1.25% in June.
• The underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again compared to the previous quarter but inflation had risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, and stood at 1.4% in May.
• The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 1.3% for 2024, 1.1% for 2025 and 1.0% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
• Swiss GDP growth was moderate in the first quarter of 2024 with the services sector continuing to expand, while manufacturing stagnated.
• Growth is likely to remain moderate in Switzerland in the coming quarters as the SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
• Next meeting is on 26 September 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

The Pound (GBP)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from GBP today?

Cable rose almost 1.5% last week as it closed at 1.2992 last Friday. This currency pair gapped lower at the open and was falling towards 1.2960 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.2895

Resistance: 1.3000

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 7-to-2 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
• Two members preferred to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5%, an increase of one from the previous meeting.
• Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May from 3.2% in March, close to the May Monetary Policy Report projection. CPI inflation is expected to rise slightly in the second half of this year, as declines in energy prices last year fall out of the annual comparison.
• Reflecting a margin of slack in the economy, CPI inflation had been projected to be 1.9% in two years’ time and 1.6% in three years.
• UK GDP appears to have grown more strongly than expected during the first half of this year. Business surveys, however, remain consistent with a slower pace of underlying growth, of around 0.25% per quarter.
• UK real GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, 0.2% stronger than had been expected in the May Monetary Policy Report and Bank staff now expect GDP growth of 0.5% in 2024 Q2 as a whole, stronger than the 0.2% rate that had been incorporated in the May Report.
• The MPC remains prepared to adjust monetary policy as warranted by economic data to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably. It will therefore continue to monitor closely indications of persistent inflationary pressures and resilience in the economy as a whole, including a range of measures of the underlying tightness of labour market conditions, wage growth and services price inflation.
• Next meeting is on 1 August 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The Canadian Dollar (CAD)

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from CAD today?

Weak demand for the Loonie caused USD/CAD to register a fifth consecutive week of decline last Friday as it closed at 1.3631. This currency pair gapped higher at the open and was rising towards 1.3660 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 1.3600

Resistance: 1.3670

Central Bank Notes:

• The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
• Canada’s economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR but consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased.
• Inflation remains above the 2% target and shelter price inflation is high but total CPI inflation has declined consistently over the course of this year, and indicators of underlying inflation increasingly point to a sustained easing.
• CPI inflation has eased from 3.4% in December to 2.7% in April while the preferred measures of core inflation have come down from about 3.5% last December to about 2.75% in April and the 3-month rate of core inflation slowed from about 3.5% in December to under 2% in March and April.
• In the labour market, businesses are continuing to hire workers as employment has been growing, but at a slower pace than the working-age population while elevated wage pressures look to be moderating gradually.
• The Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
• Recent data has increased the council’s confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain.
• Next meeting is on 24 July 2024.

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bullish

Oil

Key news events today

No major news events.

What can we expect from Oil today?

After rising for four straight weeks, crude prices declined last week with WTI oil shedding almost 1.2% to close at $82.50 per barrel. Prices remained steady this morning as edged higher towards $82.60 – these are the support and resistance levels for today.

Support: 80.95

Resistance: 84.80

Next 24 Hours Bias

Medium Bearish

The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 15 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Trump Shooting to Hit Markets Today

Global financial markets are poised to react to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump as they open this morning, although early signs indicate a relatively subdued response with the dollar gaining some ground. US stock markets closed the previous week positively, with major indices all posting gains: the Dow rose 0.65%, the S&P increased by 0.57%, and the Nasdaq recovered from Thursday’s losses to finish 0.62% higher. US treasury yields showed mixed movement following stronger-than-expected PPI numbers, diverging as the 2-year yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 4.481%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.202%. Meanwhile, both oil and gold experienced minor declines, with Brent and WTI dropping nearly 0.5% each to close at $85.03 and $82.21, respectively, and gold dipping by just 0.15% to $2,411 per ounce.

Trump Trade to Dominate Coming Trading Sessions

The geopolitical landscape has increasingly influenced investor sentiment in recent months, and the attempted assassination over the weekend has thrust the “Trump Trade” into the spotlight. Market participants now anticipate this theme to dominate upcoming trading sessions, fuelled by heightened speculation about Trump’s potential return to the presidency. Trump’s advocacy for looser fiscal policies and higher tariffs typically results in dollar appreciation and increased treasury yields, trends that gained momentum following the recent debate with Joe Biden. The newswires will be closely monitored in the days ahead, particularly during New York trading hours, with expectations of a strengthening dollar amid rising odds of another Trump administration.

Busy Trading Day to Kick off the Week

The start of the trading week promises to be eventful, with geopolitics expected to drive early market movements today. Attention will shift to China during the Asian trading session as they release their latest economic data, including GDP and industrial production figures. While the European session lacks major economic releases, volatility is anticipated upon the opening of US markets. Investors await the US response to the weekend’s events, alongside the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington DC later in the day.

The post General Market Analysis 15/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US politics is in focus to start the week and we’re now seeing markets gearing towards a Trump victory. He was already odds on to beat Biden if the latter is to stick it through to head into battle in November. But after the failed assassination attempt over the weekend, Trump’s odds have soared much higher.

It might be a kneejerk reaction but it is one that at least provides the market with more certainty on the election outcome.

Back in the day, the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan saw his odds go up by 22 points in the poll.

So, this is markets also responding to that. The dollar is slightly higher alongside yields, though nothing too outstanding. The greenback had been weaker in the week before.

But for Treasury yields, it is a timely bounce as seen above as 10-year yields hold from dropping below the June lows for now.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.