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The Wall Street Journal is gated but if you can access this it paints a dour outlook for China’s economy:

• Growth is slowing and becoming more unbalanced, propped up by exports and a gusher of investment into factories, while much of the rest of the economy languishes.
• Consumers are reining in spending, the housing market is depressed, local governments are swimming in debt and foreign investors are pulling their cash—all at a time when China’s population is rapidly aging.
• Yet expectations are low for Xi to make a significant course correction at a Communist Party conclave this week, as he continues to put measures to enhance China’s economic security above other priorities.

The ‘conclave’ being referred to is the Third Plenum. This comes around every five years, and this one is shaping up as a massive missed opportunity:

• Xi seems more focused on steps to make China less dependent on Western technology

than on economic recovery.

Its an interesting piece if you can access it, link here.

I dunno about all this. While we in the West are, yes, screaming at China to do more for their economy, and in turn us, maybe Xi is on the right track putting China first, for China. Its not as if he is alone on the world stage turning inwards and more insular.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

CEO of the

American Petroleum Institute spoke with Dow Jones/Market Watch, said the oil industry was very much in favour of Trump’s first term agenda

• included “a real focus on increased American
  development of our resources, and I think the opposite has been true
  of the Biden administration”

But tariff proposals for Trump’s second term are worrisome:

• “We want to make sure that our products can get to overseas
  markets without potential tariffs, and, if you put tariffs in place
  in the United States, it’s inevitable that there’s going to be a
  trade war throughout the rest of the world”

—

Earlier post on tariff proposals, 10% on everything and 60% on China:

• US (R) Senator calls on Trump to rethink 60% tariff plan

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman
Sachs lowered its forecast for China’s 2024 growth to 4.9% from 5.0%.

This follows the poor data yesterday:

• GDP
  missed estimates, quite badly,
  for both q/q and y/y

GS offered up some advice the the Chinese government, saying more
easing is needed for the rest of 2024, and further fiscal support and
property/housing market support.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

• Stocks move toward new lows going into the last 101-15 minutes but bounces into the close.
• Republican Pres. nominee Trump picks JD Vance as his VP running mate
• Crude oil futures settle at $81.91
• More from Powell: We don’t want to be too risk averse
• Fed’s Powell: Economy performed really well over the last couple of years
• Goldman Scahs makes the case for a July Fed cut. What’s priced in?
• European equity close: Struggles to start the week
• Gold catches a fresh big in push towards record high
• Bank of Canada business outlook survey highlights growing pessimism
• Classified documents case against Trump dismissed
• Another reason why the Bank of Canada is likely to cut rates this month
• US stocks open with gains. Markets shrug off assassination attempt.
• Kickstart the FX trading day for July 15 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
• Bear steepener is the Trump trade so far
• New York Fed manufacturing index for July -6.6 versus -7.0 estimate
• Canada May wholesale sales -0.8% vs -0.9% expected
• The EUR is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gains fade as markets digest Trump rally shooting
• Forex Expo Dubai 2024 Announces Emirates as Official Airline Partner

The markets largely shrugged off the shocking weekend assassination attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump. Despite the dramatic events, including the start of the Republican National Convention where Trump was officially nominated and selected JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick, the so-called “Trump Trade” was ignited. This trade involves selling long-term bonds, thereby steepening the yield curve, and buying stocks, Bitcoin, and the USD, which saw gains today. The USD emerged as the strongest major currency, while the NZD was the weakest.

The Trump Trade is fundamentally driven by expectations that Trump’s administration would lower regulations, potentially increase oil drilling leading to lower oil prices, advocate for lower interest rates (possibly replacing Fed Chair Powell), and cut taxes. Additionally, his policy stance includes raising tariffs, closing borders, deporting illegal immigrants, exiting NATO, and halting payments to Ukraine. While these moves could benefit businesses, they may also increase inflation and deficits.

In the US debt market, yields rose with the

• 2-year yield at 4.461% (+0.2 basis points),
• 5-year yield at 4.135% (+2.4 basis points),
• 10-year yield at 4.231% (+4.4 basis points), and
• 30-year yield at 4.458% (+5.7 basis points).

The 2-10 year spread increased to -22.9 basis points, its highest (though still negative) since January 25, while the 2-30 year spread is nearly flat.

In the stock market, the Russell 2000 outperformed with a significant gain of 1.80%. The Dow Industrial Average also benefited, closing at a record high of 40,221.72, its first since May 17.

The S&P index closed just below its record at 5,633.92 after reaching a new intraday high of 5,666.94.

The NASDAQ index rose but remains short of its record last Wednesday at 18,647.45.

The day’s final changes showed the

• Dow up by 0.53%,
• S&P by 0.28%, and the
• NASDAQ by 0.40%.

On the fundamental front, the Empire Manufacturing Index came in at -6.6, slightly better than the -7.0 estimate.

Finally,, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Economic Club of Washington, underscored the economy’s strong performance over the past few years, though he noted a slowdown and ongoing progress in reducing inflation. He emphasized that the labor market is no tighter than pre-pandemic levels and highlighted recent positive inflation data. Powell reiterated that the Fed will make decisions based on evolving data, without political influence, and cautioned against delaying action on inflation. Confident in achieving a 2% inflation target without severe economic pain, he downplayed the likelihood of a hard landing scenario. Powell intends to remain in office until May 2026, with the timing of Fed actions dependent on sustained improvements in inflation data. He also noted the eurozone’s different economic position but acknowledged commonalities in global central bank policies. Lastly, Powell expressed long-term concerns about US deficits but stressed that it is not the Fed’s role to advise on fiscal policy.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Vance is joining Trump in the contest for the White House:

• Republican Pres. nominee Trump picks JD Vance as his VP running mate

In April Vance expressed support for a lower USD, citing more competitive exports. This via a reporter at POLITICO:

Keep an eye out folks for clear policy preferences that’ll act as headwinds/tailwinds in the coming months. Obviously Vance’s policy views will not be the only influence on assets such as USD (and related), but there will be impacts.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices pushed lower toward the end of day, but then bounced back over the last 5 minutes to close more comfortably in the black for the day.

The S&P did trade in negative territory in the last 10 minutes of trading at -0.59 points (to 5614.75), but bounced and is closing up 15.87 points

The Nasdaq index traded down to a low for the day at up 1.12 points at 18397.83 – just above unchanged – before bouncing and closing up 74.12 points.

The Dow industrial average also moved into negative territory and was just 3 points from the low from earlier in the day, but moved higher and is closing at a record level at 40,211.73.

The final numbers are showing:

• Dow industrial average closed up at 210.82 points or 0.53% at $40,211.73
• S&P index closed up 15.90 points or 0.28% at 5631.24.
• NASDAQ index closed up 74.12 points or 0.40% 18472.57.

The small-cap Russell 2000 was the biggest gainer with the index rising 38.75 points or 1.80% at 2187.02 – its highest level since January 10.

It was a mixed day for the Magnificent 7:

• Meta Platforms -0.54%.
• Amazon -0.91%.
• Nvidia -0.62%.
• Alphabet, +0.79%.
• Apple, +1.68% (record high on upbeat analyst calls. Morgan Stanley called Apple its top pick).
• Microsoft +0.09%.
• Tesla +1.78%.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a very light calendar for the session ahead.

Daly is unlikely to say anything that counters what Federal Reserve Chair Powell said on Monday:

• More from Powell: We don’t want to be too risk averse
• Fed’s Powell: Economy performed really well over the last couple of years

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The former Pres. Trump, has nominated JD Vnce as his VP running mate.

Vance is a Senator from Ohio. He is 39 years old.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Stocks have rotated lower and trade to new lows for the day.

The S&P index has now moved back below its prior record closing level at 5633.92. The low price just reached 5626.62, and is trying to bounce back higher. The price trades above and below the 5633.92 level over the last few minutes of trading. The current price trades at 5631.08.

The Dow Industrial Average average has also come off its highs. However it still remains above its high closing level of 40003.60 reach back on May 17. The current prices trading up 190 points or 0.48% at 40191.43.

The NASDAQ and is up 53.50 points or 0.29% at 18451.53, after reaching as high as 18641.53. The all-time high closing level reached last Wednesday was at 18647.45. As such the high today could not extend above the previous high close.

• Nvidia shares are down $1.60 or -1.24% at $127.65.
• Super Micro Computers which was announced to enter the NASDAQ 100 after the close on Friday traded as high as $53.34 today at $963.30. Current prices trading down $-17.96 or -1.97% at $892.
• Meta Platforms (-0.17%), Amazon (-1.38%), Microsoft (-0.38%) are also lower
• Google is up 0.63%, and Apple shares are up 1.73%. Tesla is up by $10.93 or 4.32% at $259.95.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF’s trading up $4.89 or 9.56% at $56.03. Traded as high as $56.62 held by the rise in bitcoin today

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

I appreciate a political establishment that’s able to keep a secret just 2.5 hours before the decision is set to be announced.

The odds of J.D. Vance winning jumped last week and that continued today after a motorcade picked him up. However the latest shift is a jump in the odds for Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who jumped to 22% from just 4% hours ago.

Meanwhile, a Reuters report citing sources said Marco Rubio has been told that it won’t be him. Earlier today he was third in betting odds.

Youngkin was co-CEO of The Carlyle Group before entering politics in 2020. He’s 57.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

As Adam pointed out in his earlier post, the race is now focused on three:

• JD Vance (Ohio)
• Doug Burgum (South Dekota)
• Marco Rubio (Florida).

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.