Articles

Harris is the Democratic Party’s candidate for the US Presidential election. She hasn’t been confirmed as the nominee yet but its all but locked in.

• says will take on price gouging
• will being down costs

Inflation is still a focus in the US, despite its decline.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The OPEC+ meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will be held via videoconference on Thursday.

The JMMC’s primary role is to monitor compliance with production agreements among OPEC+ members and assess market conditions.

This includes

• reviewing monthly production levels,
• ensuring that member countries adhere to agreed production cuts or increases,
• and making recommendations to the broader OPEC+ group on adjustments to production targets.

It conducts a review of the oil markets every two months and has the authority to call for a full OPEC+ meeting if it decides one is needed.

Expectations are that the JMMC will not find any reason to call for a full OPEC+ meeting, nor to recommend any change to output policy.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

New Zealand Building Consents slump

• -13.8% m/m (prior -1.7% )
• -24% y/y

Stats NZ today:

• “The number of homes consented in the year ended June 2024 has fallen to levels last seen five years ago”

• “The lower number of working days in June 2024 contributed to the decrease in the number of homes consented in the month”

NZD/USD not a lot changed, around 0.5905

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The period between New York close and Tokyo open is the thinnest period of the 24 hour FX cycle.

USD/JPY has kept up its swings.

OVernight we had leak news:

• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike

Since then there is nothing fresh news nor data wise.

As I post its 7.40am in Japan

USD/JPY 1 minute chart

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A note conveyed via CNBC from Deutsche Bank, analysts there say the average run higher for VIX is highest in Q3 compared with any other quarter.

I wonder if the Bank of Japan doesn’t hike rate today if the SPX will snap back? I’d be a yes on that.

The latest chatter is a 15bp rate hike from the BoJ:

• BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – report
• Another Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under consideration
• Nikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Bank of Japan leaks the possibilty of 15 bps hike

Bank of America expect a hike:

• Bank of America expect a Bank of Japan rate hike today … see USD/JPY to (eventually) 145

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

FX traders are preparing for a busy day today with a plethora of tier 1 macroeconomic data releases due across the trading sessions. First off is the Australian CPI numbers, due out early in the Asian session. This data is a potential game-changer for the Aussie, with the market split on whether the RBA will hike rates as its next move or hold firm before entering an easing cycle, in line with most other major central banks. The quarterly update is also due out today, and any significant deviation from expectations will likely see the Aussie break out of its recent tight range.

Expectations are for the quarterly number to show a 1.0% increase; however, the focus will be on the year-on-year data, which has remained sticky and has some market participants anticipating a rate hike. Expectations here sit at a 3.8% increase, down from last month’s 4% print but still substantially higher than the RBA would like to see. The Aussie has been under pressure against the US dollar since mid-July, and a lower print today could see it break through recent lows near 65 cents and then challenge the yearly low if momentum persists with a stronger greenback. Alternatively, a stronger result could see it jump back into the range and push towards initial resistance at the 200-day moving average near 66 cents. Traders should be aware, however, that we have the FOMC meeting later today, and these moves could be either short-lived or heavily reinforced later in the trading day.

Resistance Levels:

• Resistance 2: 0.6775 – Trendline Resistance
• Resistance 1: 0.6591 – 200-Day Moving Average

Support Levels:

• Support 1: 0.6420 – Trendline Support
• Support 2: 0.6267 – 2024 Low

The post Trade the Aussie Dollar on the CPI Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

Via Twitter:

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Expectations I had seen centred on:

• Headline crude -1.1mn barrels
• Distillates -1.2 mn bbls
• Gasoline -1 mn

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This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API):

• It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies

The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite different. The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA):

• Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agencies
• Whereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week’s levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.
• the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

AMD earnings:

• EPS $0.69 versus $0.68 estimate
• Revenues $5.835 billion versus $5.72 billion
• 23 Gross margin 53.5% versus 53.85% estimate
• sees Q3 revenues at $6.4 billion – $7.0 billion versus $6.62 billion estimate

AMD shares are currently trading up 3.16% in volatile trading

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Starbucks earnings:

• EPS $0.93 versus $0.93 expected
• Revenues $9.11 billion versus 9.24 pain dollars expected

Starbucks CEO says three-part plan is starting to work.

Despite the missed shares are still up 1% in after-hours trading

Pinterest also announced earnings:

• EPS $0.29 versus $0.28 expected
• revenues $853.7 million versus $848.2 million

The company guided lower with Q3 revenues estimated at 885 million – 900 million versus expected 907.7 billion

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow rose with 10 names rising over 1.5% or more led by Travelers with a gain of 3.10%:

• Travelers (TRV): +3.10%
• Goldman Sachs (GS): +2.64%
• JPMorgan (JPM): +2.03%
• McDonald’s (MCD): +1.95%
• Chevron (CVX): +1.90%
• American Express (AXP): +1.84%
• Walt Disney (DIS): +1.80%
• UnitedHealth (UNH): +1.75%
• J&J (JNJ): +1.73%
• Dow (DOW): +1.57%

But the Nasdaq was a different story ahead of some major large- cap stocks ready to release. Today, Microsoft, AMD, Starbucks and Pinterest lead the dump after the close. Tomorrow reporting includes::

• Moderna
• Wayfair
• Amazon
• Apple
• Intel
• Coinbase
• Draft Kings
• Roku
• Block
• Booking Holdings .

Of course the Fed rate decision will also take place tomorrow at 2 PM ET.

The closing levels today are showing:

• Dow Industrial Average average rose 203.40 points or 0.50% at 40743.32
• S&P index fell -27.10 points or -0.50% at 5436.45
• NASDAQ index -222.78 or -1.28% at 17147.42

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 7.80 points or 0.35% at 2243.14

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• BOJ to discuss hike to 0.25% – report
• Another Bank of Japan leak says 0.25% is under consideration
• Nikkei reiterates the worst kept secret. BOJ considering hike to 0.25%
• US JOLTS job openings 8.184M vs 8.000M estimate
• US July consumer confidence 100.3 vs 99.7 expected
• US May CaseShiller 20-city house price index +6.8% y/y vs +6.7% expected
• Japan new to FX diplomat: Only natural solution to yen weakness is to improve economy
• Polls and betting markets show a close race for President again
• Dallas Fed July services sector revenue index 7.7 vs 1.9 prior

Markets:

• Gold up $25 to $2408
• US 10-year yields down 3.5 bps to 4.14%
• WTI crude oil down 70-cents to $75.15
• S&P 500 down 0.5%, extends losses after hours
• JPY leads, GBP lags

More to come

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.