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Former House Speaker (and stock picker extraordinaire), Nancy Pelosi endorses VP Harris for Presidential nominee. This is according to Punchbowl reporter on X.

• My enthusiastic support for camel Harris for president is official, personal, and political
• Politically it makes no mistake: Harris as a woman in politics is brilliantly astute – and I have a full confidence that she will lead us to victory in November

Sen Chuck Schumer next? Hakeem Jeffries (minority leader of the House of Representatives) and former Pres. Obama are also not yet official endorsers of Harris.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Michigan governor Gretchen Witmer is saying that she will not be the VP nominee.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

We are Day 1 of the transition to a new Dem candidate for President after Biden stepped down from his run for President yesterday.

Assuming VP Kamala Harris is the nominee, who might be her VP running mate? That choice will most likely be from one of the key swing states.. Those key states include, Pennsyvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin in the Rust Belt, North Carolina and Georgia in the South and Arizona in the west.

Who are some of the favorites in the early days of the decision?

• Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania, praised for his leadership and electoral success. 2020 Election: Biden 50.0% Trump 48.8%
• Mark Kelly, Arizona Senator, known for his moderate stance and appeal in critical swing states. 2020 election: Biden 49.4% Trump 49.0%
• Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan Governor, popular for her focus on abortion rights and effective governance.2020 Election: Biden 50.6%. Trump 47.8%
• Roy Cooper, NC Goveronor. Two time governor in a key swing state. 2020 Election: Trump 49.9%. Biden 48.6%.

Some of the

• Andy Beshear, Kentucky Governor, Two time elected Governor in a Republican state. He is known for bipartisan cooperation and success in a Republican state. Problem is Trump won in 2016 and 2020. 2020 Election: Trump 62.1% Biden 36.1%, and is likely to win the state again in 2024.
• JB Pritzker, Illinois Governor, a potential financier for the campaign. 2020 Election: Biden took Illinois 57.5% to 40.6% for Trump
• Gavin Newsom, California Governor, though less likely due to geographic and ideological similarities with Harris. Long shot….California remains strong for Dems.

Additional names include Wes Moore, Gina Raimondo, Pete Buttigieg, Roy Cooper, and Tim Walz.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Biden is feeling better
• Legacy of Biden accomplishment is unmatched in modern history

Meanwhile, billionaire Michael Bloomberg is putting support behind the Dems and says: Democrats now have a chance for fresh start, have four weeks to take pulse of the voters before the convention starts.

Initial thoughts that WV Sen. Manchin would make a run toward the White House, has died down. Today he said:

• “I am not running for office,” Manchin told “CBS Mornings” Gayle King.
• Earlier on CNN “This Morning,” he told host Kasie Hunt “people are pushing in that direction” when asked if he was seeking the nomination.

Manchin does feel that Harris is too far left but is not looking to run for the Democratic nominee. That may be the biggest hurdle that Harris will face. She is known as soft on immigration and the border. That does not sit well with voters.

Harris X’ed earlier saying;

Michigan Governor Whitmer has endorsed Harris for Pres, saying she will serve as co-chair of Harris campaign.

Whitmer was elected to serve as Michigan’s 49th Governor in 2018 and then won re-election in 2022, defeating Republican Tudor Dixon by nearly 11 points.

Whitmer is a potential Vice President running mate. Michigan is a key battleground state, along with Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, in the Rust Belt which will make or break the Presidential election. Other key states for 2024 include NC, Georgia, and Arizona.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The major European indices are closing the session with gains. The gains are led by the German DAX which closed up 1.35% on the day.

A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +1.35%
• France CAC, +1.18%
• UK FTSE 100 +0.62%
• Spain’s Ibex +0.59%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.12%

As European traders look to end the trading day, US stocks are still higher but trade at/near session lows:

• Dow Industrial Average average up 12 points or 0.03% at 40298
• S&P index +27.72 points or 0.50% at 5533.03. The low price is at 5531.25
• NASDAQ and up 120 points or 0.68% at 17848. The low price is at 17840.59.

Technically, the S&P has stayed below its 100-hour moving average of 5568.74. The high price today reached 5562.43. Technically, the price remains between its 100-hour moving average above at 5568.75, and it’s 200-hour moving average below at 5505.27 (blue and green lines on the chart below). That is a neutal bias as the buyers and sellers battle it out. It will take a move either above the higher 100 hour MA, or below the 200 hour MA, to increase the bearish bias.

For the Nasdaq index, it extended up back above its 200-hour moving average at 17921.19 at highs today, but has since rotated back below that level. The failed break higher is disappointing. Staying below the 200 hour MA now will keep the seller more in control technically.

VP Harris and endorsed Dem candidate is to speak at an event at the White House.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks are set to open higher with the NASDAQ index leading the way.

Recall from last week, the NASDAQ index had its worst training week since April 15, falling by -3.65%. The S&P index fell by -1.97%, but the rotation sent the Dow industrial average up 0.72%. The Russell 2000 also advanced last week by 1.67% despite a -0.63% decline on Friday.

Today the futures are currently implying:

• Dow Industrial Average average + 70.21 points
• S&P index +35.25 points
• NASDAQ +228.50 points. On Friday the index fell -144.28 points or -0.81%.

Technically for the NASDAQ index, it fell below its 200-hour moving average currently at 17910.26 last week. The closing level was 17726.94.

The closing level from Friday is 183.06 points away from that moving average. With the futures this morning implying a gain of 228, the price should open above that moving average level.

Watch that 19910.26 level today. Staying above could see more momentum on the reversal of the technical bias. The 100-hour moving average comes in at 18202.84 and would be the next upside target.

Last week’s fall took the price below the 200 hour MA for the first time since May 3. Traders had to respect that break technically. Now with the weekend news and price action, traders will be eyeing if the gain can be maintained and shake the bearishness back out of the price action.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines:

• USD/JPY slides lower ahead of European morning trade
• USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Keep an eye on this important resistance
• ECB’s Kažimír: Market pricing of two rate cuts by year-end is not entirely misplaced
• Bundesbank calls for rate cuts to be “carefully considered” as inflation risk persists
• PBOC lowers standing lending facility rates by 10 bps
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 19 July CHF 461.3 bn vs CHF 458.9 bn prior
• Nvidia reportedly working on version of new flagship AI chip just for Chinese market

Markets:

• JPY leads, AUD lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.5%
• US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.219%
• Gold up 0.1% to $2,402.24
• WTI crude down 0.4% to $78.32
• Bitcoin up 0.7% to $67,470

It was a quiet session as the European calendar is looking to embrace the summer lull. There weren’t any key releases – the same case will be for tomorrow as well – so traders had very little to work with.

The Japanese yen saw a nudge higher early on before European markets opened, with USD/JPY falling from 157.30 to a low of 156.28. The pair bounced back slightly after but is still down 0.5% on the day, seen at 156.60 levels now.

There wasn’t any major catalyst for the move as traders are still sorting out their feet following the news over the weekend that Biden has bowed out of the presidential election. 10-year yields in the US are hanging slightly lower, down 2 bps to 4.219% currently.

Besides that, the dollar is keeping steadier elsewhere with light changes overall. The aussie and kiwi are slightly lower though, owing to a softer Chinese yuan. That comes after the PBOC introduced a number of easing measures earlier in the day, weighing on the yuan currency.

In other markets, equities are looking to bounce back after a disappointing showing last week. Tech shares are leading the charge with Nasdaq futures up nearly 1% now. However, we do have key earnings coming up tomorrow after the close with Alphabet (Google) and Tesla set to report.

It’s a brighter start to the new week after the heavy selloff in the second half of last week. But it’s still too early to say that the optimism here is enough to carry stocks until the end of the week.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

In a historic move, President Joe Biden has announced his withdrawal from the presidential re-election race, bringing an end to his five-decade-long political career. With his departure, he has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee to succeed him.

What does Biden’s withdrawal mean for the 2024 election? Here’s our analysis of the potential market reactions and shifts following his announcement.

Will Biden’s Withdrawal Strengthen the Democrats’ Chances in November?

In recent weeks, financial markets have been increasingly factoring in a higher likelihood of Donald Trump securing a second term in November. This sentiment has been fuelled by Joe Biden’s poor performance in the recent debate and the failed assassination attempt last weekend. Many commentators now believe that with Biden out of the race, Kamala Harris will provide a stronger challenge to Donald Trump.

Who Will Take Over?

The longer-term market reaction will largely depend on who is perceived to have a better chance of winning the election and how this is priced in over the next few months. We will experience a few weeks of uncertainty, as the Democratic nominee will not be confirmed until the party’s national convention, scheduled to begin on August 19. Currently, Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, is the hot favourite, benefiting from his personal endorsement and the financial support initially raised for his campaign.

Biden’s Move Was Expected by the Market – But What Happens Now?

There had been growing calls for Joe Biden to step down, and his withdrawal has cast doubt on some of the ‘Trump Trade’ strategies. The initial market reaction has been relatively subdued: gold prices have risen, and there was a brief sell-off in major FX pairs, which has since largely reversed. 

However, stronger reactions are expected once markets in London and New York open, and further US updates emerge. US stocks have been under pressure recently, exacerbated by a global cyber outage on Friday. Biden’s announcement has added fresh uncertainty, potentially pushing major indices lower. Investors will also be watching for earnings reports from Tesla and Alphabet this week, which could significantly influence the market.

What is the ‘Trump Trade’ and Its Future?

The ‘Trump Trade’ refers to market reactions anticipating a second term for Donald Trump, generally expecting looser fiscal policy, higher trade tariffs, and weaker regulations. Despite Trump’s recent comments about a lower dollar, these policies would typically lead to inflationary pressures, higher US yields, and a stronger dollar. If the Democrats are seen as strong contenders against Trump, expect increased market volatility and a potential unwinding of these moves. Conversely, if Trump continues to lead in the polls, volatility may decrease, and the ‘Trump Trade’ could gain momentum.

The post Biden’s Withdrawal: What It Means for the 2024 Election and Market Reactions first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

US stocks will be looking to bounce back after a bit of a hiccup last week. Tech shares saw its worst showing since April with the Nasdaq erasing its monthly gains for July. So far today, we are seeing a calmer mood but it is still early in the day. S&P 500 futures are up some 0.4% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.6% currently.

For the week itself, all eyes will be on earnings releases for two of the Magnificent Seven.

Both Alphabet (Google) and Tesla will be reporting after hours tomorrow and they will be key ones to watch in determining the mood music for broader market sentiment this week.

After last week’s drop, the S&P 500 is still up 0.8% on the month as it hopes to keep up its July hot streak since 2015.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The post Ex-Dividend 23/07/2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.

• Domestic sight deposits CHF 452.9 bn vs CHF 450.3 bn prior

Swiss sight deposits rose slightly in the past week but is keeping thereabouts within the range in the weeks before.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.