403303 July 31, 2024 14:00 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 31 July 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked its key policy rate by 15 basis points, raising it from 0.1% to 0.25% this morning while indicating that it will reduce its bond purchases in half in the coming two years as part of its bond tapering plan. Monthly purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will be reduced to ¥3T by the first quarter of 2026, compared to the current pace of ¥6T. The BoJ also projected that consumer inflation would be 2.1% for fiscal 2025 and 1.9% for fiscal 2026, an indication of consumer prices achieving its target of 2% on a sustained basis.
The yen experienced wild swings in the immediate aftermath of this news release with USD/JPY initially diving as low as 151.60 before reversing sharply to surge towards 154 before retreating away from this level to tumble under 153 – this currency pair was trading around 152.50 by midday Asia.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Inflation in the Euro Area has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. However, the latest readings remain above the ECB’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, the flash estimates for July point to another month of marginal moderation – should inflation ease more than originally anticipated; the Euro could come under intense selling pressures as European markets get under way.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
June’s ADP report showed job creation in the U.S slowed down for the third month in a row, with 150K jobs being added to the labour market which was also lower than the 12-month average of 162K. July’s estimate points to another month of ‘softer’ job gains with 147K jobs. Should the ADP report miss the market estimates, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar.
After which, markets will be awaiting the highly anticipated outcome of July’s FOMC meeting. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Funds rates on hold at 5.25% to 5.50% once more, Chairman Jerome Powell could very well prepare market participants by giving a clear hint for the first rate cut at September’s meeting. Should Powell communicate a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, we can expect the dollar to come under intense selling pressures later today.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
June’s ADP report showed job creation in the U.S slowed down for the third month in a row, with 150K jobs being added to the labour market which was also lower than the 12-month average of 162K. July’s estimate points to another month of ‘softer’ job gains with 147K jobs. Should the ADP report miss the market estimates, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar.
After which, markets will be awaiting the highly anticipated outcome of July’s FOMC meeting. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Funds rates on hold at 5.25% to 5.50% once more, Chairman Jerome Powell could very well prepare market participants by giving a clear hint for the first rate cut at September’s meeting. Should Powell communicate a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, we can expect the dollar to come under intense selling pressures later today. Whatever the outcome, it is bound to be an extremely volatile period for gold.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
CPI (1:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
Although inflation in Australia has eased lower over the past five quarters, it still remains above the RBA’s target of 2 to 3%. Headline inflation eased to 3.6% YoY in the first quarter of this year but on a monthly basis, prices have increased over the past three months – rising from 3.4% in February to 4.0% YoY in May. Should inflationary pressures remain persistently sticky, it could provide a boost for the Aussie this morning.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi edged higher towards 0.5900 yesterday before finally climbing above this level overnight. This currency pair was trading around 0.5910 at the beginning of the Asia session and could continue its upward ascend as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.5980
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (Tentative)
BoJ Press Conference (Tentative)
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiked its key policy rate by 15 basis points, raising it from 0.1% to 0.25% this morning while indicating that it will reduce its bond purchases in half in the coming two years as part of its bond tapering plan. Monthly purchases of the Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) will be reduced to ¥3T by the first quarter of 2026, compared to the current pace of ¥6T. The BoJ also projected that consumer inflation would be 2.1% for fiscal 2025 and 1.9% for fiscal 2026, an indication of consumer prices achieving its target of 2% on a sustained basis.
The yen experienced wild swings in the immediate aftermath of this news release with USD/JPY initially diving as low as 151.60 before reversing sharply to surge towards 154 before retreating away from this level to tumble under 153 – this currency pair was trading around 152.50 by midday Asia.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
CPI (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
Inflation in the Euro Area has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. However, the latest readings remain above the ECB’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, the flash estimates for July point to another month of marginal moderation – should inflation ease more than originally anticipated; the Euro could come under intense selling pressures as European markets get under way.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the dollar waned overnight as USD/CHF retreated from 0.8870 to tumble quite strongly. This currency pair was sliding lower towards 0.8800 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8780
Resistance: 0.8875
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Demand for the dollar waned overnight as Cable reversed from an overnight high of 1.2865 to dip under 1.2850 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 1.2845 as Asian markets came online and could edge higher as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2775
Resistance: 1.2890
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
Monthly economic output in Canada has averaged around 0.22% in 2024, much higher than the second half of last year. However, May’s estimate of a 0.1% growth points to a relatively low reading based on the recent data. Should the monthly GDP result surprise to the upside, it could bolster the Loonie later today which would in turn rein in the recent rise in USD/CAD.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
The API stockpile experienced a higher-than-anticipated drawdown for the fifth straight week but that was not enough to put a floor under oil prices. WTI oil has already shed 2.4% over the last couple of days as it dropped under $76 per barrel. Weak demand from China continues to worry traders while OPEC+ appears to stick to its plans to increase production levels – both events dampening oil prices. The EIA inventories will be released later today but even another large drawdown is unlikely to stabilize this commodity.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 31 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403302 July 31, 2024 13:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
This comes after the more positive rotation from tech to value shares in Wall Street yesterday. While the Nasdaq ended lower by 1.3%, the Dow ended higher by 0.5%. And the rebound in tech shares this morning is arguably also helping with the overall mood in broader markets. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% with Nasdaq futures up 1.3% currently.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403301 July 31, 2024 13:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The increase on the month owes much to a jump in energy prices. If yo u strip that out, import prices were actually flat in June.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403300 July 31, 2024 12:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The Australia Q2 CPI report and BOJ monetary policy decision are already some big events for traders to work with. But there’s still much more to follow in the sessions ahead. In Europe, there will be the Eurozone July flash CPI report although it might not be that big a deal.
But in US trading later, we’ll be getting the ADP employment data and later on the Fed policy decision as well. The latter of course is the main event to watch on the day.
Besides that, there’s also month-end flows to be wary about especially when we get closer to the London fix later.
And then, there’s also key earnings releases still to come especially with Meta reporting after the close. For now, US futures are calmer with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq futures up 0.8%. That comes as Microsoft reports a beat on earnings but its slow cloud growth suggests that returns from their AI investment may take longer to pan out.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403299 July 31, 2024 12:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Looking at the details:
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403298 July 31, 2024 12:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The Japanese yen and Australian dollar have been the main movers in Asia Pacific trading today. The former owes to the BOJ decision, with the central bank hiking rates to 0.25% as expected after yesterday’s leak. Meanwhile, the latter owes to a much softer inflation report earlier – which tempers with expectations for a rate hike next month.
Looking to European trading today, inflation data is in focus but it might not offer too much for the euro to work with. The disinflation process continues to face bumps in the road and July is likely just that. The German stats office yesterday noted that core annual inflation in July is expected to be at 2.9% – similar to June.
As for the Eurozone as a whole, core annual inflation was seen at 2.9% in June itself. It is estimated to fall to 2.8% in July based on the readings later. As the trend stays the course and the economy softens in Q3, it does incentivise the ECB to go with a rate cut after the summer.
However, they certainly would like more progress on the inflation front surely. That considering prices are still holding well above their 2% target for now.
In terms of market pricing, traders are still seeing a ~68% probability of a rate cut in September and that is unchanged from yesterday.
0600 GMT – Germany June import price index0645 GMT – France July preliminary CPI figures0755 GMT – Germany July unemployment change, rate0800 GMT – Switzerland July UBS investor sentiment0900 GMT – Eurozone July preliminary CPI figures0900 GMT – Italy July preliminary CPI figures1100 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 26 July
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403297 July 31, 2024 11:39 ICMarkets Market News
Potential Direction: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 104.54
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 104.04
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 104.81
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0833
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.0769
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.0870
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 165.38
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 162.67
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 167.55
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8428
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8395
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8457
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2858
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2776
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2937
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 195.98
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 193.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing low support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 199.41
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8875
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8800
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8930
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Neutral
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially fluctuate between the 1st resistance and 1st support level.
1st support: 152.16
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 154.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3838
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a significant area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st support: 1.3796
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area that could halt any further downward movement. The presence of a bullish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to this support zone.
1st resistance: 1.3888
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a potential area that could halt any further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6465
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a minor rebound.
1st support: 0.6397
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing-low support, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.6569
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.5918
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.
1st support: 0.5852
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, suggesting a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 0.5949
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to pull back towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 40,832.42
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 40,476.55
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 41,352.92
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the all-time high, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could rise towards the pivot and potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,506.60
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance, indicating an area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 18,251.20
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 18,593.70
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection level, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,492.99
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify to resume the downtrend. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.
1st support: 5,404.64
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where price could find strong support.
1st resistance: 5,578.22
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a critical area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price is falling towards the pivot and could potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 63,507.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st support: 59,262.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st resistance: 69,742.96
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Neutral
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,223.44
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st Support: 3,122.34
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support that aligns close to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area that could halt further downward movement.
1st Resistance: 3,377.15
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures could intensify.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bearish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reversal off this level to fall towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 77.44
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 75.45
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 78.67
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement. The presence of a bearish Ichimoku Cloud adds further significance to the downward momentum.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 2424.34
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 2391.29
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2451.93
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
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The post Wednesday 31st July 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403296 July 31, 2024 11:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 July 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
Job vacancies in the U.S. have moderated significantly lower since mid-2022 to highlight the slowdown in hiring practices by large corporations as well as small- and medium-sized businesses. The JOLTS job openings showed 8.18M vacancies in June, edging lower from 8.23M in May. The latest figures were little changed from the previous month but it continues to signal subdued hiring by companies.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index edged slightly higher from 97.8 in June to 100.3 in July as overall confidence levels ticked up but consumers’ assessment of current business conditions was tempered while appraisal of the labour market deteriorated. Expectations for future income improved slightly, but consumers remained generally negative about business and employment conditions ahead. The dollar index (DXY) hit an overnight high of 104.79 before the above-mentioned data caused it to reverse course and fall under 104.50 by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Following the recent intervention measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in mid-July, the yen has strengthened significantly causing USD/JPY to dive as low as 151.94 last Thursday. Should the BoJ raise its key policy rate from the current level of 0.1%, it could boost the yen even further. However, the press conference by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will be equally important – should he continue to maintain a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, the yen could face intense selling pressures and potentially cause USD/JPY to surge.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
June’s ADP report showed job creation in the U.S slowed down for the third month in a row, with 150K jobs being added to the labour market which was also lower than the 12-month average of 162K. July’s estimate points to another month of ‘softer’ job gains with 147K jobs. Should the ADP report miss the market estimates, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar.
After which, markets will be awaiting the highly anticipated outcome of July’s FOMC meeting. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Funds rates on hold at 5.25% to 5.50% once more, Chairman Jerome Powell could very well prepare market participants by giving a clear hint for the first rate cut at September’s meeting. Should Powell communicate a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, we can expect the dollar to come under intense selling pressures later today.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
ADP Employment Report (12:15 pm GMT)
FOMC Statement (6:00 pm GMT)
FOMC Press Conference (6:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
June’s ADP report showed job creation in the U.S slowed down for the third month in a row, with 150K jobs being added to the labour market which was also lower than the 12-month average of 162K. July’s estimate points to another month of ‘softer’ job gains with 147K jobs. Should the ADP report miss the market estimates, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar.
After which, markets will be awaiting the highly anticipated outcome of July’s FOMC meeting. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its Fed Funds rates on hold at 5.25% to 5.50% once more, Chairman Jerome Powell could very well prepare market participants by giving a clear hint for the first rate cut at September’s meeting. Should Powell communicate a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, we can expect the dollar to come under intense selling pressures later today. Whatever the outcome, it is bound to be an extremely volatile period for gold.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
CPI (1:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
Although inflation in Australia has eased lower over the past five quarters, it still remains above the RBA’s target of 2 to 3%. Headline inflation eased to 3.6% YoY in the first quarter of this year but on a monthly basis, prices have increased over the past three months – rising from 3.4% in February to 4.0% YoY in May. Should inflationary pressures remain persistently sticky, it could provide a boost for the Aussie this morning.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi edged higher towards 0.5900 yesterday before finally climbing above this level overnight. This currency pair was trading around 0.5910 at the beginning of the Asia session and could continue its upward ascend as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.5980
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (Tentative)
BoJ Press Conference (Tentative)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Following the recent intervention measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in mid-July, the yen has strengthened significantly causing USD/JPY to dive as low as 151.94 last Thursday. Should the BoJ raise its key policy rate from the current level of 0.1%, it could boost the yen even further. However, the press conference by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will be equally important – should he continue to maintain a dovish outlook on future monetary policy action, the yen could face intense selling pressures and potentially cause USD/JPY to surge.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
CPI (9:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
Inflation in the Euro Area has eased significantly over the past ten months with headline and core CPI slowing to 2.5% and 2.9% respectively YoY in June. However, the latest readings remain above the ECB’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, the flash estimates for July point to another month of marginal moderation – should inflation ease more than originally anticipated; the Euro could come under intense selling pressures as European markets get under way.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the dollar waned overnight as USD/CHF retreated from 0.8870 to tumble quite strongly. This currency pair was sliding lower towards 0.8800 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8780
Resistance: 0.8875
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Demand for the dollar waned overnight as Cable reversed from an overnight high of 1.2865 to dip under 1.2850 by the end of the U.S. session. This currency pair was trading around 1.2845 as Asian markets came online and could edge higher as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2775
Resistance: 1.2890
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
Monthly economic output in Canada has averaged around 0.22% in 2024, much higher than the second half of last year. However, May’s estimate of a 0.1% growth points to a relatively low reading based on the recent data. Should the monthly GDP result surprise to the upside, it could bolster the Loonie later today which would in turn rein in the recent rise in USD/CAD.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (2:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
The API stockpile experienced a higher-than-anticipated drawdown for the fifth straight week but that was not enough to put a floor under oil prices. WTI oil has already shed 2.4% over the last couple of days as it dropped under $76 per barrel. Weak demand from China continues to worry traders while OPEC+ appears to stick to its plans to increase production levels – both events dampening oil prices. The EIA inventories will be released later today but even another large drawdown is unlikely to stabilize this commodity.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 31 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403295 July 31, 2024 11:30 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The leak overnight definitely raises the proposition of a buy the rumour, sell the fact play. But we’ll still have to let the dust settle first to be sure of anything like that. The whipsaw on the decision saw the pair fall to a low of 151.59 with the jump back hitting a high of 153.88. But now, the pair is settling around 153.00-20 levels for the most part in the last few minutes.
Overall, the decision is what you would expect from the BOJ especially after the leak yesterday. The tapering of bond purchases is gradual at inception but could pick up depending on their midterm reviews. As for the rate decision, it would’ve been a surprise two weeks ago but this report last week helped markets to cope and the overnight leak here made things much easier to digest.
Going back to USD/JPY on the charts, the bounce off the low earlier comes as the pair tests its 200-day moving average of 151.63 on the day. That gave dip buyers a level to lean on in pushing price back up for now. But the jump is stalling around the 100-hour moving average (red line) at 153.68 currently.
And there’s still much work to do to convince of an upside bounce, with the 155.00 mark still offering some resistance and now the 200-hour moving average (blue line) as well at 154.93.
As a side note, just be wary that there are large option expiries for the pair again at the 155.00 level today. That played a role in drawing but also limiting price action yesterday.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403294 July 31, 2024 11:00 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Earlier news was that
Hamas’ political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Iran
Oil is trading higher:
Middle East pundits are suggesting the days ahead will see Iran-led reprisals.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
403293 July 31, 2024 10:30 Forexlive Latest News Market News
From
Australia we had the Q2 inflation data, which was of intense focus.
Interest was centred on the ‘trimmed mean’ core measure, with
much speculation in the market that if it came in higher than the 1%
q/q it was expected there would be another Reserve Bank of
Australia rate hike next week at the August 5 and 6 meeting. The
trimmed mean came in below expected at 0.8% q/q, which means the Bank
will not raise its cash rate at this meeting. AUD/USD was marked
lower immediately, back under 0.6500.
NZD/USD
spiked higher (selling of AUD/NZD cross). Earlier from New Zealand
was a huge jump in business confidence in July (see bullets above for
the data) as the potential for a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate
cut rises.
Other
data from Australia today showed a mixed result for retail sales. The
m/m beat but q/q and y/y were very poor. The consumer remains not
overly keen to spend.
From
China we had the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) official PMIs.
The Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction. The Services PMI
dropped to 50.2 from 50.5 the previous month. China’s economy
continues to struggle.
Oil
traded higher. News was out that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was
killed in Tehran.
As
I post we are still awaiting the Bank of Japan decision. USD/JPY has
fallen on the session. Lows were under 152.25 and its bounced back to
153.00, and then down to 152.75 as I post. Liquidity was poor today,
of course.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
403292 July 31, 2024 10:15 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Hamas statement conveyed on media outlets:
Oil is higher.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.