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The major European indices are ending the day with mixed results. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• German DAX, +0.77%
• France CAC, -0.31%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.38%
• Spain’s Ibex, +0.61%
• Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.07%

Benchmark 10 year yields or trading modestly lower:

As London/European traders had for the exits, the major US stock indices are trading higher:

• Dow Industrial Average average is up 90.40.23 percent at 40505
• S&P index of 17.02 points or 0.21% at 5582
• NASDAQ up 95 points or 0.53% at 18102

The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 22 points or 1.03% at 2243.43

US yields are trading lower ahead of the 2-year note auction at 1 PM ET.

• 2-year yield 4.493%, -3.0 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.145%, -3.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.227%, -3.3 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.453%, -2.5 basis points.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resigns according to sources.

The move comes after intense questioning from House Oversight Committee members yesterday harshly criticizing the director related to the recent assassination attempt on former Pres. Donald Trump.

During her testimony yesterday, she acknowledged significant and colossal security failures at the rally. One rallygoer died from gunfire, and others were injured. Although the former President avoided the assassination attempt, the number of errors was indefensible. The director deflected questions throughout her appearance, frustrating committee members.

The chorus for her resignation was bipartisan and pushed Republican lawmakers to initiate impeachment procedures. Instead, the focus will be on rebuilding the agency.

Cheatle was named the director by Pres. Biden in 2022.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -14.0
• consumer confidence -13 versus -13.4 estimate

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

. 1.32 million units

• Prior month 4.11M
• existing home sales -5.4% versus -0.7% last month
• inventory at 4.1 months vs 3.7 months prior or 1.32 million units
• Median price $426,900 which is up 4.1% from June 2023 (record high)
• These are closed sales when rates were above 7%
• Average days is 22 (down from 24 days) but up from 18 days last year
• First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in June, down from 31% in May but up from 27% in June 2023.
• All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in June, unchanged from May and up from 26% one year ago
• Individual investors or second-home buyers, who make up many cash sales, purchased 16% of homes in June, identical to May and down from 18% in June 2023.

All four major US regions posted sales declines:

• Northeast:

  • Sales: Decreased 2.1% from May to an annual rate of 470,000, down 6% from June 2023.
  • Median Price: $521,500, up 9.7% from one year earlier.

• Midwest:

  • Sales: Decreased 8% from May to an annual rate of 920,000, down 6.1% from June 2023.
  • Median Price: $327,100, up 5.5% from June 2023.

• South:

  • Sales: Decreased 5.9% from May to an annual rate of 1.76 million, down 6.9% from June 2023.
  • Median Price: $373,000, up 1.7% from last year.

• West:

  • Sales: Decreased 2.6% from May to an annual rate of 740,000, unchanged from a year ago.
  • Median Price: $629,800, up 3.5% from June 2023.

Other housing data from the NAR on sales:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Manufacturing index -17 vs. -7 expected and -10 prior.
• Services index 5 vs. -11 prior.
• Manufacturing shipments index -21 vs. -9 prior.

Fifth District manufacturing activity worsened in July, according to the
most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The
composite manufacturing index decreased from −10 in June to −17 in July.
Of its three component indexes, shipments fell notably from −9 to −21,
new orders decreased from −16 to −23, and employment edged down from −2
to −5. Firms
grew less optimistic about local business conditions, as the index fell
from −13 to −21. The index for future local business conditions edged
down from 9 to 7 in July. The future indexes for shipments and new
orders remained solidly in positive territory, suggesting that firms
continued to expect improvements in these areas over the next six
months.The vendor lead time index increased into slightly
positive territory for only the second time in two years. Firms
continued to report declining backlogs in July as that index remained
negative.The average growth rate of prices paid and prices
received decreased in July. Firms expected little change in price growth
over the next 12 months.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The US stocks are open and the major indices are modest the lower/higher.

A snapshot of the market currently shows:

• Dow Industrial Average average -56 points or -0.15% at 40352
• S&P index -4.42 points or -0.07% at 5560.30
• nanoseconds -36 points or -0.20% at 17971

The RUSSELL 2000 is down -12.08 points are -0.54% at 2208.51

After the close both Alphabet and Tessa will report their earnings. Alphabet shares are currently up 0.27%. Tesla shares her up 0.70%.

In the US debt market, yields are lower by a basis point or two:

• 2-year yield 4.512%, -1.0 basis points
• 5-year 4.166%, -1.3 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.246%, -1.3 basis points
• 30-year yield 4.471%, -0.7 basis points

Looking at other markets:

• Crude oil is down once again. The price is down – $0.96 or -1.23% at $77.52.
• Gold is up $5.64 or 0.24% at 2401.84
• Silver is down $0.15 or -0.52% at $28.94
• Bitcoin is a lower trading at $66,600. The low price reached $66,122 and a high price reached $67,776

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Reuters Poll Summary:

• 70 of 100 economists anticipate a 25 basis points cut in the federal funds rate in both September and December, compared to 58 of 116 in June.
• 73 of 100 economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2024. 13 say 25 bps in 2024. 3 see no cuts in 2024

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined in July, as reported by the firms in the Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Key indicators such as general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues turned negative. The full-time employment index also suggested a decline in employment. Both price indexes showed continued overall price increases, remaining near non-recession averages. Despite the decline, firms still expect growth over the next six months, though these expectations are less widespread.

Below is a summary of the data:

• The diffusion index for current general activity at the firm level turned negative, dropping from 15.1 in June to -10.0, the lowest since April 2023.
• 31% of firms reported decreases, 21% reported increases, and 44% reported no change in activity.
• The new orders index turned negative, falling from 6.7 to -7.1, with 22% of firms reporting decreases and 15% reporting increases.
• The sales/revenues index fell 18 points to -3.5, with 25% of firms reporting decreases and 22% reporting increases.
• The regional activity index dropped 22 points to -19.1, the lowest reading since December 2020.

Employment details:

• Firms reported a decrease in full-time employment, with the full-time employment index falling 20 points to -4.9, its first negative reading since June 2023.
• 19% of firms reported decreases in full-time employment, 14% reported increases, and 66% reported no change.
• The part-time employment index declined from 13.1 to 4.0.
• 63% of firms reported steady part-time employment, 15% reported increases, and 11% reported decreases.

Prices details were mixed with prices paid higher but prices received lower:

• Price indicator readings suggest continued increases in input prices and prices for firms’ own goods and services.
• Both price indexes were near their long-run averages.
• The prices paid index rose 6 points to 30.2.
  • 32% of respondents reported higher input prices, 2% reported decreases, and 59% reported no change.
• The prices received index declined from 16.6 to 13.9.
  • 23% of firms reported increases in their own prices, 9% reported decreases, and 59% reported no change.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

On the economic calendar today:

• Consumer confidence flash estimate for July (10 AM ET): Estimate -13.4 versus -14.0 last month.
• Existing home sales for June (10 AM ET): Est. 4.00M vs 4.11M last month.
• Richmond Fed index for July (10 AM ET): Last month -10. Services index -11 last month

The U.S. Treasury will auction the 2-year note at 1 PM ET. At 4;30, the private inventory data for oil will be released at 4:30 PM.

After the close,earnings will be highlighted by Tesla and Alphabet:

• Tesla (TSLA)
• Alphabet (GOOGL)
• Enphase (ENPH)
• Visa (V)
• Texas Instruments (TXN)
• Chubb (CB)
• Seagate (STX)
• Capital One (COF)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Silver hangs on at the June lows for now
• Dollar keeps on firmer footing following last week’s advance
• AUD/USD looks poised for longest losing streak since August last year
• Japanese yen continues to find bids in the early stages this week
• European equities open in a more mixed mood to start the day
• What are the main events for today?
• ECB’s de Guindos: September is a much more convenient month for taking decisions
• Eurostoxx futures +0.2% in early European trading
• USD/JPY remains heavy to start the week

The European
session was empty on the data front. The highlight continues to be the US
Dollar as the greenback has been gaining ground against the major currencies
since last Wednesday.

It’s not clear
what is behind the move. The data continues to point to a resilient economy
with inflation falling slowly back to target. That should see the Fed cutting
rates at least two times this year.

On the other hand,
Trump is looking more and more like a potential winner and his policies are
seen as inflationary, which could see the Fed eventually going even more slowly
on rate cuts.

In other markets,
the US and European stocks continue to rally, while the Chinese stocks remain
under pressure. Treasury yields are down on the day while Gold is up.

Crude oil has been
under sustained strain since last week and that could fit with Trump’s
presidency narrative due to higher supply expectations.

Bitcoin has been
stuck in a consolidation around a key resistance since last Friday, but a
Trump’s presidency should be a strong bullish driver for the cryptocurrency
(all else being equal).

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Despite the sharp fall since last week, silver is still hanging in there in July trading. On the month itself, the precious metal is now down by 0.3% after erasing its monthly gains in the last five trading days. Price is now currently trading around $29.05, down 0.4% on the day. Still, buyers are not completely down for the count just yet.

The low today hit $28.67 and that calls into question the June lows at the $28.57-65 region. For now, that is still largely holding but a break below that will be a massive blow to the upside momentum since March.

We’ve already cut back on half of the gains since the surge higher in May and a break below the supportive region above will draw more interest from other key support levels.

The 61.8 Fib retracement level at $28.50 is one to watch, alongside the 100-day moving average (red line) at $28.35 currently.

A technical break below the latter especially will give sellers more momentum to drive a deeper correction in silver next.

As things stand, commodity metals haven’t been enjoying a good month from a technical perspective. Copper is also one that is breaking down further ahead of what is typically its worst seasonal performance in August.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.