403011 July 25, 2024 17:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The barrage of easing measures this week was meant to bolster the economy and shore up confidence in domestic markets. However, it has been anything but that. In trading yesterday, the Chinese yuan had weakened to its lowest level since November against the dollar before bids came through. And that is before the sudden wave of strength today:
Needless to say, we all know who’s the one in the market or at least pulling the strings in getting domestic banks to do so.
It seems like they are drawing a line closer to the 7.28 mark, as evident by the previous pushback earlier this month.
Still, I would argue this doesn’t change the long-term directive of markets in their view towards China at the moment. Beijing is expending a decent amount of ammunition in trying to bolster the economy but markets remain unconvinced.
After having plunged last year, valuations were certainly attractive for Chinese stocks. There was a brief respite up until May this year but the selling has returned since then. And the troubling part for Beijing is that investors are failing to find much confidence that the recovery path will be a solid and smooth run.
Going back to the yuan currency itself, it doesn’t look like there’s much scope for a rebound until next year at least. That despite Beijing’s efforts to keep a floor on the currency as seen above. Even with the Fed cutting rates, the trend this year in USD/CNY has been clear. And in the bigger picture, nothing has really changed to the overall outlook since the start of the year.
The narrative continues to be that Beijing will want to smooth out the depreciation in the yuan to be a more gradual one.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403010 July 25, 2024 16:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The data from the euro area this week has been rather poor to say the least. The readings here reaffirm softer business conditions in the German economy, alongside a worsening outlook as well. Again, if the economy is the one calling the shots, there is a strong case for a September rate cut. Now, it’s up to inflation data to play ball.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403009 July 25, 2024 16:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
403008 July 25, 2024 16:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
There were declines across all business sectors, with employment conditions also worsening on the month. The latter fell from 100 in June to 96 in July. Overall, business are pointing to renewed weakness in demand conditions as the main cause.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403007 July 25, 2024 15:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The low just a moment earlier touched 152.19 and the pair is down well over 900 pips already from the highs since early July. The breakdown earlier in the week saw price fall below the 155.00 mark and also the 100-day moving average (red line). Now, that shifts the focus to key support from the 200-day moving average (blue line) next.
The key technical level is seen at 151.55 at the moment and will be a major support level to watch. That alongside the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher this year at 151.10. A break below those levels will then shift the focus towards the 150.00 mark.
Outside of safety flows and arguably a corrective downside move in the pair this week, there’s no major catalyst for such strong bids in the Japanese yen.
The only other reason I can think of is that traders are hedging their bets ahead of the BOJ next week. There is a chance for the central bank to raise interest rates, so perhaps traders are heeding some caution on that.
However, as argued previously, I would still wager that we are setting up for a sell the fact trade in the yen regardless.
If the BOJ doesn’t hike, that’s another disappointment once again for those hoping for the central bank to take action. And even if they do, I anticipate it’ll be more of a dovish hike once the dust settles. And after all, it will just be another measly 0.10% rate hike in any case.
The idea is that the BOJ has to be consistent in doing so. But given the circumstances, it’ll likely be another rate hike followed by a long pause again.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403006 July 25, 2024 15:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
The pain train continues with the mood music leaning towards the softer side to start the session. The CAC 40 index has now broken below its recent consolidation range to its lowest since January:
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403005 July 25, 2024 15:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Earnings results update, 24 July AMC
Based on the earnings results of companies reporting last night, here’s a summary focusing on the moves made by these companies and their possible impact on the overall market indices such as SPX and NDX. Emphasis is placed on the most popular companies and brands that are likely to influence market sentiment.
Highlights of most popular companies
International Business Machines (IBM)
ServiceNow (NOW)
Ford Motor Company (F)
Other notable movers
KLA (KLAC)
Waste Management (WM)
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Overall market cap weighted trend
Positive influence:
Negative influence:
Overall sentiment:
Expected directional bias for next day
Investors and traders should prepare for a potentially mixed market with a slight bullish bias, adjusting their strategies accordingly based on the performance of these influential companies and the overall market sentiment derived from these earnings reports.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
403004 July 25, 2024 14:39 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Lower-tier data due from Japan. The Corporate Service Price Index is Japan’s Services PPI.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
403003 July 25, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
Japan’s Nikkei 225 extended its losing streak to seven days, plunging 3% and leading losses among Asian markets after Wall Street’s tumble. SoftBank Group plummeted 9%, while Renesas Electronics dropped over 14%. The broader Topix fell 2.24%. The yen strengthened for the fourth consecutive day against the U.S. dollar, reaching an 11-week high of 152.28. Reuters reported that the Bank of Japan might discuss a rate hike and a plan to reduce bond-buying at its upcoming meeting.
South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.8% and the Kosdaq dropped 2.32%, dragged down by SK Hynix, which fell 6%. This followed SK Hynix reporting record quarterly revenue of 16.42 trillion won ($11.85 billion), up 125% from a year ago. Operating profit hit 5.47 trillion won, the highest in six years, and net profit stood at 4.12 billion won, reversing losses from last year. Meanwhile, South Korea’s advance second-quarter GDP grew 2.3% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, and contracted 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 1.7%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell 0.98%. China’s central bank cut the medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5% to stimulate the economy, following Monday’s loan prime rate reduction. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.94%. Taiwan’s market remained closed for the second day as the island braced for Typhoon Gaemi.
In the U.S., the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their worst days since 2022, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.31% to 5,427.13 and the Nasdaq falling 3.64% to 17,342.41. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 504.22 points, or 1.25%, to 39,853.87. Tech stocks, including Nvidia and Meta Platforms, lost 6.8% and 5.6%, respectively. Alphabet shares fell 5%, marking their biggest one-day drop since January, while Tesla shares declined 12.3% on weaker-than-expected results and a 7% year-over-year drop in auto revenue.
The post Thursday 25th July 2024: Asian Markets Plunge Amid Global Sell-Off, Led by Nikkei’s 3% Drop first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403002 July 25, 2024 14:39 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
It was an uneventful morning as the dollar index (DXY) hovered around 104.20 while spot prices for gold remained capped under $2,380/oz but trading activity is likely to pick up at the onset of the European trading hours. Traders should watch out for the release of the German ifo Business Climate as well as macroeconomic data points from the U.S. later on.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated in June, led by the manufacturing and trade sectors as pessimistic expectations increased. July’s estimate of 88.9 points to a relatively unchanged business sentiment which could add some downward pressure on the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
Employment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is now expected to show economic activity growing 2.0%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.4%. GDP estimates for the second quarter have been mixed thus far but as more data becomes available, growth appears to be converging around 2% for this period. Meanwhile, unemployment claims remain elevated with the 4-week average now standing at 234K. Last week’s reading came in at 243K while the latest estimate of 237K points to another elevated reading. Should claims come in higher than expected once more, it could cause the dollar to come under pressure as this labour metric shows some signs of softness in the U.S. labour market.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie remained in freefall as it tumbled under the threshold of 0.6600. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.6550 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6530
Resistance: 0.6600
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Stronger demand for the dollar drove the Kiwi under 0.5950 overnight. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 0.5900 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5880
Resistance: 0.5950
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The yen continues to strengthen steadily with USD/JPY now falling under the 153-level. This currency pair continued to slide lower towards 152.50 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 152.00
Resistance: 154.00
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
German ifo Business Climate (8:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
The German ifo Business Climate deteriorated in June, led by the manufacturing and trade sectors as pessimistic expectations increased. July’s estimate of 88.9 points to a relatively unchanged business sentiment which could add some downward pressure on the Euro before the start of the European trading hours.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the greenback waned overnight as USD/CHF fell under 0.8850. This currency pair was trading around 0.8830 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8820
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Cable hit an overnight high of 1.2937 before retreating away from this level. This currency pair was trading around 1.2890 as Asian markets came online and is expected to edge lower as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2855
Resistance: 1.2940
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
As widely expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its overnight rate for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points (bps) to bring it down to 4.50% while continuing to normalize its balance sheet. The Governing Council noted that excess supply in the Canadian economy has aided in cooling inflation in recent months, thus warranting looser monetary policy as the Canadian labour market has shown signs of moderation. In addition, the council also anticipates CPI inflation to decrease in the second half of the year due to base effects for gasoline prices, before steadying at the 2% level in 2025.
During the press conference, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem stated that policymakers are not on a predetermined rate path and will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis based on incoming data. He also added that there was a clear consensus to cut by 25 bps at this recent meeting and that balance sheet normalization has still ways to go. The Loonie has lost nearly 1.4% over the last couple of weeks as USD/CAD gained almost 200 pips thus far.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
The EIA crude oil inventories experienced a much higher-than-anticipated drawdown for the fourth week in a row as 3.74M barrels of crude were removed from storage to highlight the improved U.S. demand for oil. However, prices remain under pressure due to concerns over weak demand from China and potential ceasefire talks in the Middle East. WTI oil tumbled under $78.50 per barrel overnight and looks set to drift lower as the day progresses.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The post IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 25 July 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
403001 July 25, 2024 14:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
US futures were largely steadier in Asia trading, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.2% at the time. That comes despite heavy selling in the region, with the Nikkei closing down by over 3% and posting its lowest close since late April. This continues to reaffirm that sentiment is extremely fragile currently and stocks are staying vulnerable to further declines.
This might lead to more safety flows in broader markets, with traders seemingly preferring the Japanese yen and Swiss franc mostly. The dollar is also holding firmer against the rest of the major currencies bloc, even benefiting against gold this week.
As for commodity currencies, the pressure continues with AUD/USD down 0.6% to 0.6540 after a break of key support here.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
403000 July 25, 2024 14:14 Forexlive Latest News Market News
French stocks look poised to break the key support outlined here, and that bodes ill for sentiment among regional equities in the latter stages this week. US futures were steadier earlier as well but S&P 500 futures are now down 0.06% as the mood music begins to turn on the day. In Asia, the Nikkei closes down by over 3% and below the 38,000 mark for the first time since late April.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.