Articles
USD/JPY laughs in Kanda’s face
398372 June 26, 2024 21:37 Forexlive Latest News Market News
USD/JPY 10m
Verbal intervention isn’t what it used to be.
There was a time when tough talk from Kanda was worth +150 pips and some serious reconsideration of positions. Today, he pushed all the buttons and the market isn’t impressed.
After a 35-pip dip, there has been a rapid turnaround to a session high. The one line that might have emboldened longs was when he said they “don’t have specific levels in mind.” That may have been a hint that 160 doesn’t matter.
At the same time, he ticked all the boxes in saying moves have been speculative and one-sided so you need to have some real cohones to chase this rally.
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Silver Price Analysis: Declining in a falling channel
398370 June 26, 2024 21:36 FXStreet Market News
- Silver is weakening within a descending channel.Â
- The channel is more likely than not to continue unfolding lower.Â
- A break below the June 13 low would confirm further downside.Â
Silver (XAG/USD) looks like it has started to form a descending channel on the 4-hour chart and the evidence is building to argue that it is probably in a short-term downtrend now too. Given the old saying that “the trend is your friend” the odds probably favor a continuation lower – with some important caveats.Â
Silver 4-hour ChartÂ
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Silver rallied strongly on June 20 and 21 but then failed to break out of the top of its falling channel. It then fell back down, finding support at $28.66, the June 13 lows, from where it has just bounced.Â
If Silver breaks below $28.66 it will confirm it is in a short-term downtrend and probably continue to decline substantially lower. The next downside target likely lies at the level of the lower channel line, at around $27.50.Â
The caveat is that Silver did temporarily break out of its channel on June 21, and although it failed to follow-through higher the fact it breached the channelÂ’s upper borderline suggests the integrity of the falling channel has been compromised. This will make it easier for price to break out higher on a second attempt.Â
If the June 13 lows hold, therefore, and Silver starts to recover it could run back up to the level of the upper channel line at around $29.90, which is also a major resistance level at the top of SilverÂ’s four-year consolidation zone. A decisive break above that level would indicate a major turning point for the precious metal and suggest a new uptrend was probably evolving.Â
A decisive break would be one accompanied by a long green up candle that broke clearly above the level and closed near its high or three green candles in a row that broke above the level.Â
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Pound Sterling falls back from 1.2700 with US core PCE inflation in focus
398368 June 26, 2024 21:26 FXStreet Market News
- The Pound Sterling declines against the US Dollar as investors shift focus to the US core PCE inflation data for May.
- UKÂ’s high wage inflation refrains BoE policymakers from committing to interest rate cuts.
- Uncertainty over the UKÂ’s parliamentary elections will keep the Pound Sterling on tenterhooks.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s New York session. The recovery move in the GBP/USD pair from the more than five-week low of 1.2620 has stalled near the round-level resistance of 1.2700 as investors shift focus towards the United States (US) core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for May, which will be published on Friday.
Investors will pay close attention to the US core PCE inflation data as it is the Federal ReserveÂ’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. This data will provide fresh cues about when and how far interest rates will be reduced this year. Annually, the underlying inflation data is estimated to have softened to 2.6% in May from the prior release of 2.8%, with monthly figures growing at a slower pace of 0.1% from 0.2% in April.
Currently, investors expect the Fed to kickstart its rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting and extend it further in November or December.
On the contrary, Fed policymakers continue to advocate maintaining interest rates at their current levels for longer until they get evidence that inflation will return to the desired rate of 2%. Fed officials want to see inflation declining for months to gain confidence in rate cuts and, therefore, delivering a hawkish guidance.
On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman supported the continuation of the current policy framework for some time to tame price pressures. She kept hopes of more rate hikes on the table if disinflation stalls or reverses. When asked about timing for rate cuts, Bowman said she doesnÂ’t see any this year.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains downbeat against US and Australian Dollar
- The Pound Sterling performs strongly against a majority of its peers as fears of policy divergence have intensified due to strong wage growth in the United Kingdom. However, the Pound weakens against the Australian Dollar and the USD. Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose strongly by 4.0% from expectations of 3.8% and the prior release of 3.6%, which weighed on expectations of more rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
- Unlike the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of Canada (BoC), and the European Central Bank (ECB), which have begun their policy-easing cycle, the Bank of England (BoE) has not committed to rate cuts in the near term.
- The UKÂ’s high wage growth keeps inflation persistent in the service sector, making interest rate cuts inappropriate in the current situation. Although headline inflation has returned to the desired rate of 2%, officials see service inflation as a preferred measure for decision-making on interest rates and want it to decline for months to gain confidence in lowering borrowing rates.
- Currently, investors expect that the BoE will start reducing interest rates from the August meeting. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in the UK economy is expected to keep the Pound Sterling on its toes. Market participants expect that the opposition Labour Party has the upper hand in parliamentary elections on the Conservative Party. The first round of UK parliamentary elections will commence on July 4.Â
Pound Sterling Price Today:
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Euro.
| Â | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Â | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.13% | 0.08% | -0.42% | 0.15% | 0.16% |
| EUR | -0.21% | Â | -0.10% | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.62% | -0.05% | -0.07% |
| GBP | -0.12% | 0.10% | Â | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.52% | 0.07% | 0.05% |
| JPY | -0.13% | 0.12% | 0.00% | Â | -0.04% | -0.54% | 0.06% | 0.05% |
| CAD | -0.08% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.04% | Â | -0.53% | 0.09% | 0.08% |
| AUD | 0.42% | 0.62% | 0.52% | 0.54% | 0.53% | Â | 0.57% | 0.57% |
| NZD | -0.15% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.09% | -0.57% | Â | 0.00% |
| CHF | -0.16% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.57% | -0.00% | Â |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling struggles to hold auction above 50-day EMA
The Pound Sterling faces pressure near 1.2700 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair continues to find sellers near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2700. Also, the Cable struggles to hold the 50-day EMA is acting as support at around 1.2670.
The Cable trades close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 1.2667, plotted from the March 8 high of 1.2900 to the April 22 low at 1.2300.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a consolidation ahead.
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Ripple CEO slams SEC Gary Gensler for recent remarks, XRP extends losses
398365 June 26, 2024 21:22 FXStreet Market News
- Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse criticized SEC Chair Gensler for his statement that all crypto executives go to jail.Â
- Gensler shared his thoughts on crypto regulation and the sectorÂ’s role in the US Presidential election in a Bloomberg interview.Â
- XRP is struggling to break above resistance at $0.48 early on Wednesday.Â
Ripple (XRP) executive Brad Garlinghouse is making headlines for his statement on Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary GenslerÂ’s remarks on crypto. Gensler said crypto is a field where either the executives are in jail or awaiting extradition.Â
Garlinghouse slammed the SEC ChairÂ’s statement in a recent tweet on X. The Ripple CEO has faced a lawsuit in California that is set to go to trial for his “misleading statements” in an interview in 2017.Â
XRP is struggling under $0.48, the altcoin is trading at $0.4723, down 0.69% on Wednesday.Â
Daily digest market movers: Ripple CEO condemns Chair GenslerÂ’s statements on crypto
- Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse was recently in the news for a California state lawsuit against the executive that went to trial. Garlinghouse allegedly made “misleading statements,” saying he is bullish on XRP while selling millions of tokens at the same time.Â
- Garlinghouse is making headlines this time for his response to Gary GenslerÂ’s remarks in a Bloomberg interview.Â
- The SEC Chair said in the interview that, “This (crypto) is a field where the leading lights from a couple of years ago are either in jail, about to go to jail, or awaiting extradition.”
- Garlinghouse slammed the comments in a recent tweet on X:
Absolute nonsense coming from @GaryGensler today.
And this slander about “all crypto execs going to jail” from the man who completely missed FTX (and actually cozied up to SBF), and wasn’t even invited to the DOJ announcement about Binance.
If he was really “working for the… https://t.co/c3ynB5Gncl
— Brad Garlinghouse (@bgarlinghouse) June 25, 2024
- The SECÂ’s lawsuit against Ripple dates back to 2020, making it evident why the executive and the agency chair donÂ’t see eye to eye on the industry.Â
- The ongoing lawsuit and the executiveÂ’s comments are the market movers on Wednesday.Â
- XRP is struggling to break past the sticky resistance at $0.48 this week.
Technical analysis: XRP stuck under resistance at $0.48
Ripple is stuck under resistance at $0.48 for the sixth consecutive day, as seen on the daily chart. The altcoin has failed to break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of its decline from the March 11 top of $0.7440 to the April 13 low of $0.4188, at $0.4955.Â
The closest support is the June 7 low of $0.4508, 5% below the current price level. The closest resistance lies at the Fair Value Gap, between $0.4825 and $0.4841.Â
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flashing red histogram bars under the neutral line, and the signal line has crossed above MACD. This reveals an underlying negative momentum in Ripple’s price trend. 
XRP/USDT daily chartÂ
A daily candlestick close above $0.4955 could invalidate the bearish thesis and erase the recent losses, 3.28% in the past seven days. The altcoin could then rally towards the closest resistance at $0.4825.Â
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of BitcoinÂ’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
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EUR/JPY hovers near multi-year highs 171.50, Japan’s intervention fears intensify
398364 June 26, 2024 21:21 FXStreet Market News
- EUR/JPY trades near multi-year highs above 171.00.
- Fears of JapanÂ’s intervention to cushion the Japanese Yen have intensified.
- The ECB is expected to deliver more rate cuts sooner.
The EUR/JPY trades close to multi-year highs around 171.50 in WednesdayÂ’s American session. The cross is expected to face selling pressure as the Japanese Yen could gain significantly with JapanÂ’s intervention against excessive FX volatility moves.
Fears of Japan intervention to provide cushion to weak Yen have deepened as the currency has declined to lowest levels of 160.39 since 1986 against the US Dollar (USD).
The Japanese Yen has remained under pressure despite growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again sooner. The expectations for further policy-tightening have improved as weak Yen is resulting in higher inflation by making exports competitive in global markets and increasing import costs. The BoJ minutes for the latest meeting showed that one member advocated for an increase “without too much delay” to help bring inflation back down, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, the Euro is also under pressure due to rising expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver subsequent rate cuts. The probability of more rate cuts by the ECB has been prompted by deteriorating economic prospects of EurozoneÂ’s largest economy.
German IFO data that exhibits market sentiment over economyÂ’s current position and forward outlook indicated a gloomy picture. The IFO Business Climate, an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany, surprisingly declined to 88.6 for June.
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New home sales, oil inventories and a 5-year auction are the highlights
398361 June 26, 2024 20:33 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Eyes are on Japan at the moment with USD/JPY at the highest since 1990. They could intervene at any time but if they wait too long, then look for the market to push higher.
They are unlikely to get any help from the USD side of the equation with no major data releases today and a bare Fed calendar. The data today kicks off at 10 am ET with US new home sales. We get weekly oil inventories 30 minutes later and a US 5-year Treasury auction at 1 pm ET.
Right now, Treasury yields are 4-5 bps higher across the curve as month-end flows hit. I’ll be carefully watching tech and NVDA specifically to see if the bounce that started yesterday continues.
Here’s a good meme from @MrMBrown
Japanese Yen prints multi-decade high above 160.00
398360 June 26, 2024 20:21 FXStreet Market News
- The Japanese Yen softens and breaks above 160.00.
- With pressure building to the upside in USD/JPY, the risk of a hard correction grows.
- The US Dollar Index pops higher after some hawkish Fed comments.Â
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens again on Wednesday in a near 10-day losing streak that only had one hiccup on the way up. Traders are dipping their toes in the water to see if the Japanese Ministry of Finance is set to intervene in forex markets. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is still unclear on when, how and if it will cut its debt-buying program.Â
Meanwhile, the DXY US Dollar Index – which gauges the value of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six foreign currencies – is stronger with the help from the depreciation of the Japanese Yen. The other heavyweight in the basket, the Euro, is not helping either as uncertainty builds up ahead of the French snap elections on Sunday and German consumer confidence deteriorates further. This gives the DXY a boost from outside help even though the Greenback looks overvalued seeing recent economic data.Â
Daily digest market movers: Testing BoJ
- Gareth Berry, the FX and Rates strategist from Macquarie, is expecting the USD/JPY pair to fall to 120.00. This squeeze lower is expected to happen in the next 18 months, Bloomberg reports.Â
- Head of sales and trading business at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation Takafumi Onodera noted that the Japanese authorities will not intervene until FridayÂ’s US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) print. A stronger-than-expected report could spur volatility and send the Yen hurtling toward 163.00 against the US Dollar, spurring officials to make a “rate check” or intervene during a period of thin liquidity. Rate checks warn traders that authorities may be preparing to step in to support the Yen.Â
- At 11:00 GMT, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) was released, and went to 0.8%, coming from 0.9% the previous week.
- At 14:00 GMT, New Home Sales data for May will come out. Analysts expect sales to increase slightly to 640,000 from AprilÂ’s 634,000.Â
- The US Treasury will allot a 5-year Note in the markets at 17:00 GMT.Â
- The Federal ReserveÂ’s Bank Stress Test report will come out at 20:30 GMT.Â
- Equities are recovering after Nvidia (NVDA) was able to eke out gains on Tuesday at the US closing bell. The main indices in Asia are all in the green, and even the Dax and the pan-European index, Euro Stoxx 50, are recovering. US futures are rather mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial futures in the red against Nasdaq futures in the green, and the S&P 500 caught in the middle.Â
- The CME Fedwatch Tool is broadly backing a rate cut in September despite recent comments from Fed officials. The odds now stand at 57.9% for a 25-basis-point cut. A rate pause stands at a 35.9% chance, while a 50-basis-point rate cut has a slim 6.2% possibility.Â
- The Overnight indexed Swap curve for Japan shows a 56.6% chance for a rate hike on July 31, and a smaller 49.6% chance for a hike on September 20.Â
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades near the weekly high at 4.27%.
- The benchmark 10-year Japan Treasury Note (JGB) trades around 1.023%, breaking above 1% for the first time since June.Â
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: All against Yen
The USD/JPY pair is flashing red warning lights as price action overheats too much. The best evidence is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is close to overbought conditions in the daily chart, while the magic 160.00 level, where Japanese authorities intervened last time, is very near. Do not expect a snap reaction immediately, as authorities will want to see if US data on Thursday and Friday could trigger some easing without sticking their neck out and intervening. At max, 163.00 on the upside could be tested on stronger US data in the coming days, while on the downside, that 151.95 level is again the pivotal support to watch.Â
Bank of Japan FAQs
EUR/USD Forecast: Bears aiming for June monthly low at 1.0667 and beyond
398358 June 26, 2024 20:17 FXStreet Market News
EUR/USD Current price: 1.0687
- European Central Bank officials hit the wires, maintained the cautious stance.
- Stock markets trade mixed, a bounce in the tech sector limits panic selling.
- EUR/USD bearish case gains traction after the pair pierced the 1.0700 mark.
The US Dollar extends gains on Wednesday against most major rivals, pushing EUR/USD below the 1.0700 mark. Without relevant macroeconomic data in the way, market players keep an eye on stock markets and comments from central bank officials.
As for stocks, Asian shares advanced amid a bounce in the tech sector, led by NVIDIA, which halted a three-day slump. However, European indexes were unable to follow the lead and trade in the red. Wall Street futures trade mixed, with the DJIA still under pressure but the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500 advancing amid gains in the aforementioned sector.
Regarding policymakers, Flavio Panetta, Governor of the Bank of Italy and member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, said that officials are at a turning point in the monetary policy cycle. He added ECB officials should avoid “even casual” forward guidance on the timing of rate moves and cooled down concerns about stubbornly high service inflation, noting it is not abnormal. Finally, Panetta states that the economic environment is consistent with a normalisation of the monetary stance.
 ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane was also on the wires and said that the overall transmission of monetary policy has been robust and, if anything, stronger than in previous cycles. Overall, ECB officials maintained a cautiously hawkish stance and failed to trigger relevant moves around the Euro.
Data-wise, Germany published the GfK Survey, which showed Consumer Confidence contracted to -21.8 in July from -21 previously, also missing expectations of -18.9. The American session will bring United States (US) May New Home Sales and the result of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) System Bank Stress Test.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair slowly but steadily approaches the June monthly low at 1.0667, the immediate support level. Technical readings in the daily chart support a downward extension, as the pair sild further below all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating lower below directionless 100 and 200 SMAs. At the same time, technical indicators turned firmly lower within negative levels, reflecting sellers’ strength.
The 4-hour chart shows sellers are aligned around a mildly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.0709, while the 100 SMA gains downward strength far above the shorter one. Finally, the Momentum indicator aims marginally lower around its 100 level, not enough to confirm another leg south, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also shows moderated bearish strength, although at around the 38 level, skewing the risk to the downside.
 Support levels: 1.0665 1.0620 1.0580
Resistance levels: 1.0710 1.0750 1.0800Â Â
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Brazil Mid-month Inflation below expectations (0.45%) in June: Actual (0.39%)
398357 June 26, 2024 20:02 FXStreet Market News
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