Articles

Ex-Dividend 28/06/2024

398604   June 27, 2024 17:03   ICMarkets   Market News  

Eurozone Consumer Confidence in line with forecasts (-14) in June

398603   June 27, 2024 17:02   FXStreet   Market News  

Eurozone Services Sentiment above expectations (6.4) in June: Actual (6.5)

398602   June 27, 2024 17:02   FXStreet   Market News  

NZD/USD: The pair to keep the momentum below 0.6110 – UOB Group

398601   June 27, 2024 16:56   FXStreet   Market News  

Strong momentum is likely to lead to further the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakness. NZD is likely to continue to weaken, but the major support at 0.6040 is unlikely to come under threat for now, UOB Group strategists note.

Break above 0.6135 to stop the downside momentum

24-HOUR VIEW: “We did not anticipate NZD to drop sharply to 0.6075 (we were expecting sideways trading). While strong momentum is likely to lead to further weakness, given that conditions are oversold, the major support at 0.6040 is unlikely to come under threat (there is another support at 0.6060). To keep the momentum going, NZD must stay below 0.6110 (minor resistance is at 0.6095).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held the same view that NZD ‘is likely to drift lower to 0.6085’ since last Tuesday (18 Jun, spot at 0.6130). After more than a week, our view materialised, even though instead of drifting lower, NZD fell sharply 0.6075 in NY trading. The sharp drop has resulted in a rapid increase in momentum, and NZD is likely to continue to weaken. The next support level to watch is 0.6040. Overall, only a breach of 0.6135 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6160) would mean that NZD is not weakening further.”

Gold bounces off $2,300 after traders take profit

398599   June 27, 2024 16:56   FXStreet   Market News  

• Gold bounces off the psychologically important $2,300 level after another leg of selling. 
• The pair continues to be pressured by a higher-for-longer outlook on interest rates – data on Friday could be key.
• XAU/USD approaches the neckline for a potential topping pattern – if broken, a cascade down could result.  

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher, trading just above $2,300 on Thursday, as short-traders take profit following the last down leg from the $2,330s. The yellow metal has been pressured by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials – those tasked with setting interest rates in the US – who have consistently stated that more progress has to be made on bringing down inflation before they can consider cutting interest rates. 

Their reluctance to cut rates weighs on Gold because it makes the non-interest paying asset comparatively less attractive to investors.  

Gold pressured by reluctant Fed

Gold backs and fills on Thursday after another big down-day on Wednesday as markets took their cue from a mixture of Fed speakers keeping reserved about cutting interest rates, and chart-based technical opportunism.  

In regards to interest rates, of key importance will be the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May on Friday, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. A lower-than-expected result could make the Fed more optimistic about cutting interest rates. The opposite would be the case if the PCE beats expectations. 

Whilst the Fed sits on its hands, the market is a bit more optimistic seeing a relatively high probability (62%) of the Fed cutting interest rates at (or before) the Fed’s September meeting, although this is below the 66% seen on Wednesday. The estimates are according to the CME FedWatch tool, which calculates chances using Fed Funds futures prices. 

GoldÂ’s downside capped by longer-term factors

Gold’s downside is capped by various long-term positive factors. Firstly, there is its role as a safe-haven in an increasingly fractured, uncertain world. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, Ukraine and now France ahead of its contentious elections, is making some investors nervous, as is the impact of AI-driven revolutionary economic change as well as the threat of climate change.  

The US Dollar (USD) is a further double-edged factor. A strong US Dollar has led to such a steep depreciation in mainly Asian currencies recently, prompting regional central banks to hoard Gold as a hedge against the effects. That said, a stronger Dollar also tends to lower Gold price precisely because it is priced in Dollars. 

Recently USD reached a 38-year high against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the higher it goes the more demand Gold will see as a currency hedge. 

Another longer-term positive factor for Gold is the BRICS trade confederation’s strategy to use Gold as a replacement for the US Dollar in global trade. Given its position as a stable, safe store of value, Gold is the most reliable alternative as a means of exchange between nations with different, often volatile currencies. 

Technical Analysis: Gold continues approaching key support 

Gold has steadily pushed lower towards key support and the neckline of a possible topping pattern at $2,279. A break below the neckline would signal a strong down move. 

XAU/USD Daily Chart

 

The XAU/USD pair had been forming a bearish Head-and-Shoulders (H&S) pattern over the last three months. However, the upside break on June 20 has brought the validity of the pattern into doubt. That said, a more complex topping pattern that might still prove bearish is still possibly forming. 

If so, then a break below the pattern’s neckline – even if it is not an orthodox H&S – at $2,279 would provide confirmation of a reversal lower, with a conservative target at $2,171, and a second target at $2,105. 

At the same time, it is also still possible that Gold could find its feet and continue higher. GoldÂ’s original break above the trendline and the 50-day SMA on June 20 was supposed to reach an initial, conservative target in the mid $2,380s (June 7 high), and it is still possible it could reach that target despite the fallback.

However, it would require a break above $2,350 to confirm a move up to the June 7 high. A further break above that might indicate a continuation up to the May – and all-time – high at $2,450. 

A break above that would confirm a resumption of the broader uptrend. 

There is a risk that the trend is now sideways in both the short and medium term. In the long term, Gold remains in an uptrend. 

AUD/USD: A break above 0.6665 may lead to 0.6680 – UOB Group

398598   June 27, 2024 16:49   FXStreet   Market News  

Sharp pullback in Australian Dollar (AUD) has scope to extend. Any decline is unlikely to reach 0.6600. For the time being, AUD is likely to trade between 0.6600 and 0.6685.

A break above 0.6665 is very likely

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we expected AUD to trade in a range of 0.6625/0.6665. We did not expect the spike in volatility as AUD soared to 0.6689 before pulling back sharply to close largely unchanged (0.6648, -0.01%). The sharp pullback has scope to extend, but given the lackluster momentum, any decline is unlikely to reach 0.6600. Note that there is another support level at 0.6625. Resistance is at 0.6665, followed by 0.6680.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our latest narrative from Wednesday (24 Jun, spot at 0.6640), we indicated that the current price action is likely part of a range-trading phase. We expected AUD to trade between 0.6600 and 0.6685. Yesterday, AUD rose a few pips above 0.6685, reaching a high of 0.6689. However, the advance was short-lived, as AUD pulled back to close largely unchanged (0.6648, -0.01%). The price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase, and we continue to expect AUD to trade between 0.6600 and 0.6685.”

ECBÂ’s Kazimir: I think we can expect one more rate cut this year

398597   June 27, 2024 16:45   FXStreet   Market News  

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Eurozone M3 Money Supply (3m) increased to 1.3% in May from previous 0.8%

398596   June 27, 2024 16:40   FXStreet   Market News  

USD/INR edges lower as Indian Rupee receives support ahead of index inclusion

398594   June 27, 2024 16:40   FXStreet   Market News  

• The Indian Rupee appreciates as Indian bonds are scheduled to be included in J.P. MorganÂ’s Emerging Market Bond Index on June 28.
• Foreign investors have invested around $10 billion into the securities eligible to join J.P. MorganÂ’s index.
• US GDP Annualized (Q1) is expected to show a slight increase of 1.4% from the previous growth of 1.3%.

The Indian Rupee (INR) recovers its recent losses on Thursday due to receiving support from the expectations of foreign inflows. Indian bonds are set to enter the JP Morgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond Index on June 28. Foreign investors have already invested approximately $10 billion into the securities eligible to join JPMorganÂ’s index, according to Business Standard. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates at least $30 billion more in inflows in the coming months as IndiaÂ’s weighting on the index steadily rises to 10%.

The US Dollar (USD) loses ground possibly due to tradersÂ’ anticipation of FridayÂ’s Core PCE Price Index inflation, projected to decrease year-over-year to 2.6% from the previous 2.8%. This data is seen as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. Market participants are hoping that signs of easing inflation will encourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider rate cuts sooner rather than later.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee gains ground on expected foreign inflows

• Lower crude Oil prices could support the Indian Rupee, the currency of the world’s third-largest oil consumer after the United States and China. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price edges lower to near $80.30, at the time of writing. Crude oil prices received pressure after a surprise build in US crude stockpiles, which raised concerns about weakening demand from the worldÂ’s top oil consumers.
• Reuters cited Fed Governor Michelle Bowman repeating her view on Tuesday that holding the policy rate steady for some time will likely be enough to bring inflation under control. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said it would be appropriate to cut interest rates “at some point,” given significant progress on inflation and a gradual cooling of the labor market, though she remained vague about the timing of the easing.
• The S&P Global Ratings retained its growth forecast for India at 6.8% for FY25, citing high interest rates and government spending boosting demand in the non-agricultural sectors.
• On Tuesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that India is on the verge of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory, moving towards sustained 8% GDP growth. Das attributes this growth to several key drivers, including structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), reported by The Economic Times.
• India is expected to become a $4 trillion economy in 2025, surpassing Japan by early next fiscal year to become the world’s fourth largest economy, according to Indian Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) member Sanjeev Sanyal.

Technical analysis: USD/INR holds position around 83.50

The USD/INR trades around 83.50 on Thursday. The analysis of the daily chart shows a broadening pattern, indicating increasing volatility. This pattern suggests a potential correction before moving lower. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the 50 level, and a break below this level could signal a bearish bias.

Immediate support is at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 83.40. A break below this level could push the USD/INR pair toward the lower boundary of the broadening bottom at around 83.30.

On the upside, resistance is expected at the upper boundary of the broadening formation at around 83.70, followed by the psychological level of 84.00.

USD/INR: Daily Chart

Bitcoin extends losses after US government sends $240 million worth of BTC to Coinbase

398591   June 27, 2024 16:35   FXStreet   Market News  

• The US Government transferred 3,940.28 BTC, valued at $241.22 million, to Coinbase Prime.
• The German Government transferred another 750 BTC, valued at $46.35 million, on Wednesday.
• On-chain data shows that the miners’ selling activity is increasing, signaling bearish momentum.

Bitcoin (BTC) encountered resistance near the $62,000 mark on Wednesday and declined 1.5% to trade around $60,777 in ThursdayÂ’s European session. The US and German governments’ transfers of BTC to exchanges in the past week have contributed to market FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders. Additionally, on-chain data reveals a rise in miners’ selling activity, suggesting bearish sentiment in the market.

Daily digest market movers: Bitcoin price eases as US and German Authorities transfer BTC to exchanges

• Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the US Government transferred 3,940.28 BTC, valued at $241.22 million, to Coinbase Prime Deposit on Wednesday. This Bitcoin was initially seized from narcotics trafficker Banmeet Singh and forfeited during a trial in January 2024. This sudden movement of funds could have sparked FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) among traders, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s 1.5% price decline on Wednesday.

• According to data from Lookonchain, the German Government transferred 750 BTC, valued at $46.35 million, on Wednesday. Additionally, a smaller transfer of 0.001 BTC to Flow Traders suggests a possible test transaction or intention to sell BTC through that entity. Recent movements indicate that German authorities have transferred a total of 2,100 BTC, amounting to $135.22 million, to platforms including Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken over the past few days. The German Government currently holds 45,609 BTC, valued at $2.81 billion.

• Strike, a company specializing in Bitcoin payments, announced via its Twitter account that it is entering the United Kingdom market. This expansion enables individuals and businesses in the UK to utilize Strike’s services related to Bitcoin and the Lightning Network. With this step, Strike’s services are now accessible in 100 countries and regions worldwide, encompassing the US, Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Given the UK’s status as the second-largest economy in Europe and the sixth-largest globally, this move presents substantial prospects for increasing Bitcoin adoption.

• According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow (Total) metric shows the total amount of BTC transferred from a mining pool to exchange wallets. Increases in the metric indicate that many miners’ coins are exposed to selling, suggesting a bearish trend, and decreases indicate that only a few miners’ coins are exposed to selling, signaling less sell pressure.
•  In the last three days, the miners have sent their BTC to the exchanges at an average daily rate of 8,702.18 BTC. This transfer could include the immediate need to cover the cost or to gain excess gains by selling at the price they consider to be overvalued. Both cases are correlated to sell action, which naturally leads to interpreting this reason as a price drop, which indicates a bearish sign.

Bitcoin Miner to Exchange Flow (Total) chart

Technical analysis: BTC faces resistance at the lower band of the descending wedge

Bitcoin’s price broke below the descending wedge on Monday, declining approximately 7.5% to retest its crucial weekly support near $58,375 and rebounded by 5.8% on Tuesday.

BTC was rejected by the lower band of the broken descending wedge on Wednesday. Since then, it has edged down approximately 1.75% to trade around $60,777.

If the lower boundary of the descending wedge around $62,000 holds as resistance, BTC could decline roughly 4% to reach its weekly support near $58,375.

On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are below their respective mean levels of 50 and zero. This indicates that, according to these momentum indicators, the bearish sentiment prevails, suggesting the potential for further decline in BTCÂ’s price.

BTC/USDT daily chart

However, if BTC closes above the $63,956 level and forms a higher high in the daily time frame, it could indicate that bullish sentiment persists. Such a development may trigger a 5% rise in Bitcoin’s price, revisiting its next weekly resistance at $67,147.

Portugal Business Confidence remains unchanged at 1.9 in June

398590   June 27, 2024 16:33   FXStreet   Market News  

Portugal Consumer Confidence rose from previous -18.5 to -17.2 in June

398589   June 27, 2024 16:33   FXStreet   Market News