Articles
Will Solana ETF receive approval from SEC? Here’s what you need to know
399220 June 29, 2024 05:02 FXStreet Market News
- Several analysts have shared their odds for a potential Solana ETF following 21Shares and VanEck’s filings.
- Top industry voices suggest that a change in the White House is paramount for Solana ETF approval.
- Solana is down nearly 5% in the past 24 hours.
Solana (SOL) shed 5% of its value on Friday as top industry voices aired their views on the odds of the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Solana ETF. This follows asset managers VanEck and 21Shares filing S-1 registration statements for their respective spot SOL ETFs.
Crypto experts share their thoughts on potential Solana ETF approval
Solana was the center topic of discussion across several cohorts in the crypto community on Friday following VanEck and 21Shares’ recent filing for a spot Solana ETF. The increased attention surrounding Solana is evidenced by a hike in its social volume, as seen in the chart below.
SOL Social Volume
Discussions and predictions from top industry voices about the odds of SOL ETF approval seem to be driving the social volume surge.
Considering that crypto ETFs have become a major subject among investment firms following the high volumes seen in Bitcoin ETFs over the last six months, introducing a Solana ETF may solidify the token’s growing market influence.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that SOL ETFs won’t be approved this year may only be possible if the current SEC administration and the White House see a change after the November presidential election.
“The odds of a Solana ETF being approved in next 12mo are tied at the hip to the odds of a change in POTUS and safe to say the chances of both are higher today then they were yesterday.. Altho we not giving any exact number on this yet. Way too early,” he said
In line with Balchunas’s prediction, Scott Johnsson, General Partner at Van Buren Capital, speculated that the SOL ETF move might affect the upcoming elections, with a “60+% chance of a new admin and/or the current admin getting scared straight through this election that they loosen things considerably.”
Balchunas added that the major limitation to a Solana ETF approval would likely stem from a lack of Solana futures in the US.
Adam Cochran, partner at crypto venture capital firm Cinneamhain Ventures, stated that VanEck’s and, by extension, 21Shares’ move may be “reckless” as SOL’s futures volume in international exchanges does not meet the SEC’s requirements. Other analysts have stated that the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs form a pattern that begins with the approval of a crypto futures ETF and eventually culminates in the approval of its spot ETF counterpart.
In addition, the SEC previously classified SOL as a security in at least two separate lawsuits. This may dampen the chances of its ETF approval.
Meanwhile, SOL is down by almost 5% in the past 24 hours as FOMO from VanEck’s initial filings yesterday seems to have faded. An earlier report based on Santiment data predicted that Solana could see a correction due to the social volume spike that accompanied its rise on Thursday.
Crypto ETF FAQs
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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Benign PCE report collides with tumultuous politics
399219 June 29, 2024 04:49 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Markets:
- Gold down $3 to $2342
- US 10-year yields up 9.8 bps to 4.39%
- WTI crude down 19-cents to $80.64
- S&P 500 down 0.4%
- AUD leads, JPY lags
Friday was the final day of the quarter and that made drawing conclusions tough. It was especially difficult because the US political scene was thrown into disarray by Joe Biden’s poor debate performance.
Eyes were on the PCE report early and it showed some modest cooling, albeit with some wage pressure. The initial market moves were limited to 15 pips and it was the later UMich data that provided more of a jolt as the inflation readings in that report sagged. The dollar selling on both was short-lived though and it finished the day with only minor moves.
More dramatic was the selloff in bonds, that was steady and then accelerated late. The timing of the shift points to quarter-end flows but you could also weave an argument that a Republican rout and larger deficits are now more likely, as opposed to a split Congress. As for the politics, I’ll spare you the rest of the twists but it will be an interesting weekend between the efforts to push out Biden and Sunday’s vote in France.
Over in Japan, the yen sagged again despite the sacking of Kanda. The new top currency diplomat is Atsushi Mimura and my guess is that he will want to do something to establish credibility, which had evaporated under Kanda. Despite that USD/JPY rose on the day, though I’d be much more likely to point to US yields and French uncertainty for that.
Have a great weekend. Greg and Eamonn will be back next week.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Extends gains near 161.00
399217 June 29, 2024 04:45 FXStreet Market News
- USD/JPY climbs to 160.89, up 0.08%, buoyed by strong US data and rising Treasury yields.
- Technicals show buyer momentum; RSI overbought but not extreme.
- Resistance levels: 161.00, 162.00, 164.87 (Nov 1986 high), 178 (Apr 1986 high).
- Support found at 159.19 (Tenkan-Sen), 158.75 (June 24 low), 158.65 (Senkou Span A), 157.91 (Kijun-Sen).
The USD/JPY extended its gains on Friday and is set to end the week with more than 0.50% gains after US economic data spurred a jump in the US Treasury, despite increasing speculations that the US central bank could cut rates in 2024. The USD/JPY trades at 160.89, up 0.08%.
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical analysis
The USD/JPY uptrend remains intact, though traders are cautious after reclaiming the psychological 160.00 level, which is viewed as the first line of defense for Japanese authorities to intervene in the FX markets. Despite this, the pair has continued to advance steadily, increasing intervention risks.
Momentum favors buyers, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought. However, due to the strength of the uptrend, many technicians consider 80 as the threshold for “extreme” overextended conditions.
The USD/JPY first resistance levels would be the psychological marks of 161.00, 162.00, and so forth, leading up to the November 1986 high of 164.87. Beyond that, the next significant resistance is the April 1986 high of 178.
Conversely, if USD/JPY drops below 160.00, the first support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 159.19, followed by the June 24 low of 158.75. Once those levels are cleared, the next support is the Senkou Span A at 158.65, followed by the Kijun-Sen at 157.91.
USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the worldÂ’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of JapanÂ’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of JapanÂ’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJÂ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the YenÂ’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Canadian Dollar churns on Friday as market sentiment softens
399214 June 29, 2024 04:12 FXStreet Market News
- Canadian Dollar bolstered by rising market sentiment.
- Canada posted a 0.3% uptick in GDP, propping up CAD.
- US PCE inflation also ticked lower, further bolstering rate cut hopes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found some room on the high side on Friday, pushing up by a scant tenth of a percent against the US Dollar amid choppy intraday price action after key economic data broadly met market expectations. Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ticked higher and US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation figures cooled slightly.
Canada posted a slight gain in GDP growth in April, rebounding from the previous monthÂ’s flat print. A stacked US data docket also generally met market expectations, though US Personal Spending failed to meet expectations despite a post-revision improvement.
Daily digest market movers: Canadian GDP rebounds, US inflation continues to ease for now
- Canadian MoM GDP posted a 0.3% increase in April, meeting market expectations and recovering from the previous monthÂ’s 0.0%.
- US PCE Price Index inflation also eased to 2.6% YoY in May, meeting market forecasts and cooling from the previous 2.8%.
- Market bets of a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have ticked higher post-PCE. According to the CMEÂ’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are pricing in 66% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim from the Fed on September 18, up from a flat 60% pre-PCE inflation.
- University of Michigan (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations also ticked down to 3.0% in June, down from previous 3.1%.
- UoM Consumer Sentiment Index for June also surged to 68.2 from 65.6, vaulting over median market forecasts of 65.8.
Canadian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| Â | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | Â | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.10% | -0.32% | -0.13% | -0.03% |
| EUR | 0.06% | Â | 0.07% | 0.09% | -0.03% | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.04% |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.07% | Â | 0.02% | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.15% | -0.06% |
| JPY | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.02% | Â | -0.16% | -0.37% | -0.19% | -0.07% |
| CAD | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.16% | Â | -0.23% | -0.04% | 0.05% |
| AUD | 0.32% | 0.25% | 0.34% | 0.37% | 0.23% | Â | 0.19% | 0.29% |
| NZD | 0.13% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.19% | 0.04% | -0.19% | Â | 0.09% |
| CHF | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.05% | -0.29% | -0.09% | Â |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Technical analysis: Canadian Dollar recovers ground on Friday, sends USD/CAD into familiar levels
The Canadian Dollar found a bid on Friday, gaining ground against the majority of its major currency peers as markets get set to wrap up a relatively sedate trading week. The CAD gained around one-tenth of one percent against the US Dollar on Friday and climbed nearly one-quarter of one percent against the broadly-battered Japanese Yen.
USD/CAD briefly found a fresh high for the week near 1.3735 early Friday before settling back into familiar near-term lows near 1.3675. CAD strength has briefly halted a recent upswing in the pair on a Greenback bid, sending USD/CAD into a rough near-term corkscrew around the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 1.3700 handle.
USD/CAD hourly chart
USD/CAD daily chart
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (MoM)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Canada during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Canadian economic activity. The MoM reading compares economic activity in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
1644 | +1.751% | AUDJPY GBPUSD
398549 June 29, 2024 04:10 SwingFish Trading Room Journal AUDJPY • GBPUSD
Today’s risk: 1.64% [Drawdown: 1.662%] (more…)
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US Dollar sees red on soft PCE figures
399212 June 29, 2024 04:09 FXStreet Market News
- US Dollar saw a slight dip at the end of the week, clearing daily gains.
- US Dollar finds support amid high US Treasury yields.
- MayÂ’s PCE data showed an unexpected deceleration in US inflation.
The end of the week saw the US Dollar, as benchmarked by the DXY Index, settle near 105.80, after hitting a high of 106.13 earlier in the session. This follows the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, but the losses are limited by the high US Treasury yields.
The American economy remains resilient with slight inflationary signals, which is just enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from completely embracing the easing cycle.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar dips on weak PCE data
- On Friday, MayÂ’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed headline inflation soften to 2.6% YoY, down from the previous monthÂ’s 2.7%.
- Core PCE (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) has also experienced a decline to 2.6% from the previous 2.8% in April.
- US Treasury yields provide resilience to the Dollar, with the 2, 5 and 10-year rates at 4.71%, 4.32%, and 4.33%, respectively.
- Probability of a Fed rate cut in September marginally increased to 66%, up from the pre-release expectation of 64% as per CME Fedwatch Tool.
- Focus will now shift to labor market data from June.
DXY technical outlook: Positive momentum persists, index eyeing higher grounds
Despite the recent data fluctuations, the technical outlook remains positive, with indicators in green but losing some steam. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to be above 50 but appears to point downward, indicating a slight pause in the bullish momentum. The green bars are still developing in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), further facilitating the positive view but at a slower pace.
The DXY Index holds above the 20, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), confirming its ongoing positive stance. Despite the IndexÂ’s steadiness at the highs seen since mid-May, there is room for further rise, suggesting the DXY is poised for further upside with the 106.50 zone next in sight. Conversely, 105.50 and 105.00 will be areas to observe in case of a drawdown.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
At the close: S&P 500 reverses lower after touching a fresh record high
399211 June 29, 2024 04:06 Forexlive Latest News Market News
SPX daily
Closing changes:
- S&P 500 down 0.4%
- Nasdaq down 0.7%
- Russell 2000 +0.1%
- DJIA -0.1%
- Toronto TSX Comp -0.5%
The S&P 500 closed the half-year up a tidy 14% but today’s reversal from an all-time high is somewhat ominous. However against that backdrop note that the first three trading days of July are traditionally three of the strongest ones of the year.
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.
For the month, the S&P 500 rose 3.5%, the Dow rose 1.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.0%.
For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 3.9%, the Dow fell 1.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 8.3%.
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Crude Oil briefly finds fresh high before backsliding into the red on Friday
399208 June 29, 2024 04:05 FXStreet Market News
- WTI falls back below $81.00 as bullish momentum gets snipped.
- US Crude Oil initially rallied on Friday, but quickly tumbled into familiar levels.
- The EIA noted that US Crude Oil production hit fresh highs in April.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rallied into a fresh eight-week high on Friday as broad-market risk appetite stepped higher, but investor sentiment moderated during the US market session, dragging Crude Oil prices into a fresh low for the day. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that despite a slight increase in overall fossil fuel demand, gasoline demand declined further and the US continues to see near-term highs in overall production output.Â
Ongoing market hopes for a summertime increase in general Crude Oil demand continue to run aground on a rocky reality as consumer demand for fossil fuels consistently undershoots market forecasts.Â
According to the EIA, an uptick in US Crude Oil and petroleum products rose to its highest level since December, but increases in US Crude Oil production, which also rose to December peaks at 13.25 million bpd in April, is more than enough to offset supply draws. The EIA also noted a general decline in consumer-level gasoline demand, which fell to 8.83 million bpd in April, the lowest figure since February.
WTI technical outlook
WTI US Crude Oil snapped into a fresh eight-week high of $82.31 on Friday before backsliding into downside chart territory for the trading weekÂ’s final session, wrapping up the week battling the $81.00 handle. Near-term chart churn has WTI roiling under firm downside pressure from a supply zone above $81.50 per barrel.
Despite frothy intraday price action, daily candlesticks remain trapped in near-term consolidation as WTI struggles to hold onto bullish territory north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $79.00.
WTI hourly chart
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. APIÂ’s report is published every Tuesday and EIAÂ’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
21Shares files for spot Solana ETF less than 24 hours after VanEck
399207 June 29, 2024 04:05 FXStreet Market News
- Asset manager 21Shares has filed an S-1 draft with the SEC for a Solana ETF.
- The move follows an earlier SOL ETF filing from Van Eck on Thursday.
- 21Shares won’t offer SOL staking within the ETF.
Asset manager 21Shares filed an S-1 registration statement with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday for a spot Solana (SOL) ETF, about 24 hours after VanEck filed for the same product.
Other asset managers could file for SOL ETF in the coming weeks, especially after many crypto proponents speculated that presidential candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming US elections could pave the way for the launch of these products.
21Shares reveals key details in Solana ETF filing
Similar to its earlier applications with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the product will trade on the Cboe exchange, and Coinbase will serve as the trust custodian.
21Shares also intends to refrain from allowing the staking of Solana within the ETF.
“Neither the Trust, nor the Sponsor, nor the SOL Custodian, nor any other person associated with the Trust will, directly or indirectly, employ any portion of the Trust’s assets in actions where any portion of the Trust’s SOL becomes subject to the Solana proof-of-stake validation or is used to earn additional SOL or generate income or other earnings (collectively, ‘Staking Activities’),” the filing reads.
Prospective spot ETH ETF issuers had earlier updated their filings to remove staking from their applications after rumors that the SEC isn’t comfortable with the concept.
According to 21Shares’ filing on the SEC’s website, if SOL is ultimately classified as a security, “and the sponsors decide not to comply with such other regulatory and registration requirements, the sponsors will terminate the Trust,” said Wu Blockchain.
Many experts have predicted that the ETFs may be denied, as the SEC had declared Solana a security in more than two separate lawsuits. Additionally, Solana has no futures ETF product, which the SEC stated was a major determining factor in the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
But Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Strategy at VanEck seem to disagree, stating that “there are already commodity ETFs on shipping, uranium & power where futures market is immaterial for price formation.”
Focus on a “regulated [futures] market of significant size” is stupid. There are already commodity ETFs on shipping, uranium & power where futures market is immaterial for price formation.
Surveillance sharing agreements w/ spot crypto exchanges can obviate need for CME futures. https://t.co/aDGSwglcJZ— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) June 27, 2024
Solana’s price has yet to react to the news of the filing as it’s trading around $142, down about 3% in the past 24 hours.
Crypto ETF FAQs
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XRP steadies above $0.47 as Ripple President breaks silence on Real USD stablecoin
399205 June 29, 2024 04:02 FXStreet Market News
- Ripple President Monica Long commented on the upcoming stablecoin Real USD and its impact on XRP.Â
- Long said stablecoin and XRP are complementary and additive, addressing the concerns over the RLUSD launch.Â
- XRP edges higher and holds above $0.47 on Friday.Â
Ripple (XRP) President Monica Long recently appeared on The Block Podcasts and addressed XRP trader concerns about the stablecoinÂ’s launch. The payment remittance firmÂ’s stablecoin is called Real USD (RLUSD) and is slated for launch in 2024.Â
Long shared her views on the stablecoin, its role in the ecosystem, the Real World Asset (RWA) narrative, and the institutional pivot on crypto.Â
Daily digest market movers: Ripple President answers burning questions on Real USD and XRP
- Ripple President Monica Long spoke about the firmÂ’s upcoming stablecoin, Real USD, and its relationship with XRP.Â
- In the podcast interview, Long answered questions on the nature of the stablecoin and discussed the RWA narrative and shift in institutional investors and their stance on crypto.Â
- When asked about RLUSD and its impact on XRP, Long said that the stablecoin “complements” Ripple and it is “additive.”Â
- Therefore, RippleÂ’s stablecoin is designed to enhance the cross-border payment remittance narrative and seamless transfers rather than hamper XRPÂ’s utility.Â
- Long explained that XRP will continue to play central in RippleÂ’s payment solutions, RLUSD will be introduced to complement the use of the altcoin.Â
- The last update in the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit is that the regulator is asking for $102.6 million in fines against RippleÂ’s proposed $10 million.Â
Technical analysis: XRP could extend losses over the weekend
Ripple has been in a state of decline since March 11. The altcoin is struggling to break past resistance at $0.50 and could extend losses by 5%, dipping to support at $0.4508, the June 7 low.Â
The red histogram bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator supports this bearish narrative.Â
XRP/USDT daily chartÂ
If Ripple begins recovery, XRP could climb toward the nearest Fair Value Gap between $0.4825 and $0.4841. Further up, in its rally towards the psychological barrier at $0.50, Ripple faces resistance at $0.4955, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the March 11 top of $0.7440 to the April 13 low of $0.4188.Â
SEC vs Ripple lawsuit FAQs
It depends on the transaction, according to a court ruling released on July 14: For institutional investors or over-the-counter sales, XRP is a security. For retail investors who bought the token via programmatic sales on exchanges, on-demand liquidity services and other platforms, XRP is not a security.
The United States Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) accused Ripple and its executives of raising more than $1.3 billion through an unregistered asset offering of the XRP token. While the judge ruled that programmatic sales arenÂ’t considered securities, sales of XRP tokens to institutional investors are indeed investment contracts. In this last case, Ripple did breach the US securities law and will need to keep litigating over the around $729 million it received under written contracts.
The ruling offers a partial win for both Ripple and the SEC, depending on what one looks at. Ripple gets a big win over the fact that programmatic sales aren’t considered securities, and this could bode well for the broader crypto sector as most of the assets eyed by the SEC’s crackdown are handled by decentralized entities that sold their tokens mostly to retail investors via exchange platforms, experts say. Still, the ruling doesn’t help much to answer the key question of what makes a digital asset a security, so it isn’t clear yet if this lawsuit will set precedent for other open cases that affect dozens of digital assets. Topics such as which is the right degree of decentralization to avoid the “security” label or where to draw the line between institutional and programmatic sales are likely to persist.
The SEC has stepped up its enforcement actions toward the blockchain and digital assets industry, filing charges against platforms such as Coinbase or Binance for allegedly violating the US Securities law. The SEC claims that the majority of crypto assets are securities and thus subject to strict regulation. While defendants can use parts of RippleÂ’s ruling in their favor, the SEC can also find reasons in it to keep its current strategy of regulation by enforcement.
The court decision is a partial summary judgment. The ruling can be appealed once a final judgment is issued or if the judge allows it before then. The case is in a pretrial phase, in which both Ripple and the SEC still have the chance to settle.
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USD/CHF retreats from early June highs, testing 100-day SMA
399203 June 29, 2024 03:57 FXStreet Market News
- The USD/CHF pair hits early June’s highs but retreats back to 0.8990.
- USD bearishness comes in due to disappointing PCE data for May.
- The market odds for a September interest-rate cut by the Fed have slightly increased.
On Friday, the USD/CHF pair was unable to hold its momentum, depreciating due to soft Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from May. Without any significant news or data coming from Switzerland, the pair has mainly been influenced by the US data as investors place their bets on the next Federal Reserve (Fed) movements.
The highlight of Friday was the disappointing PCE) data from the US in May. The PCE inflation edged lower on a yearly basis to 2.6% in May, in line with the market expectations, from 2.7% in April. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index remained unchanged in May. As a reaction, the soft data helped increase the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed to nearly 66%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
However, Federal Reserve officials continue to caution about the possibility of an interest rate cut, with Bostic advising that he only sees one cut for this year in Q4, further adding that he has penciled in four cuts for 2025 but questions the reliability of projections so far in advance. As the Fed remains data dependent, eyes will flick to labor data from June for markets to acquire more guidance on the US economy.
The focus on the Swiss economic calendar continues to be minimal with attention being diverted towards Sunday’s first round of the French legislative elections which may induce some movement in the eurozone currencies.
USD/CHF technical analysis
Looking at the technical outlook, the pair’s positioning appears promising. The pair has solidified its position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), lending a positive outlook to the future. Despite some bearish undercurrents, the pair have maintained a four-day winning streak and gained nearly 1.50% over the last seven sessions. The focus on the buyers should be maintaining the recently gained 100-day SMA at 0.8980.
USD/CHF daily chart
Ethereum LTH accumulation and key options data reveal new price target for ETH
399199 June 29, 2024 03:56 FXStreet Market News
- Ethereum long-term holders now own 78% of ETH’s total supply.
- Spot Ethereum ETF issuers have begun marketing their products with a potential “tech play” move in the cards.
- Ethereum options data shows reduced volatility as ETH looks set to reach a new yearly high.
Ethereum (ETH) is down 2% on Friday following increased holdings among long-term holders and ETH ETF issuers launching marketing campaigns for their products. Meanwhile, ETH options data reveals key price dynamics that may see ETH reaching the $4,000 price level in the coming weeks.
Daily digest market movers: ETH long-term holders, ETH tech play
ETH long-term holders (LTHs) may play a major role in determining the direction of its price in the coming months. This is revealed in the ETH Balance by Time Held chart, which shows that 78% of ETH supply is held by LTHs, according to data from IntoTheBlock.
ETH Balance by Time Held
LTHs are typically interpreted as addresses that have held onto their tokens for over a year. Historically, heavy selling pressure from LTHs often signifies the peak of a bull cycle.
Considering that ETH LTHs’ holdings are growing, ETH could still see considerable price growth in the current cycle.
As earlier reported, LTHs may be anticipating higher prices from the upcoming launch of spot Ethereum ETFs. This is unlike Bitcoin LTHs, which have continued to shed their holdings since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, spot ETH ETF issuers have stepped up their marketing efforts. Asset manager VanEck seems to be leaning toward the decentralized applications side of the top smart contract blockchain. In a recent tweet on X, VanEck said, “Ethereum is like an open-source app store.”
This follows a series of marketing videos from Bitwise comparing Ethereum against “Big Finance.” BitwiseÂ’s Ryan Rasmussen stated that Ethereum may resonate more with Wall Street than Bitcoin. “Why? Well, most investors don’t own gold. But almost every investor owns tech,” he said.
ETH technical analysis: Ethereum could reach a new yearly high following insights from key options data
Ethereum traded around $3,390 on Friday, down 2% in the past 24 hours. ETH has seen about $24.84 million in liquidations, with long liquidations accounting for 81% and shorts for 19%.
According to Greekslive data, over 1.04M ETH options expired on Friday with a Put/Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.59, a Max Pain point of $3,100 and a notional value of $3.6 billion.
Options are derivative instruments that give you the right to buy (call) or sell (put) an underlying asset based on predetermined prices at a specific date.
While many expected the options expiry to cause high volatility for ETH today, its price has remained relatively unchanged in the past 24 hours. This aligns with ETH’s implied volatility (IV), which is at a low level, sitting below 60% for all major terms.
“It will be a cost-effective option to buy some call options while the IV is low,” said Greekslive.
ETH Deribit Options Open Interest
Additionally, Deribit’s exchange PCR has fallen to 0.27 from around 0.36 earlier in the month, according to data from Coinglass. This suggests most traders are bullish, especially with the potential launch of spot ETH ETFs. The $4,000 price level is key to watch out for as it’s the strike price of over $420 million worth of calls on Deribit.Â
While ETH looks set to follow a horizontal trend over the weekend, it may begin to see gains as the spot ETH ETF news saturates the market.
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart
ETH has to overcome the $3,629 resistance — a level it has failed to sustain a move above in the past three weeks — before it could see a further move up. A successful, sustained move above this level could see ETH rise more than 18% to test the resistance of $4,093 and potentially reach a new yearly high.
The $3,203 level may prove a crucial support for the bullish run. A breach below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis, potentially causing ETH to face a major correction.
Ethereum FAQs
Ethereum is a decentralized open-source blockchain with smart contracts functionality. Serving as the basal network for the Ether (ETH) cryptocurrency, it is the second largest crypto and largest altcoin by market capitalization. The Ethereum network is tailored for scalability, programmability, security, and decentralization, attributes that make it popular among developers.
Ethereum uses decentralized blockchain technology, where developers can build and deploy applications that are independent of the central authority. To make this easier, the network has a programming language in place, which helps users create self-executing smart contracts. A smart contract is basically a code that can be verified and allows inter-user transactions.
Staking is a process where investors grow their portfolios by locking their assets for a specified duration instead of selling them. It is used by most blockchains, especially the ones that employ Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism, with users earning rewards as an incentive for committing their tokens. For most long-term cryptocurrency holders, staking is a strategy to make passive income from your assets, putting them to work in exchange for reward generation.
Ethereum transitioned from a Proof-of-Work (PoW) to a Proof-of-Stake (PoS) mechanism in an event christened “The Merge.” The transformation came as the network wanted to achieve more security, cut down on energy consumption by 99.95%, and execute new scaling solutions with a possible threshold of 100,000 transactions per second. With PoS, there are less entry barriers for miners considering the reduced energy demands.
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