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French Elections Preview: Euro to suffer after the calm, as specter of extremists, uncertainty rise
399089 June 28, 2024 20:40 FXStreet Market News
- The first round of French parliamentary elections is set to trigger high uncertainty.
- Soothing messages from the far right and far left leave the Euro vulnerable to falls.
- Calm may return only after the second round of voting on  July 7.
More Meloni, less Truss – that is the notion of markets after the latest debate between the leading candidates in the French parliamentary elections. Fears over a populist policy that would crash Europe’s second-largest economy have receded, but that could be disrupted as markets open in Asia on Monday. EUR/USD may suffer.
Here is a preview of the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on June 30.
French President Emmanuel Macron shocked the world – including close advisors – by announcing snap elections after suffering a beating in the European Parliament vote. French stocks and the Euro were hit by uncertainty and concern that the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) may enact some of its policies. Investors are weary of its leader, Marine Le Pen.
Since Macron’s announcement, left-leaning parties provided a surprise of their own, organizing quickly under a new political formation called Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front). The leading force behind the big tent is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose policies are seen as even more extreme than those of Le Pen.
French opinion polls show Macron’s party in third place
Opinion polls show both parties lead over Macron’s Ensemble Citoyens (Together Citizens).Â
French polls of the polls. Source: FT
President Macron would continue to control foreign policy, but would lose control over domestic matters – most importantly, economic policy. There is a fear that a government led by the extremes would trigger a “Liz Truss moment” – crashing markets with populist policies that lack funding. In 2022, then-UK Prime Minister (PM) Liz Truss sent British bonds tumbling, and GBP/USD sank to around 1.03.
However, the latest debate between the candidates for French PM yielded hope. The 28-year-old Jordan Bardela of the far right and the center-left politician Olivier Faure both sounded moderate, closer to incumbent PM Gabriel Attal.
That soothed markets, which hope that even a victory for less-business-friendly candidates would resemble Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who proved cooperative with the EU, calming market fears.
French complex voting system adds to uncertainty
Voting is held on Sunday, and polls close at 20:00 local time / 18:00 GMT. The system is complex, with an outright victory in any of France’s 577 seats given only to those winning 50% of the vote. If no candidate reaches this goal, the second round is held between all candidates who receive 12.5% or more of all those registered to vote. That results in two, three or even four-headed run-offs.Â
Moreover, the counting of the votes concludes during the night – when markets in Asia are already open – and candidates who made it to the second round may still quit. For example, representatives of the center-right Les Republicans (The Republicans) may make way for a Macron-backed candidate.Â
The results of the first round would show French preferences – confirming or disproving the polls. However, the composition of parliament would be hard to assess when markets open early on Monday, or even late on Monday or Tuesday after several candidates quit.
France is set to return to scaring markets
I expect this uncertainty to cause markets to rattle and the Euro to suffer. Moreover, PM candidates’ discipline may erode on election night. The National Rally’s Jordan Bardela may circle back to rhetoric that would weigh on markets.Â
The best outcome for markets is a victory for Macron’s centrist party and a continuation of reforms led by him and PM Attal. Markets also like the smaller center-right Republicans. With the first-past-the-post voting system, the centrists have a chance to form a government, perhaps with help from moderate defectors from the leftist bloc, which is made up of four parties.Â
However, anger in France over inflation, immigration, and other topics may propel the extremists to power – more likely the far right – and that scares markets. The calm may not prevail.Â
Analysts would rush to project the outcome of the second round, held on July 7, and the picture could scare markets. Only on July 8, if parliament does not include a majority for the extremes, would markets calm. A hung National Assembly is not the best for governance, but markets would prefer Macron losing control over populists gaining it.Â
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Canada Gross Domestic Product (MoM) meets expectations (0.3%) in April
399088 June 28, 2024 20:40 FXStreet Market News
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Canada April GDP M/M 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected
399087 June 28, 2024 20:36 Forexlive Latest News Market News
- April GDP 0.3% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.0% prior.
- May Advance GDP 0.1% vs. 0.3% prior.
- Services producing industries +0.3%.
- Goods producing industries +0.3%.
- 15 of 20 sectors increasing in the month.
Wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and
manufacturing were the largest contributors to growth in April after
recording declines in the previous month. Following two consecutive
monthly decreases, retail trade was also among the top drivers of growth
in April, led by food and beverage retailers and gasoline stations
which rebounded from declines recorded in previous months.
Canada April GDP
United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.6%) in May
399086 June 28, 2024 20:35 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0%) in May
399085 June 28, 2024 20:35 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (MoM) meets expectations (0.1%) in May
399083 June 28, 2024 20:33 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY) meets expectations (2.6%) in May
399082 June 28, 2024 20:33 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Bitcoin, TON & Dogecoin– European Wrap 28 June
399078 June 28, 2024 20:26 FXStreet Market News
Bitcoin (BTC) price appears poised for a decline this week, influenced by slight outflows in US spot ETFs, selling activity among BTC miners, and a combined transfer of 4,690.28 BTC to centralized exchanges by the US and German governments. Technical indicators hint that BTC may undergo a further 5% correction in the near term before potentially continuing its upward trajectory.
The Telegram narrative for Toncoin (TON) has gained relevance among market participants, as TON price rallied nearly 20% in June on the OKX exchange. However, a new analysis from Blockworks Research suggests that TON and the Telegram narrative may be overvalued.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price has stabilized around $0.118, aligning with the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while on-chain data reveals a rising trend in DOGE’s development activity, reflecting optimistic sentiment among investors. With these indicators in place, DOGE appears poised for a bullish upswing in the coming days.
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All set for the US inflation report… and the other PCE
399077 June 28, 2024 20:21 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Happy Friday, unless you’re a Democratic Presidential candidate and the knives are coming from all directions. It will be interesting to see where this is going because the status quo doesn’t look tenable.
The market is going to have to deal with that but here’s a spoiler: Politics (and especially the President) is the most-overrated thing in politics. I think the sanguine market reaction today so far already underscores that.
But a sanguine market is no guarantee after the PCE data, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Core and headline PCE are both expected at 2.6%.
We also get Canadian April GDP, which is expected up 0.3%.
See: There is only one thing to watch for in Friday’s PCE report
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India Infrastructure Output (YoY) rose from previous 6.2%Â to 6.3% in May
399075 June 28, 2024 20:02 FXStreet Market News
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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