The Indian Rupee (INR) offers its daily gains on Friday as the upside in the US Dollar (USD) underpins the USD/INR pair. However, the INR may limit its downside on expectations of foreign inflows as Indian bonds join the JP Morgan Emerging Market (EM) Bond Index on Friday.
Foreign investors have already invested approximately $10 billion into the securities eligible to join JPMorganÂ’s index, according to Business Standard. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates at least $30 billion more in inflows in the coming months as IndiaÂ’s weighting on the index steadily rises to 10%.
Indian Rupee traders would likely observe key economic data on Friday, including the Federal Fiscal Deficit for May and FX Reserves for the week ending June 17.
On the US DollarÂ’s (USD) front, Core PCE Price Index inflation is projected to decrease YoY to 2.6% from the previous 2.8%. This data is seen as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.
The USD/INR trades around 83.40 on Friday. The analysis of the daily chart shows a broadening pattern, suggesting a potential correction before a downward movement. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the 50 level, indicating a bearish bias.
The USD/INR pair tests the immediate support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 83.40. A break below this level could potentially strengthen the bearish bias, which could lead the pair toward the lower boundary of the broadening pattern, around the 83.30 level.
Resistance on the upside is anticipated near the upper boundary of the broadening formation, around 83.70, followed by the psychological level of 84.00.
The table below shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. The US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
 | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | INR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | Â | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.28% | -0.02% |
EUR | -0.10% | Â | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.14% | 0.18% | -0.10% |
GBP | -0.02% | 0.08% | Â | 0.06% | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.26% | -0.04% |
JPY | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.06% | Â | -0.00% | 0.13% | 0.16% | -0.09% |
CAD | -0.12% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.00% | Â | 0.11% | 0.16% | -0.12% |
AUD | -0.24% | -0.14% | -0.21% | -0.13% | -0.11% | Â | 0.04% | -0.24% |
NZD | -0.28% | -0.18% | -0.26% | -0.16% | -0.16% | -0.04% | Â | -0.30% |
INR | 0.02% | 0.10% | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.24% | 0.30% | Â |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The FX Reserves released by the Reserve Bank of India presents changes in the value of official reserve assets reflecting purchases and sales (including swaps) of foreign exchange by the Central Bank, earnings on foreign securities, and transactions with official institutions overseas. A high reading is is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Rupee, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
Next release: Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:30
Frequency: Weekly
Consensus: –
Previous: $652.9B
Source: Reserve Bank of India
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