398921 June 28, 2024 12:29 ICMarkets Market News
Traders have been eagerly awaiting the release of the Federal ReserveÂ’s favoured inflation indicator this week and it should pack a powerful punch later today with some of the major currencies sitting at good levels from a technical perspective. The major focus this week has been on the Yen and no doubt that is probably where we will see the most volatility later on today, it has already jumped to fresh historic lows this morning, but the threat of intervention means that this data print will be unlikely to allow for a smooth trend break into long-term positions.
In light of the above and also the likelihood of more geopolitical machinations in Europe on the weekend, we are looking closely at the Aussie for a potential longer-term trade off the back of any significant deviation in the PCE result. Australian CPI data once again printed higher this week leading to an appreciation for the Aussie against most currencies, however it remains rangebound against the greenback with both central banks remained relatively hawkish. If this dynamic changes later today with a lower print than the expected 0.1% month-on-month increase, and recent other data releases have been pointing to that, then expect the Aussie to break into a fresh topside range. An on-target result or slightly higher print is likely to lead to more rangebound conditions as both central banks look for softer inflation conditions before committing to the long-awaited easing cycle.
The Aussie is sitting within recent ranges on the Daily chart and as indicated above, the potential for a topside break is high if we get a worse then expected PCE print, short-term resistance is sitting on trendline resistance and WednesdayÂ’s high around 0.6688 with the May high, just 26 pips higher at 0.6714 and a clean break through these levels should attract more long-term players. A stronger print, however, should push the pair back into the range with initial support on the 200-day moving average at 0.6556.
Resistance 2: 0.6714 – May High
Resistance 1: 0.6688 – Trendline Resistance and Weekly High
Support 1: 0.6556 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.6401 – Long-term Trendline Support
The post Trade the Aussie on US PCE Data first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
398919 June 28, 2024 12:10 Forexlive Latest News Market News
Well, the Biden-Trump debate has come and gone and it was rather uninspiring to say the least. Amid Biden’s incoherent responses and Trump’s falsehoods, it is another reminder of the sad reality that these are two best presidential candidates set to lead the US. It’s definitely a question to the world, how did we end up here? At this point, I think The Rock has a fair shot of taking office if he really wanted to. Let’s go ‘Murica.
Anyway, USD/JPY continues to be in the spotlight when it comes to markets at the moment. The pair is slowly testing the limits of the Japan MOF and BOJ, rising now to 161.00. Once again, the pace of the move also matters but it has been rather one-sided in the last few weeks. So, that might also be a reason for Japanese officials to step in.
In case you missed the earlier news, Kanda was replaced as Japan’s top currency diplomat here. But just be aware that it comes amid a normal reshuffle in the finance ministry. So, it’s not to say that Tokyo was unhappy about Kanda’s ability to handle the pressure. I mean, can you really blame him? He was left with very limited cards to play with from the onset.
Looking to European trading, the focus will switch towards inflation data instead. We’ll be getting the June preliminary readings for France, Spain, and Italy. At the balance, they are estimated to show some moderation in price pressures on the month but we’ll see. And after that, there is the US PCE price report to follow alongside possible month-end and quarter-end shenanigans.
0600 GMT – UK Q1 final GDP figures
0600 GMT – Germany May import price index
0645 GMT – France June preliminary CPI figures
0700 GMT – Spain June preliminary CPI figures
0700 GMT – Switzerland June KOF leading indicator index
0755 GMT – Germany June unemployment change, rate
0900 GMT – Italy June preliminary CPI figures
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
Full Article398918 June 28, 2024 11:53 Forexlive Latest News Market News
No major surprises in terms of the upcoming meeting expectations for the major central banks.
Markets are leaning towards a 66% chance of a hike for the BoJ, but with them also planning to announce bond tapering at the meeting, maybe they leave off the hikes for now. I don’t think the bank has in them to be anything but dovish, but time will tell.
Only two cuts are expected (but very close to 50/50), one for the SNB and the BoE, but so close to 50% probability means they are a coin toss right now.
All the rest are expected to leave rates on hold, but probabilities are only high on that front for the Fed and the RBNZ, the others are close to or just above 60% which means incoming data could sway it either way.
Full Article398917 June 28, 2024 11:52 ICMarkets Market News
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 105.74
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 105.14
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 106.47
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing high resistance level, specifically at the 100% Fibonacci Projection and 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating Fibonacci confluence and a historicalÂ
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish break off pivot and drop towards 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0678
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.0638
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.0725
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Instrument: EUR/JPY
Potential Direction: Strong bullish with high confidence
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off pivot and head towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 170.87
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 169.57
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 172.97
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 0.8485
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8435
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing low support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.8532
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 1.2705
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 1.2590
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension and 100% Fibonacci Projection, indicating Fibonacci confluence and suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 1.2690
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 201.40
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 198.00
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 204.84
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish break through of pivot and rise to 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.8989
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, indicating a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.8891
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.9093
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.
Pivot: 160.23
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, indicating a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 157.94
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 162.51
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance level, specifically at the 127.20% Fibonacci Extension, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price could potentially make a bearish reaction off pivot and drop to 1st support.
Pivot: 1.3656
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement and 78.60% Fibonacci Projection, indicating Fibonacci confluence and a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st support: 1.3664
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a potential area where buyers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st resistance: 1.3827
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price has crossed below the Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish break off pivot and drop towards 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6637
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.6585
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.6679
Supporting reasons: Identified as a multi-swing high resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Factors contributing to the momentum: Price is below the bearish Ichimoku cloud
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 0.6106
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 0.6037
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, specifically at the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 0.6156
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish reaction off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 39,945.31
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns with a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up for price to resume the uptrend.
1st Support: 38,793.10
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a significant area where price has found support recently.
1st Resistance: 39,622.34
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance that aligns close to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where previous rallies have faced strong selling pressures.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 18,272.20
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st Support: 18,123.03
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback support that aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price has found strong support recently.
1st Resistance: 18,338.90
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance, indicating a significant area that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bullish
Price is rising towards the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,514.06
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the all-time high, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 5,448.66
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap support that aligns close to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a significant area where price has found strong support recently.
1st resistance: 5,566.05
Supporting reasons: Identified as a resistance that aligns with a 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, suggesting a critical area where selling pressures may intensify and potentially halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bearish reaction off this level to drop towards the 1st support.
Pivot: 61,967.65
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential area where selling pressures could intensify.
1st support: 59,267.78
Supporting reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price has found strong support previously.
1st resistance: 64,492.88
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns close to a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier that could halt further upward movement.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Neutral
Price could fall towards the pivot and potentially make a bullish bounce off this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,422.86
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support, indicating a potential area where buying interests could pick up to stage a rebound.
1st Support: 3,276.36
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-low support, indicating a significant area where price has found support recently.
1st Resistance: 3,532.77
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a historical barrier where selling pressures may be encountered.
Potential Direction: Bullish
Overall Momentum of the Chart: Bullish
Price is trading close to the pivot and could potentially make a bullish break through this level to rise towards the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 82.42
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a potential breakout level that could trigger further bullish momentum.
1st Support: 80.91
Supporting Reasons: Identified as an overlap support, indicating a significant area where price could find strong support.
1st Resistance: 84.54
Supporting Reasons: Identified as a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potential barrier where selling pressures may be encountered.
Potential Direction: Bearish
Overall momentum of the chart: Bearish
Price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards 1st support.
Pivot: 2334.77
Supporting reasons: Identified as an overlap resistance level, specifically at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a potential area where sellers could enter the market after a retracement.
1st support: 2308.13
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback support level, suggesting a significant area where previous declines have found support.
1st resistance: 2351.95
Supporting reasons: Identified as a pullback resistance level, specifically at the 78.60% Fibonacci Retracement, indicating a historical point where previous rallies have faced selling pressure or reversed.
The accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information contained on this site cannot be guaranteed. IC Markets does not warranty, guarantee or make any representations, or assume any liability regarding financial results based on the use of the information in the site.
News, views, opinions, recommendations and other information obtained from sources outside of www.icmarkets.com, used in this site are believed to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy or completeness. All such information is subject to change at any time without notice. IC Markets assumes no responsibility for the content of any linked site.
The fact that such links may exist does not indicate approval or endorsement of any material contained on any linked site. IC Markets is not liable for any harm caused by the transmission, through accessing the services or information on this site, of a computer virus, or other computer code or programming device that might be used to access, delete, damage, disable, disrupt or otherwise impede in any manner, the operation of the site or of any userÂ’s software, hardware, data or property.Â
The post Friday 28th June 2024: Technical Outlook and Review first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
398913 June 28, 2024 11:51 FXStreet Market News
Bitcoin (BTC) encounters resistance near the $62,000 mark, while Ripple (XRP) mirrors BTC’s challenge around the $0.500 level. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) finds solid support around the critical price point of $3,288.
Bitcoin’s price broke below the descending wedge on Monday, declining approximately 7.5% to retest its crucial weekly support near $58,375 and rebounded by 5.8% on Tuesday.
Since Tuesday, BTC has faced resistance at the lower boundary of the broken descending wedge. At the time of writing, it trades around $61,704 on Friday.
If the lower boundary of the descending wedge around $62,000 holds as resistance, BTC could decline roughly 5% to reach its weekly support near $58,375.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are below their respective neutral levels of 50 and zero. This indicates that, according to these momentum indicators, the bearish sentiment prevails, suggesting the potential for further decline in BTCÂ’s price.
BTC/USDT daily chart
However, if BTC closes above the $63,956 level and forms a higher high in the daily time frame, it could indicate that bullish sentiment persists. Such a development may trigger a 5% rise in Bitcoin’s price, revisiting its next weekly resistance at $67,147.
Ethereum price retested its support level of $3,288, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from a swing low of $2,862 on May 14 to a swing high point of $3,977 on May 27. ETH rebounded by 5% from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and trades at around $3,457, edging up approximately 0.3% on Friday.
If this support at $3,288 holds, ETH price could rally 8% from its current trading level of $3,457 to tag its previous high of $3,717 on June 9.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator in the daily chart are both below their neutral level of 50 and zero. If bulls are indeed making a comeback, then both momentum indicators must maintain their positions above their respective neutral levels.Â
If ETH closes above $3,717, the high of June 9, it could extend an additional rally of 7% to reach its previous resistance level of $3,977.
ETH/USDT daily chart
On the other hand, if Ethereum’s daily candlestick price closes below the $3,288 level, it would produce a lower low and signal a break in the market structure. This move would invalidate the aforementioned bullish thesis, potentially triggering an extra 13% crash to the previous support level of $2,862.
Ripple’s price currently trades at $0.476, below the daily resistance level of $0.499. Despite Monday’s fall in BitcoinÂ’s price, XRP has shown resilience in its price action.
If Ripple’s price surpasses the barrier at $0.499, it could rise 7% from $0.499 to $0.532, its previous high from June 5.
In the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently below the 50 mark, indicating neutral to bearish sentiment, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains below zero, suggesting bearish momentum. Both indicators must rise above their critical thresholds of 50 for RSI and zero for AO for a sustained bullish trend. Such a development would bolster the ongoing recovery rally in the market.
If the XRP daily candlestick closes above $0.532, it could extend an additional 9% rally to $0.581, a 50% price retracement level of $0.419 and $0.744 from March 11 to April 13.
XRP/USDT daily chart
However, if the Ripple price daily candlestick closes below $0.450, marking the June 7 low, it would invalidate the bullish outlook by establishing a lower daily low. This scenario might lead to a 7% decline in XRP’s price towards the April 13 low of $0.419.
398911 June 28, 2024 11:49 FXStreet Market News
The GBP/USD pair extends the overnight late pullback from the 1.2670 region and trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently hover around the 1.2635-1.2630 area and remain well within the striking distance of the lowest level since mid-May touched on Thursday.
The British Pound (GBP) continues to be undermined by rising bets for a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August. Apart from this, some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US inflation data lifts the US Dollar (USD) to a fresh two-month high, which, in turn, is seen as another factor exerting some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. That said, the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path keeps a lid on any further gains for the buck and helps limit the downside for the currency pair.Â
From a technical perspective, the emergence of fresh selling and acceptance below the 1.2650-1.2645 confluence – comprising 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) – favors bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. That said, any subsequent slide is likely to find some support near the weekly low, around the 1.2615-1.2610 area, ahead of the 1.2600 mark, which if broken will set the stage for deeper losses.
The GBP/USD pair might then accelerate the downfall towards challenging the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the 1.2560 region en route to the 1.2500 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards testing the May monthly swing low, around the 1.2445 area.Â
On the flip side, the 1.2670 area, or the overnight peak, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 1.2700 round-figure mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that the recent corrective decline has run its course and lift the GBP/USD pair beyond the 1.2720-1.2725 supply zone, towards the 1.2800 mark. Bullish traders might then aim back towards challenging the multi-month top, around the 1.2860 region touched on June 12, and lift spot prices further towards the 1.2900 round-figure mark.
Full Article398910 June 28, 2024 11:45 ICMarkets Market News
IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 June 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
The final GDP result for the first quarter of 2024 showed the U.S. economy expanding just 1.4% QoQ. Compared to the second half of 2023, where it grew 4.9% and 3.4% in the third- and fourth-quarter respectively, the latest print highlighted a relatively muted quarter as it marked the lowest output in seven quarters. The bright spots for Q1-24 were categories such as on-residential and residential investment, and exports.
Despite rising for four months in a row, new orders for durable goods grew just 0.1% MoM in May to highlight the weakness in this sector that has been going on over the past six months. In addition, the trade deficit for the U.S. widened even further, increasing from $68.6B in March to $74.63B in April
After four consecutive weeks of higher than anticipated figures, unemployment claims finally bucked this trend by printing slightly under its forecast of 236K with a reading of 233K. The latest reading was also lower than the previous weekÂ’s 239K but slightly higher than the 4-week average of 232K.Â
To sum it all up, this was an overall ‘poor’ set of economic data points that sent the dollar index (DXY) falling from 105.95 to as low as 105.70 before reversing to retrace higher towards 105.90 by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly accelerated for the second month in a row as it rose from 1.9% to 201% YoY in June, higher than the estimate of 2.0%. This acceleration follows the same path as the BOJ’s Core CPI reading that was released on Tuesday and potentially points to sustained price increases in Japan. Should inflationary pressures gain further traction, the BoJ may be forced to act at its next policy meeting and raise interest rates – a move that could strengthen the yen.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
Chicago PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Following the ‘soft’ CPI and PPI readings for the month of May two weeks ago, the PCE Price Index is also anticipated to register a slower pace of price increases. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the greenback could face intense selling pressures later today.
PMI activity in the Chicago area has been contracting since the fourth quarter of 2022 and the estimate of 39.7 for the month of June points to another month contraction. Although PMI activity is expected to improve moderately from 35.4 to 39.7, business activity is still depressed – a result that will likely weigh on the dollar.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
PCE Price Index (12:30 pm GMT)
Chicago PMI (1:45 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Following the ‘soft’ CPI and PPI readings for the month of May two weeks ago, the PCE Price Index is also anticipated to register a slower pace of price increases. Should inflationary pressures continue to dissipate further, the greenback could face intense selling pressures later today.
PMI activity in the Chicago area has been contracting since the fourth quarter of 2022 and the estimate of 39.7 for the month of June points to another month contraction. Although PMI activity is expected to improve moderately from 35.4 to 39.7, business activity is still depressed – a result that will likely weigh on the dollar and potentially lift gold prices.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie fell to an overnight low of 0.6643 before stabilizing around this level. This currency pair was trading around 0.6650 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6630
Resistance: 0.6685
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
Matariki (Bank Holiday)
What can we expect from NZD today?
As it is a bank holiday in New Zealand, lower trading activity for the Kiwi can be expected during the Asia session but trading activity could pick up in the latter part of the day. This currency pair was trading around 0.6085 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6040
Resistance: 0.6110
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI (11:30 pm GMT 27th June)
What can we expect from JPY today?
Core CPI in Tokyo unexpectedly accelerated for the second month in a row as its rose from 1.9% to 201% YoY in June, higher than the estimate of 2.0%. This acceleration follows the same path as the BOJ’s Core CPI reading that was released on Tuesday and potentially points to sustained price increases in Japan. Should inflationary pressures gain further traction, the BoJ may be forced to act at its next policy meeting and raise interest rates – a move that could strengthen the yen.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro hit an overnight high of 1.0726 before pulling back towards 1.0700. This currency pair was trading around 1.0710 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0680
Resistance: 1.0750
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Weakness in the franc has kept USD/CHF elevated in the final trading week of June. This currency pair hovered above 0.8980 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8900
Resistance: 0.9000
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
GDP (6:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from GBP today?
The final result for first quarter GDP in the U.K. is expected to grow 0.6% QoQ following a technical recession in the second half of last year. Should GDP match or exceed its forecast, it would mark the strongest expansion in over two years with sectors such as services and land transport services pulling up overall economic output. A stronger GDP result could lift the Cable before European trading hours get underway.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
GDP (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
The monthly GDP indicator is anticipated to grow 0.3% in April following a stall in economic output in March. Industries such as manufacturing, mining, quarrying, oil & gas extraction and wholesale trade are expected to lead the rise in GDP activity. Should the reading surprise market estimates, it could function as a potential bullish catalyst for the Loonie to drive USD/CAD lower.
Central Bank Notes:
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices remain elevated as concerns about global supply disruption grow due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in the Middle East and Europe (Russia and Ukraine). WTI oil has been ranging approximately between $81 and $82.50 per barrel over the past nine trading days but it looks like it could break above this near-term resistance today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The post IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 June 2024 first appeared on IC Markets | Official Blog.
398909 June 28, 2024 11:29 FXStreet Market News
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil price extends gains for the third successive session, trading near $81.80 during the Asian session on Friday. Crude Oil prices are set to advance for the third straight week due to supply threats, which could be attributed to an escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Tensions between Israel and LebanonÂ’s Hezbollah have escalated as Hezbollah has intensified rocket and drone attacks in northern Israel in recent weeks. A broader conflict in the Middle East could potentially involve countries like Iran, a major Oil exporter in the region.
On Thursday, the French foreign ministry expressed concern over the situation in Lebanon. Earlier, Turkey declared its solidarity with Lebanon and called for support from regional governments, according to Reuters.
Reuters also cited FGE Energy on Friday, stating that Oil supplies have been pressured by weather-related disruptions, which could worsen in the coming weeks. Heavy rains have caused Ecuador’s production to decline by 100,000 barrels a day over the past week.
The US National Hurricane Center is currently tracking at least one weather system that has the potential to develop into a cyclone and head toward the US Gulf Coast. This could negatively impact a significant portion of the country’s energy and export infrastructure.
Full Article398908 June 28, 2024 11:21 FXStreet Market News
The USD/CAD pair catches fresh bids following the previous day’s good two-way price moves and spikes to a one-and-half-week high during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices, however, retreat a few pips in the last hour and currently trade around the 1.3715 region, up just over 0.10% for the day.
As investors look past Thursday’s softer US macro releases, the US Dollar (USD) regains positive traction and climbs to a fresh two-month peak, which turns out to be a key factor that provides a goodish lift to the USD/CAD pair. The intraday USD uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US inflation data, though lacks follow-through amid the uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut path. Hence, the focus will remain on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due later this Friday.
A lower-than-expected PCE deflator or a number that is in line with market expectations will back the case for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, which, in turn, could weaken the USD. Meanwhile, any upward surprise should push back the expected timing for the first Fed cut and trigger a fresh leg up for the buck. Nevertheless, the data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed’s future policy decisions, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand in the near term and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the USD/CAD pair.Â
Heading into the key data risk, growing acceptance that the Fed will start lowering borrowing costs in September amid signs of easing inflationary pressures and moderating US economic growth momentum caps the USD. The Canadian Dollar (CAD), on the other hand, draws support from a surge in domestic consumer inflation, which tempered bets for a July rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC). This, along with a further rise in Crude Oil prices to a fresh two-month top, underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and contributes to capping the USD/CAD pair.
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is CanadaÂ’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in CanadaÂ’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
398906 June 28, 2024 11:10 FXStreet Market News
Gold price has snapped its rebound from two-week lows early Friday, losing ground after running into offers near the $2,330 resistance again. The next direction for Gold price now remains in the hands of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data.
Gold price is back in negative territory in Asian trading on Friday, as the US Dollar extends ThursdayÂ’s late rebound and recovers lost ground on the back of the resumption of the USD/JPY uptrend and rising US Treasury bond yields.
Higher US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields trigger a fresh bout of selling in the non-yielding Gold price. Additionally, traders turn cautious and refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price heading into the US inflation showdown.
The US annual PCE Price Index is seen rising 2.6% in May, compared to a 2.7% increase in April while the Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred inflation measure, the core PCE figure, is expected to accelerate by 2.6% YoY, slowing from a 2.8% growth in April.
If the inflation data points to slowing price pressures, Gold price is likely to regain its recovery momentum, as the US Dollar would come under strong selling pressure on increased bets for a September rate cut. On the contrary, the US Dollar could stretch its recent advance and weigh on Gold price should the data surprise to the upside.
Markets are now pricing in about a 64% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, a tad higher than the 62% seen Thursday, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, the first US presidential election debate in the showdown to the November 5 polls had little to no impact on the value of the US Dollar and that of Gold price.
On Thursday, mixed US growth, Durable Goods Orders and housing data exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar. The Greenback already bore the brunt of the correction in the USD/JPY. This helped Gold price stage a decent comeback from two-week troughs under $2,300.
Further, Fed Governor Michele BowmanÂ’s change of words exacerbated the buckÂ’s pain. Bowman said, “I am still willing to raise rates again if inflation doesnÂ’t ease.” Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also delivered dovish remarks, suggesting that an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter was likely, with inflation moving in the right direction. Â
Gold price downside remains intact, despite the previous rebound, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level.
Therefore, any rebound in Gold price continues to remain a good selling opportunity. Â Â
Adding credence to the bearish potential, the previous weekÂ’s 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA bearish crossover continues to act as a headwind.
If sellers extend control, the $2,300 threshold will be put to test once again, below which the June low at $2,287 could come to the buyersÂ’ rescue.
Further down, the May 3 low at $2,277 will come into play. Â
Alternatively, Gold price needs to take out the 21-day SMA at $2,328 on a daily closing basis to resume the recovery from the monthly low of $2,287. Â
Further up, the 50-day SMA at $2,338 will be eyed, followed by the two-week high of $2,366.
Gold has played a key role in humanÂ’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesnÂ’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a countryÂ’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
398904 June 28, 2024 11:05 FXStreet Market News
The Australian Dollar (AUD) depreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, which could be attributed to the dovish comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser. Hauser said it would be a “bad mistake” to formulate policy in response to a single inflation report. He emphasized that there is still a suite of economic data to come that will require detailed analysis, per Bloomberg.
The AUD gained ground after releasing May’s higher-than-expected Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The persistently high inflation has fueled speculation that the RBA might raise interest rates again in August.
The US Dollar (USD) gains ground due to higher yields on US Treasury bonds. FridayÂ’s Core PCE Price Index inflation is projected to decrease YoY to 2.6% from the previous 2.8%. This data is seen as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge.
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6630 on Friday. The daily chart analysis indicates a neutral bias for the AUD/USD pair as it consolidates within a rectangle formation. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the 50 level, also suggesting neutral momentum. Further movement may signal a clear directional trend.
The AUD/USD pair finds support around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6618. A break below this level could lead the pair to test the lower boundary of the rectangle formation near 0.6585.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may face resistance near the upper boundary of the rectangle formation around 0.6695, close to the psychological level of 0.6700. Further resistance appears at 0.6714, the highest level since January.
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the weakest against the US Dollar.
 | USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | Â | 0.10% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.12% | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.08% |
EUR | -0.10% | Â | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.02% | 0.09% | 0.10% | -0.02% |
GBP | -0.03% | 0.06% | Â | 0.02% | 0.07% | 0.16% | 0.15% | 0.01% |
JPY | -0.10% | 0.03% | -0.02% | Â | 0.02% | 0.12% | 0.10% | -0.01% |
CAD | -0.12% | -0.02% | -0.07% | -0.02% | Â | 0.08% | 0.07% | -0.07% |
AUD | -0.21% | -0.09% | -0.16% | -0.12% | -0.08% | Â | -0.01% | -0.14% |
NZD | -0.20% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.10% | -0.07% | 0.00% | Â | -0.14% |
CHF | -0.08% | 0.02% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.14% | Â |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is AustraliaÂ’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is AustraliaÂ’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.